The leaders of Vietnam and Russia have said they want to boost ties as the pair met in the Vietnamese capital of Hanoi.

Vietnamese President To Lam was full of praise for his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, congratulating him on his recent re-election.

Mr Putin, in return, said strengthening a strategic partnership with the south-east Asian country was one of Russia’s priorities.

His trip to Vietnam, which comes on the heels of his lavish visit to North Korea, is being interpreted as a demonstration of the diplomatic support Russia still enjoys in the region.

“Congratulations to our comrade for receiving overwhelming support during the recent presidential election, underlining the confidence of the Russian people,” President Lam said after Mr Putin was given a red carpet welcome.

The United States has criticised the visit for giving a platform for President Putin to promote his war of aggression in Ukraine.

Vietnam still values the historic ties it has with Russia even as it works to improve its relationship with Europe and the US.

Looming over a small park in Ba Dinh, Hanoi’s political quarter, a five-meter high statue of Lenin depicts the Russian revolutionary in heroic pose. On his birthday every year a delegation of senior Vietnamese officials solemnly lay flowers and bow their heads before the statue, a gift from Russia when it was still the Soviet Union.

Vietnam’s ties to Russia are close and go back many decades, to the vital military, economic and diplomatic support given by the Soviet Union to the new communist state in North Vietnam in the 1950s.

Vietnam has described their relationship as “filled with loyalty and gratitude”. After Vietnam invaded Cambodia in 1978 to throw out the murderous Khmer Rouge regime, it was isolated and sanctioned by China and the West, and depended heavily on Soviet assistance. Many older Vietnamese, including the powerful communist party secretary-general Nguyen Phu Trong, studied in Russia and learned the language.

Today Vietnam’s economy has been transformed by its integration into global markets. Russia has fallen far behind China, Asia, the US and Europe as a trading partner. But Vietnam still uses mainly Russian-made military equipment, and relies on partnerships with Russian oil companies for oil exploration in the South China Sea.

The invasion of Ukraine presented Vietnam with a diplomatic challenge, but one it has so far managed to meet. It has chosen to abstain on the various resolutions at the United Nations condemning Russia’s actions, yet maintained good relations with Ukraine and even sent some aid to Kyiv. They also share a legacy from the Soviet era; thousands of Vietnamese have worked and studied in Ukraine.

This is all in keeping with Vietnam’s long-held foreign policy principles of being friends with everyone but avoiding all formal alliances – what the communist party leadership now calls ‘bamboo diplomacy’, bending with the buffeting winds of great power rivalry without being forced to take sides.

It is why Vietnam has so readily upgraded its relations with the US, a country against which its older leaders fought a long and destructive war, in the interests of seeking lucrative markets for Vietnamese exports and balancing its close ties with its giant neighbour China.

The US has objected to President Putin’s official visit to Vietnam on the grounds that it undermines international efforts to isolate him, but it can hardly be surprised. Aside from the special historical links with Russia, public sentiment in Vietnam on the war in Ukraine is more ambivalent than in Europe.

There is some admiration for Putin as a strongman who defies the West, and scepticism, fuelled partly by social media commentary, of the US and European claims to be upholding international law.

This is also true in other Asian countries, where the Ukraine war is seen as a faraway crisis. In Thailand, for example, a historic military ally of the US which was on the opposite side to Russia during the Cold War, public opinion is just as divided as in Vietnam. Thais too value the even older links between its monarchy and the pre-revolutionary Tsars of Russia, and the Thai government maintains close ties with Russia today, valuing the contribution millions of Russians make to its tourist industry.

How long Vietnam maintains its camaraderie with Vladimir Putin is less clear. It is already seeking alternative sources of military equipment, but ending its current dependence on Russia will take years.

A series of high-level resignations inside the communist party recently suggest intense internal rivalries over the next generation of leaders, and, potentially, over which direction the country will take. But there is no talk yet of abandoning the ambition of being friends to all, and enemies of none.

Source: BBC

The head of the Israel Defence Forces said the army is facing troop shortages amid rising casualties in the war against Hamas in Gaza. Yet enlisting more troops is difficult due to rising public opposition to the war and an open conflict between Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his defence minister.

The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) is facing increasing challenges as the war against Hamas enters its ninth month. On Monday, Israel lost eight soldiers in an explosion in Rafah, in what Israeli media called the “deadliest incident for IDF” in six months. The number might seem small in the context of the war in Gaza, but the number is far too high for Israeli public opinion.

A week before the explosion, Hamas claimed to have killed an unspecified number of Israeli soldiers after its fighters detonated a booby-trapped house in Rafah.

‘An exhausted army’

The losses underscored Israel’s army chief Herzi Halevi’s warning in recent days about shortages in the military, saying it would prevent Israel from waging the war against Hamas with the same intensity.

Amid a shortage of troops, the army is also facing an unstable political landscape. The relationship between the army and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has deteriorated significantly, with Netanyahu reportedly criticising plans announced by the military to hold daily tactical pauses in fighting to facilitate the delivery of aid to the Palestinian enclave.

The Israeli army is also facing domestic pressure from a population shocked by the Palestinian death toll caused by the Israeli offensive in Gaza. Skirmishes erupted on Monday night between police and anti-government protesters who took to the streets of Jerusalem, before marching to Netanyahu’s private home in the city, to show their discontent over the handling of the war with Hamas in Gaza.

“The IDF is totally exhausted after more than eight months of war,” said Ahron Bregman, a political scientist and specialist in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at King’s College London. “The IDF command, and the defence minister too, are desperate for a break to regroup.”

The Israeli army does not officially comment on the state of fatigue of its troops, but the signs are clear. “We are seeing examples of sooner-than-expected rotation of brigades and battalions,” said Steven Wagner, historian and lecturer in international security at Brunel University London. In other words, the soldiers need more frequent breaks.

Many experts say the October 7 attack on Israeli soil and the intensity of the response decided by Netanyahu’s government, which requires a long-term commitment, surprised an army that was “too small” for the task. Israeli military strategists thought that the era of major regional wars – such as the Six-Day War in 1967 or the Yom Kippur War in 1973 – was over, said Bregman. As a result, “the army disbanded six divisions over the last 20 years. Today it is missing approximately two entire divisions, or 10,000 additional soldiers”.

Finding more soldiers

The situation is complicated by increased fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces on Israel’s northern border with Lebanon, reported the US public radio NPR. An extension of the war in the north “would be catastrophic for both Lebanon and Israel”, said Bregman.

“In terms of soldiers, tanks and quality of equipment everything is fine on paper for a short war. But in terms of a long war with Hezbollah, no, Israel isn’t ready, and it’s mainly about morale,” said Omri Brinner, a Middle East analyst at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona (ITSS). 

Despite this, the Israeli military on Tuesday said that “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated”. By Wednesday, the military said its warplanes had struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon overnight.

Under the circumstances, the priority of Israel’s defence ministry – as well as the army chief – is to increase troop numbers. “The easiest solution would be to mobilise the ultra-Orthodox, but this would be politically delicate for Netanyahu,” said Brinner.

The contribution to the army would be significant. In 2023, over 60,000 young men from the ultra-Orthodox community received an exemption from military service.

Scrapping this privilege authorised by Israeli law would infuriate the ultra-religious and far-right parties, which currently constitute the main source of support for Netanyahu’s government.

The government is therefore looking for other solutions for the manpower shortage. It is preparing to adopt a new bill delaying retirement for IDF reservists. The proposal would raise the exemption age for reserve military service from 40 to 41 for soldiers and from 45 to 46 for officers.

“It’s clearly a way to deal with the fatigue issue,” said Wagner. But using older reservists in high-risk areas would “bring the quality of the army down”, he warned.

Netanyahu vs Gallant

Even if the army found the resources to sufficiently increase its numbers, “strategic command problems at the highest level” will still exist, said Brinner.

Netanyahu’s dissolution of the war cabinet earlier this week has plunged the army into strategic limbo.

“Netanyahu is under intense pressure from his allies on the right,” said Brinner, noting that the Israeli leader’s reliance on the ultra-religious parties has reduced his ability to maneuver around the thorny issue of enlisting ultra-Orthodox members in the armed services.

The Israeli prime minister could theoretically rely on his defence minister, Yoav Gallant, but “the situation is unprecedented, with the two men cordially hating each other and ready to jump at each other’s throats at the slightest opportunity”, said Wagner.

At a time of serious challenges, the Israeli army needs troops as well as clear direction from above. While the army can hold out for a few more months, experts say the stated goals of destroying Hamas and freeing all the hostages are unattainable under the current circumstances.

Source: France 24