Fitch Ratings has affirmed Cameroon’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a negative outlook. In a note, Fitch revealed that the negative reflects political risks related to potential succession issues and structural weaknesses in public finance management (PFM).

This is evidenced by weak liquidity management, late external debt payments, and accumulation of domestic arrears, according to the rating note. Cameroon’s ratings are supported by its resilient GDP growth, a manageable debt maturity schedule and expectations that moderate budget deficits and debt levels will be supported by non-oil revenue mobilization and spending restraint.

Analysts added that this is balanced against low GDP per capita, weak governance indicators, and persistent security challenges. The 92-year-old President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, will likely run in the presidential election, scheduled for October 2025, Fitch said.

The rating note stated that social and political tensions could increase in the run-up to the election, increasing concerns about Cameroon’s political stability, policy continuity and commitment to reform – which underpin bilateral support.

The lack of a succession plan and political divisions and rivalries within the ruling party exacerbate the risk of a disorderly transition of power. The rating note revealed that the country’s weaknesses in budget planning and execution, and debt management weigh on the rating.

The government’s exceptional spending procedures remain high, albeit declining, due to constant unexpected security spending and liquidity pressures.  PFM weaknesses are evidenced by occasional late external debt service payments.

It was revealed in July that Cameroon was late in making external debt payments to one commercial creditor in March 2024. Moreover, in 2024, Cameroon has cleared XAF467 billion of domestic arrears using proceeds of a private placement issuance and resources lent by Afreximbank.

“We see continued risk of arrears accumulation given a projected financing shortfall”, Fitch Ratings said amidst country’s tight finance.

In 2004, Cameroon is unlikely to obtain budgeted financing from the World Bank of USD200 million, due to delays in implementing structural reforms, Fitch stated.

Analysts explained that the projected shortfall in financing will be compensated by spending cuts. The funds could be disbursed in 2025, but the electoral context may further slow reform implementation.

“Nevertheless, we expect Cameroon’s funding needs will be covered through the existing IMF programme, ending June 2025, and official creditor support tied to the completion of the reviews”.

The government will also rely on the regional bond market.

Fitch baseline assumes strong support from official creditors will continue over the medium term, with a potential renewal of the IMF programme in 2026, which is key for the financing plan. Cameroon has limited fiscal room, and fiscal consolidation is being driven by spending cuts, mainly on capex under-execution.

“We forecast the fiscal balance on a commitment basis will shift to a surplus of 0.1% of GDP in 2024, remaining broadly stable in 2025-2026.

“Oil revenues will decline due to lower oil prices and production, but non-oil revenues will continue to improve through revenue mobilisation measures, tax exemptions reduction, and improvement in tax and customs administrations”.

Fitch also forecast the fiscal deficit on a cash basis to widen from 0.4% of GDP in 2023 to 1.6% in 2024, as net repayment of arrears is expected at 1.7% of GDP at end-2024.

“We expect the cash deficit will decline to 0.7% of GDP in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, although the pace of net repayment of arrears casts uncertainty on the fiscal trajectory”. The government is committed to reduce fuel subsidies, increasing retail petroleum prices in 2024 by 15%, after a 21% rise in 2023.

However, given the importance of social stability and the presidential election, we assume the government will not increase petroleum prices in 2025, delaying the phasing out of fuel subsidies.

“We estimate fiscal financing needs, at 5.7% of GDP in 2024, will decline to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, owing to lower cash deficit and arrears repayment. We project fiscal financing needs will increase to 5.4% of GDP in 2026 as domestic debt amortisation will amount to 2.6% of GDP after 2.1% in 2024.

“External debt amortisation will increase from 2.0% of GDP in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026, including Eurobond payment at 0.1% of GDP per year”. Fitch project GDP growth and moderate cash budget deficits will maintain government debt on a declining path from 41.7% of GDP in 2023 to 36.3% in 2026, below the ‘B’ median forecast of 56.4%.

Also, analysts expect real GDP growth to increase to 3.7% in 2024 from 3.2% in 2023. “We forecast growth at 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, driven by agriculture, construction, and the coming on-stream of infrastructure and electricity projects, below the ‘B’ median forecast of 4.7%”.

Downside risks to growth stem from geopolitical uncertainties leading to renewed commodity price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and inflationary pressures. The 2025 presidential election threatens reform implementation and increases security and social risks.

Analysts forecast the current account deficit (CAD) to narrow from 4.1% of GDP in 2023 to 3.6% of GDP in 2024 owing to higher cocoa prices supporting exports. Fitch projects the CAD will fall to 3.2% of GDP in 2025-2026, as the decline in oil production will be offset by the implementation of the import substitution policy, while exports will increase thanks to stronger agricultural production.

Source: dmarketforces

Cameroon Telecommunications (Camtel) plans to launch mobile financial services sometime next year once it has completed a feasibility study this year, an executive said on Thursday as the state-owned operator looks to challenge Orange and MTN.

Mobile operators have been expanding in financial services across Africa, where a large part of the population does not have good access to traditional banking.

In Cameroon, South Africa-based mobile operator MTN (MTNJ.J), opens new tab and French telecom operator Orange (ORAN.PA), opens new tab dominate the mobile money space. Other fintechs are also making a play in that space.

Camtel’s mobile financial services business called Blue Money will be housed under its commercial unit Blue.

“Blue Money will be launched very soon. We’re finalising studies around the regulatory environment and the market to be able to deploy,” Gilbert Ngono, Director of Cooperation at Camtel said in an interview at Africa Tech in Cape Town.

“This year we’re finalising that part and next year is really the year where we’re going to see an acceleration and deployment of Blue Money.”

Source: Reuters

Bank lending in Cameroon reached a record CFA5,607 billion between December 2023 and June 2024, representing a 3.75% increase compared to the previous six months. This data comes from the regulatory reports of the Collection, Processing, and Feedback System for Banks and Financial Institutions (Cerber), established by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) and Cameroon’s National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF).

Afriland First Bank (AFB), owned by Cameroonian billionaire Paul Fokam Kammogne, led the market with CFA1,280.5 billion in loans over the period. Right behind AFB was Société Générale Cameroun (SGC), a subsidiary of the French Société Générale group, which issued CFA771.3 billion in credit.

Banque Atlantique Cameroun (BAC), a branch of the Ivorian Atlantic Financial Group (AFG), took the third position, issuing CFA538.2 billion in loans. Société Commerciale de Banque (SCB) Cameroun, owned by Morocco’s Attijariwafa group, followed with CFA521.4 billion, while Commercial Bank Cameroun (CBC) completed the top five with CFA489.9 billion in loans.

Other notable players included Bicec, a part of Morocco’s Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP), which loaned out CFA455 billion; BGFI, owned by Gabon’s BGFI Group, at CFA441 billion; CCA Bank, a local Cameroonian institution, with CFA308 billion; UBA, the Nigerian UBA Group’s subsidiary, providing CFA265 billion; and Ecobank, a pan-African group, lending CFA167 billion.

The remaining eight banks—Citibank, NFC-Bank, Standard Bank, Bange Bank, La Régionale Bank, UBC, BC-PME, and Access Bank—collectively issued over CFA370 billion in loans.

The credit market grew by 3.75% in the first half of the year, with AFB leading the growth at 3.14%, as the only bank to lend over CFA1,000 billion. Newer players in the market, like Equatorial Guinea’s Bange Bank and Nigeria’s Access Bank, posted the highest growth rates of 73.28% and 26.43%, respectively. Financial expert Danny Dior Ngongang noted, “It’s expected for these banks to grow rapidly, as they are working to establish themselves and catch up.”

Source: Business in Cameroon

Shareholders in YUP Cameroon, a mobile payment subsidiary of Société Générale, have lost nearly $8 million (around CFA4.8 billion) as the company shut down in 2022, according to a liquidation notice disclosed by Africa Intelligence. Société Générale Cameroon held over 80% of the company, while other shareholders included the State of Cameroon and Allianz Cameroon, though their stakes weren’t specified.

On March 1, 2022, Nicolas Pichou, CEO of Société Générale Cameroon, informed employees of YUP’s closure. Launched in 2017 across seven African countries Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Guinea, Ghana, and Madagascar—the platform struggled to maintain profitability despite its reach. Pichou explained that despite efforts to expand market share and enhance customer experience, YUP could not create a viable model, and market conditions made its continuation unsustainable.

Following the announcement, YUP set a three-month deadline from March 15, 2022, to reimburse customer deposits. During an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting on December 29, 2023, in Douala, YUP entered liquidation, with financial expert Manfred Penda appointed as liquidator.

YUP’s Mobile Market Struggle: 96% of Accounts Remained Inactive

Despite five years of effort in Cameroon’s dynamic mobile money market, YUP’s offering failed to achieve profitability. The dominant positions of established operators, MTN and Orange, posed a significant challenge. These two companies, having entered the market nearly a decade before YUP, established extensive networks with their MTN Mobile Money and Orange Money services, leaving little room for new players.

A 2022 report from the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) highlights the scale of YUP’s struggle. By the time it shut down in March 2022, YUP Cameroon had attracted 689,071 mobile money customers,pale in comparison to the more than 21 million accounts registered in Cameroon that year. Even more telling, only 22,332 of YUP’s accounts were active, meaning that over 96% of accounts saw little to no use after their initial setup.

Meanwhile, Orange and MTN continue to vie for dominance. In 2021, Orange Cameroon claimed 70% of the mobile money market with 10 million accounts and over 100,000 business partners. However, MTN Cameroon’s CEO, Mitwa Ng’ambi, countered this, stating that MTN’s Mobile Money Corporation now boasts the country’s largest active user base, solidifying its leadership in mobile financial services.

Source: Business in Cameroon

Cameroon’s public debt rose significantly in the first nine months of 2024. According to data from Cameroon’s debt management agency, the national sinking fund (CAA), the country’s Treasury borrowed CFA1.079 trillion from international lenders between January and September. Ten new loans were signed with various financial institutions to support development projects and help accelerate domestic debt payments.

Breaking down the figures, the largest borrowing occurred in July 2024 when Cameroon secured CFA323.8 billion from American bank Citi Group. These funds aimed to speed up the payment of overdue domestic bills that had been pending at the Treasury for over three months, in line with Cameroon’s economic program with the IMF.

Besides the international bond from Citi Group, Cameroon also signed project loans totaling CFA775.4 billion in the first three quarters. These project loans represent almost 72% of the total foreign borrowings so far, achieving 79.5% of the annual target set in the 2024 revised budget law, which capped project loans at CFA950 billion.

Higher Interest Rates

The CAA report highlighted that 60.1% of these loans were at non-concessional, market-level interest rates, amounting to CFA446.5 billion. In contrast, 39.9% were concessional loans, totaling CFA308.8 billion, which typically carry lower rates. This reliance on higher-interest loans means Cameroon is now borrowing more from commercial banks like Standard Chartered, Exim Bank USA, and Citi Group, which generally don’t offer reduced rates like multilateral institutions such as the World Bank or IMF.

This shift towards non-concessional loans increases Cameroon’s interest obligations, further straining public finances. For example, in just the first nine months of 2024, Cameroon’s Treasury paid CFA250 billion in interest to international lenders. To put this in perspective, this amount could fund projects like the construction of Douala’s second bridge over the Wouri River (estimated at CFA140 billion) and cover the CFA100 billion needed to rehabilitate the Lagdo Dam (72 MW) in northern Cameroon, which remains critical for electricity supply in the region.

Source: Business in Cameroon

Cameroon’s Directorate General of Customs (DGD), under the Ministry of Finance, held its 196th session today to approve customs violation cases covering October 15 to October 30. According to the customs communication office, over CFA1 billion in compromised or evaded duties was recovered. CFA1.3 billion in fines was imposed on various violators of customs regulations.

Common violations observed included undeclared goods imports (55 cases), false declarations of goods values (51 cases), and missing Value and Classification Reports (RVC) for calculating applicable duties and taxes on imports (45 cases).

An internal DGD source stated that the goal for 2024 is to reach the 200th approval session, surpassing the 15 sessions held in 2023. This milestone aims to secure higher revenues from importers and exporters who often sidestep customs regulations.

Source: Business in Cameroon

On October 22, the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) launched a new liquidity injection operation for commercial banks. Unlike the previous two operations, where BEAC offered CFA340 billion, the offer on October 22 was reduced to CFA300 billion.

This reduction seems more in line with the current needs of the banks, based on recent results. Despite the gradual increase in liquidity offers by the central bank since resuming operations in June 2024, the volumes requested and actually taken up by the banks in the last two operations barely exceeded CFA270 billion. This is far from the CFA400-500 billion demands expressed by banks between June and September 2024.

The surge in liquidity needs during this period can be explained by the austerity imposed on credit institutions from late 2021 to May 2024 by the central bank. This period saw the implementation of measures aimed at draining banks’ coffers, including raising key interest rates, intensifying liquidity withdrawal operations, and suspending liquidity injections. These actions were officially intended to combat inflation by restricting access to credit.

BEAC notes that 20% of inflation in the Cemac region is of monetary origin. The central bank explains that injecting large volumes of liquidity into the economic system, particularly through bank financing, contributes to inflation, especially in Cemac countries where most goods and services are imported.

However, with the easing of inflationary pressures in Cemac markets since the start of 2024, BEAC has loosened its grip on bank liquidity. Consequently, the central bank resumed its liquidity injection operations in June 2024, after more than a year of suspension.

Source: Business in Cameroon

Cameroonian dollar bonds dropped for a third consecutive day as speculation about the health of the nation’s president raised concerns about a potential succession battle.

The country’s debt ranked among the worst performers Wednesday in an index tracking frontier and emerging market sovereign bonds. President Paul Biya has been absent from public view since early September, though the government said the 91-year-old leader was healthy.

Source: Bloomberg