Oil futures plunged below zero on Monday, the latest never-before-seen number to come out of the economic coma caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Stocks and Treasury yields also dropped on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 down 1.8%, but the market’s most dramatic action by far was in oil, where the cost to have a barrel of US crude delivered in May plummeted to negative $37.63. It was at roughly $60 at the start of the year.

Traders are still paying $20.43 for a barrel of US oil to be delivered in June, which analysts consider to be closer to the “true” price of oil. Crude to be delivered next month, meanwhile, is running up against a stark problem: traders are running out of places to keep it, with storage tanks close to full amid a collapse in demand as factories, automobiles and airplanes sit idle around the world.

Tanks at a key energy hub in Oklahoma could hit their limits within three weeks, according to Chris Midgley, head of analytics at S&P Global Platts. Because of that, traders are willing to pay others to take that oil for delivery in May off their hands, so long as they also take the burden of figuring out where to keep it.

“Almost by definition, crude oil has never fallen more than 100%, which is what happened today,” said Dave Ernsberger, global head of pricing and market insight at S&P Global Platts.

“I don’t think any of us can really believe what we saw today,” he said. “This kind of rewrites the economics of oil trading.”

Also exacerbating the volatility is that few traders are buying and selling US oil to be delivered in May. They won’t even have the opportunity to do so after Tuesday, when trading contracts for it expire and the earliest delivery they’ll be able to buy is for June.

Brent crude, the international standard, fell nearly 9% to $25.57 per barrel.

A dismal 2020

The plunge in oil sent energy stocks in the S&P 500 to a 3.7% loss, the latest in a dismal 2020 that has caused their prices to nearly halve.

Halliburton lurched between gains and sharp losses, even though it reported stronger results for the first three months of 2020 than analysts expected. The oilfield engineering company said that the pandemic has created so much turmoil in the industry that it “cannot reasonably estimate” how long the hit will last. It expects a further decline in revenue and profitability for the rest of 2020, particularly in North America.

The S&P 500 fell 51.40 points to 2,823.16. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 592.05 points, or 2.4%, to 23,650.44, and the Nasdaq dropped 89.41, or 1%, to 8,560.73.

The losses ate into some of the big gains indexes have made since late March, driven lately by investors anticipating the potential reopening of businesses as infections level off in hard-hit areas. Pessimists have called the rally overdone, pointing to the severe economic pain sweeping the world and continued uncertainty about how long it will last.

“The government can declare whatever they want in terms of encouraging people to get out and do stuff,” said Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Baird. “Whether or not broad swaths of society do that remains to be seen. It’s going to take seeing people start to get out and do stuff again. That will be the necessary positive development, not just declaring getting things open.”

New stay-at-home economy

More gains from companies that are winners in the new stay-at-home economy helped limit the market’s losses. Netflix jumped 3.4% to set another record as people shut in at home look to fill their time. Amazon added 0.8%.

In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.1%. The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong lost 0.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.8%.

European markets were modestly higher. The German DAX was up 0.5%, the French CAC 40 was up 0.7% and the FTSE 100 in London gained 0.7%.

In a sign of continued caution in the market, Treasury yields remained extremely low. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 0.62% from 0.65% late Friday.

Stocks have been on a general upward swing recently, and the S&P 500 just closed out its first back-to-back weekly gain since the market began selling off in February. Promises of massive aid for the economy and markets by the Federal Reserve and US government ignited the rally, which sent the S&P 500 up as much as 28.5% from a low on March 23.

More recently, countries around the world have tentatively eased up on business-shutdown restrictions put in place to slow the spread of the virus.

But health experts warn the pandemic is far from over and new flareups could ignite if governments rush to allow “normal” life to return prematurely. The S&P 500 remains nearly 17% below its record high as millions more US workers file for unemployment every week amid the shutdowns.

Many analysts also warn that some of the the recent rally for stocks is due to expectations the economy will pivot quickly and rebound sharply once economic quarantines are lifted. Those could prove to be too optimistic.

“There’s still uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the economy,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and derivatives strategist at BTIG. “Come fall, are we going to be back on airplanes? Are we going to go out and eat?”

Source:AP

The ranks of Americans thrown out of work by the coronavirus ballooned Thursday to more than 20 million in just four weeks, an unprecedented collapse fueling widening protests and propelling President Donald Trump’s push to relax the nation’s social distancing guidelines.

Trump planned to announce new recommendations later in the day, despite warnings from business leaders and governors that more testing and protective gear are needed first.

The government said 5.2 million more people applied for unemployment benefits last week, bringing the running total to about 22 million out of a U.S. work force of roughly 159 million — easily the worst stretch of U.S. job losses on record.

Some economists say the unemployment rate could reach 20% in April, the highest since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

While some leaders and citizens have called on government to reopen stores, factories and schools, health authorities and many politicians warned that returning to normal is a distant goal and that easing up on restrictions too soon could allow the virus to come storming back.

The decision of when and how to ease up rests with state and local leaders, who imposed the mandatory lockdowns and other restrictions put in place over the past month.

The outbreak has infected more than 2 million people worldwide and killed more than 137,000, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, though the true numbers are believed to be much higher. The death toll in the U.S. reached about 31,000, with over 600,000 confirmed infections.

Fallout from the virus spread in ways both predictable and devastating, from police torching an illicit food market in Zimbabwe, to emergency flights carrying foreign farm workers to Britain and Germany, and protests at U.S. state capitols against job losses.

In France, Amazon suspended operations after a court ruled it wasn’t doing enough to protect its workers in the country. The online retailer has six warehouses in France.

In Britain, a government survey found that a quarter of companies had suspended business. Cargo traffic at Europe’s massive port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands sank 9.3% in the first quarter from the same period a year ago, and its CEO warned of worse to come.

The World Health Organization’s European chief said optimism that the spread of the virus is declining in Italy, Spain and France has been tempered by the knowledge that it is rising or remaining at a high level in Britain, Russia and Turkey.

“The storm clouds of this pandemic still hang heavily over the European region,” Dr. Hans Kluge said.

On Wednesday, the U.S. reported that American industrial output shriveled in March, registering its biggest decline since the nation demobilized in 1946 at the end of World War II. Retail sales fell by an unprecedented 8.7%, with April expected to be far worse.

The International Monetary Fund said fallout from what it calls the “Great Lockdown” will be the most devastating since the Depression.

That has made leaders all the more anxious to send people back to work and school and to rebuild devastated economies.

Italy’s hardest-hit region of Lombardy is pushing to relaunch manufacturing on May 4, the day that the national lockdown is set to lift. Regional officials are considering ordering companies to stagger opening hours to avoid cramming public transportation.

But Italy’s deputy economic development minister, Stefan Buffagni, called the plan premature: “Going in a random order risks fueling confusion among citizens and businesses.”

In the U.S., thousands came out in Michigan and Oklahoma to protest the lockdowns they say have destroyed livelihoods.

In Michigan, some were masked and armed with rifles, but many unmasked people defied stay-at-home orders and jammed nearly shoulder-to-shoulder in front of the Capitol building in Lansing. In Oklahoma, cars plastered with protest signs drove past the Statehouse in Oklahoma City: “All jobs are essential,” read one sign on the back of a pickup truck.

“This arbitrary blanket spread of shutting down businesses, about putting all of these workers out of business, is just a disaster. It’s an economic disaster for Michigan,” said protester Meshawn Maddock.

In Michigan’s northern Leelanau County, Sheriff Mike Borkovich said enforcing the restrictions is taking a toll.

“People are frantic to get back to work. They have been very edgy,” he said.

Troubling data indicate the worst may still be to come in many parts of the world.

Japan’s prime minister announced he would expand a state of emergency to the entire country, rather than just urban areas, as the virus continued to spread. Japan has the world’s oldest population, and the elderly are especially vulnerable to the coronavirus.

The British government was set Thursday to extend a nationwide lockdown for several more weeks, as health officials say the coronavirus outbreak in the country is peaking. Britain awaited its first flight of Romanian farm workers, and more than 30,000 other workers registered for flights to Germany to help plant and harvest.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged stepped-up efforts to prepare Africa for the virus, warning that the continent “could end up suffering the greatest impacts.”

In Zimbabwe, where food was scarce even before the outbreak, police raided a market, torching 3 tons of fresh fruit and vegetables and scattering farmers who had broken travel restrictions to try to sell their crops.

(AP)

It’s a grim truth that times are good for the coffin business when they’re bad for people, and the coronavirus pandemic is no exception.

At a factory belonging to Europe’s largest coffin maker, OGF, in eastern France, workers are doing overtime to meet demand from families parting with their loved ones.

“Due to the epidemic, we decided to manufacture just four models of coffins that are top sellers with families” compared to the 15 types usually on offer, said factory director Emmanuel Garret.

The change “allowed us to optimise production”, he added.

Output has risen to 410 coffins per day, compared to 370 normally.

Workers are putting in nearly an extra hour per day.

“People have been forewarned and are ready to come in and work on Saturdays,” said Didier Pidancet, who heads up the team that selects the wood for the coffins.

France has been one of the countries worst hit by the coronavirus.

“We’re proud to be participating in this national effort, we’re doing our best to ensure that victims can have their final overcoat, as we say,” added Pidancet.

– No shortages –

Founded in 1910, the factory in the town of Jussey originally produced wood charcoal and flooring. At the outset of World War II it began to specialise in making coffins.

It is now part of the OGF Group, which has two factories including the one at Jussey, and makes one in four coffins used in France.

The 10 hectare (25 acre) site is responsible for the entire process of producing coffins. It strips the logs, cuts then dries the wood, which is eventually crafted and assembled into coffins.

The wood, mostly oak, comes from local forests.

While temporarily cutting back on the number of models, the factory has made another adjustment: it has been making more larger coffins.

“Orders for larger sizes are up a bit,” said Garret, although he declined to draw a link to reports that COVID-19 mortality rates are higher for overweight people.

While many manufacturers have encountered problems as lockdown restrictions complicate deliveries, the Jussey factory is well stocked.

“We’re OK, we have three months of stocks of wood, glue, nails and varnish,” said Garret.

– ‘Play our part’ –

Some of the factory’s workers are no strangers to previous surges in deaths.

“During the 2003 heatwave we increased production to 500 caskets a day,” said David Theurez, a 30-year veteran at the site.

The heatwave, which claimed nearly 15,000 lives in France, was in some ways more difficult for the factory as they had no warning and had to call workers back from vacation.

“But today, it’s a bit different, you have to protect yourself as well with masks and gloves,” said Theurez.

“It’s a collective crisis, we all have to make an effort and play our part,” he added.

The factory’s workers themselves haven’t gone unscathed: three have come down with COVID-19.

Fifteen others are at home, forced into isolation by existing serious health issues, or because they have to mind their children as school has been cancelled.

Like many other French companies, the factory has had difficulty obtaining protective gear for all of its employees.

It had a local seamstress make masks for employees and work stations are disinfected regularly.

The factory’s director thinks that the rapid adoption of social distancing measures and protective gear has helped them avoid more cases as eastern France has been hard hit with coronavirus infections.

“Fingers crossed,” said Garret.

Source:  AFP

Tens of millions of jobs are now at risk from the coronavirus pandemic, with entire industries being shut down to keep the virus from spreading. Governments across Europe are spending billions on wage subsidies in a desperate effort to save jobs and cushion the economic blow.

A spike in unemployment is a triple threat to a country’s economy: consumer spending and tax revenues drop, while social welfare costs skyrocket.

The International Labour Organization estimates that almost 25 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Governments across Europe are using public money to try to secure jobs through the crisis by paying or reimbursing companies that have seen their revenues dry up. Their goal: to keep employees on the payroll so they can resume working when businesses re-open.

Here are some of the plans to help individuals that have been announced so far.

France

As the number of cases of the virus began to rise, the French government extended its system of chômage partiel, or partial unemployment.

When a company is forced to reduce or suspend work, it can apply for state funding of 70 percent of an employee’s gross salary, to a maximum of €6,927 per month.

As of March 24, 730,000 workers were being paid under this scheme. The finance ministry has already set aside €8.5 billion in funding but that amount is expected to rise.

With schools and crèches (nurseries) closed, the French government is also giving paid leave to parents who cannot work from home and who are responsible for children younger than 16.

The annual winter embargo on evicting tenants from residential properties has also been extended to May 31.

Germany

Berlin has expanded its short-time allowance, or Kurzarbeitergeld, to include companies that cut working hours as a result of the coronavirus.

It pays at the same level as unemployment benefits: Up to 67 percent of net wages lost due to shorter hours, to a maximum of €6,700 per month.

Tenants who are unable to pay their rent will be protected from eviction until September 30, although back rent will be owed when the economic situation improves.

United Kingdom

The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme will see the UK government reimburse companies for 80 percent of gross salaries up to a maximum of £2,500 (€2,714) per month.

This can be backdated to March 1, with the system in place initially for three months.

Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said he was “placing no limit on the amount of funding available for the scheme”.

Ireland

A new temporary wage subsidy will allow affected companies to recoup up to 70 percent of salaries from the Irish government to maintain current employment levels, with a maximum of €410 per week (€1,777 net per month).

Special arrangements have been made for the childcare sector, which include the state paying all the wages of crèche workers as well as contributing to other running costs. The aim is for parents to be able to stop paying fees and still be guaranteed a place when the crèche reopens.

Italy

As part of the economic package adopted on March 16, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s government extended a series of “social shock absorbers”. 

They include paying up to 80 percent of an employee’s salary for a period of nine weeks to a maximum of €1,130 net per month.

Self-employed people have also been awarded a one-off payment of €600.

Spain

The existing provision for temporary layoffs, known as ERTE, has been expanded to cover businesses affected by the virus. Up to 70 percent of salaries will be paid, with a maximum of €1,412 per month.

The Spanish government has also ordered utility companies to maintain services to all “vulnerable” households, even if they are unable to pay their bills.

Trouble ahead

These temporary packages come at a steep cost to the taxpayer but, if successful, they will help economies recover more quickly when the outbreak recedes.

Economists are nonetheless warning of a deep recession to come. A key economic survey published by IHS Markit on Tuesday showed the largest collapse in eurozone business activity on record.

And despite the quick moves to shore up economies, some warn it may not be enough.

So far, “policymakers’ efforts to date have failed to brighten the darkening picture”, said IHS Markit chief business economist Chris Williamson, in a statement accompanying the survey results.

Bell, of BMO Global Asset Management, wrote in an economic update on Tuesday that government measures “will do no more than blunt the blow to economies and families”.

Source: France 24