The IMF announced Saturday member nations agreed to increase their contributions to the global lender and give sub-Saharan Africa a third seat on its executive board at its first meetings on the continent since 1973.

Boosting the International Monetary Fund’s quota resources and giving Africa a bigger voice within the institution were among the priorities of the week-long talks of the IMF and World Bank in Marrakech, Morocco.

Spanish Economy Minister Nadia Calvino, who chairs the IMF Financial Committee, said at a press conference that there was “agreement on a meaningful increase of quotas by the end of the year.”

The quotas, which are based on the size of a country’s economy, determine how much funding a nation should provide to the IMF, its voting power and the maximum amount of loans it can obtain.

IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and World Bank President Ajay Banga used this week’s meetings to urge members to step up funding so their institutions can better support nations hit by poverty and climate change.

The conflict between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas has raised concerns about its impact on already weak global economic growth in the wake of the Ukraine war, elevated inflation and high interest rates.

Georgieva said the agreement on quotas was “very heartwarming.”

The goal, she said, was “to make the fund strong financially in terms of our ability to step up should we be hit by yet another shock.”

Asked when the IMF will change its voting shares, Georgieva said: the “membership has agreed that this is going to be the next step and that there will be a clear pathway and plan to go there.”

Giving countries like China, which is now the world’s second biggest economy, a larger voting share has been a controversial issue.

China has a 6.08 percent share of votes compared to 6.14 percent for Japan, the third global economy.

“At some point, a revision of the IMF’s quota distribution will be inevitable,” French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in Marrakesh on Wednesday.

“But the emerging countries that will benefit from this — including China — will have to accept common rules of the game,” he said.

While voting shares were not changed, the IMF agreed to expand its executive board from 24 to 25 members to give Africa another seat.

Sub-Saharan Africa will now have three executive board members instead of two.

“I will finish with what warmed my heart the most: uniform support for a third African chair on our executive board,” Georgieva said.

“That is so important for meetings that take place on African soil,” she said.

“Despite all the difficulties I can only praise our members for finding this pathway to solidarity on which hundreds of millions of people depend.”

Source: AFP

South Asia is expected to grow by 5.8% this year—higher than any other developing country region in the world, but slower than its pre-pandemic pace and not fast enough to meet its development goals, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year regional outlook.

Released today, the latest South Asia Development Update, Toward Faster, Cleaner Growth forecasts growth to slow to 5.6% in 2024 and 2025, as post-pandemic rebounds fade and a combination of monetary tightening, fiscal consolidation, and reduced global demand weigh on economic activity.

Growth prospects are subject to downside risks, including due to fragile fiscal positions. Government debt in South Asian countries averaged 86% of GDP in 2022, increasing the risks of defaults, raising borrowing costs, and diverting credit away from the private sector. The region could also be affected by a further slowdown in China’s economic growth and natural disasters made more frequent and intense by climate change.

“While South Asia is making steady progress, most countries in the region are not growing fast enough to reach high-income thresholds within a generation,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “Countries need to urgently manage fiscal risks and focus on measures to accelerate growth, including by boosting private sector investment and seizing opportunities created by the global energy transition.”

In India, which accounts for the bulk of the region’s economy, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3% in FY23/24. Output in Maldives is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2023 and in Nepal is expected to rebound to 3.9% in FY23/24, thanks to the strong rebound in tourism in both countries. Several countries in the region are still suffering from the aftermaths of recent currency crises. In Bangladesh, growth will slow to 5.6% in FY23/24. In Pakistan, growth is forecast at only 1.7% in FY23/24, below the rate of population growth. Sri Lanka is showing signs of recovery after a severe recession and the economy is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2024, after contracting by 3.8% in 2023.

Constrained by fiscal challenges, governments have limited room to help their economies fully capitalize on the global energy transition. Though often seen as an additional burden for developing countries, for South Asia, the energy transition could present an opportunity for future growth and job creation—if it leads to more investments by firms, cuts air pollution, and reduces the reliance on fuel imports. Even with limited fiscal space, countries can encourage firms to adopt more energy-efficient technologies through market-based regulations, information campaigns, broader access to finance, and reliable power grids.

“South Asia’s energy intensity of output is about twice the global average and the region lags in the adoption of more advanced energy-efficient technologies,” said Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia. “Improvements in energy efficiency, in the context of a rapid global energy transition, are an opportunity for South Asia to make progress toward both environmental and economic goals.”

The energy transition will also have significant impacts on South Asia’s labor markets. Almost one-tenth of the region’s workers are employed in pollution-intensive jobs. These jobs are concentrated among lower-skilled and informal workers who are more vulnerable to labor market shifts. While the energy transition can help create more new jobs, it could also leave some workers stranded in declining industries. The report recommends a wide range of policies to protect such workers, including providing better access to high-quality education and training, finance, and markets; facilitating worker mobility; and strengthening social safety nets.

Culled from the World Bank

Wheat prices have risen sharply on global markets after Russia said it would treat ships heading for Ukrainian ports as potential military targets.

Moscow pulled out of a deal this week that had guaranteed safe passage for grain shipments through the Black Sea.

A White House spokesperson accused Russia of planning to blame Ukraine for attacks on civilian ships.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said he would return to the grain agreement immediately if his demands were met.

They include reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to a global payment system.

A Russian air strike on the Ukrainian port city of Mykolaiv wounded 18 people on Wednesday night, according to a local official.

The region’s governor Vitaliy Kim said nine of the injured, including five children, were taken to hospital for treatment.

Other air strikes were reported on the port of Odesa.

Elsewhere, a drone strike in Russian-controlled Crimea killed a teenage girl, a Russian-backed official said.

Following previous air strikes around Odesa this week, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of deliberately targeting grain export infrastructure and putting vulnerable countries at risk.

Kyiv urged other countries in the Black Sea region to intervene to assure the safe passage of cargo ships.

“From 00:00 Moscow time on 20 July 2023 [21:00 GMT Wednesday], all vessels sailing on the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo,” the Russian defence ministry said.

“Flag states of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kyiv regime,” it added.

Wheat prices on the European stock exchange soared by 8.2% on Wednesday from the previous day, to €253.75 (£219.78) per tonne, while corn prices were up 5.4%.

US wheat futures jumped 8.5% on Wednesday, their highest daily rise since just after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukrainian Agriculture Minister Mykola Solskyi said strikes had destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain and damaged considerable parts of grain export infrastructure.

Russia began targeting Ukraine’s ports in the early hours of Tuesday within hours of its withdrawal from the grain deal.

Source: BBC

Global growth has slowed sharply and the risk of financial stress in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is intensifying amid elevated global interest rates, according to the World Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report.

Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1% in 2022 to 2.1% in 2023. In EMDEs other than China, growth is set to slow to 2.9% this year from 4.1% last year. These forecasts reflect broad-based downgrades: growth projections for 70 percent of EMDEs and nearly all advanced economies have been downgraded.

“The surest way to reduce poverty and spread prosperity is through employment—and slower growth makes job creation a lot harder,” said World Bank Group President Ajay Banga. “It’s important to keep in mind that growth forecasts are not destiny. We have an opportunity to turn the tide but it will take us all working together.”

Most EMDEs have seen only limited harm from the recent banking stress in advanced economies so far, but they are now sailing in dangerous waters. With increasingly restrictive global credit conditions, one out of every four EMDEs has effectively lost access to international bond markets. The squeeze is especially acute for EMDEs with underlying vulnerabilities such as low creditworthiness. Growth projections for these economies for 2023 are less than half those from a year ago, making them highly vulnerable to additional shocks.

“The world economy is in a precarious position,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President. “Outside of East and South Asia, it is a long way from the dynamism needed to eliminate poverty, counter climate change, and replenish human capital. In 2023, trade will grow at less than a third of its pace in the years before the pandemic. In emerging markets and developing economies, debt pressures are growing due to higher interest rates. Fiscal weaknesses have already tipped many low-income countries into debt distress. Meanwhile, the financing needs to achieve the sustainable development goals are far greater than even the most optimistic projections of private investment.”

The latest forecasts indicate that the overlapping shocks of the pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the sharp slowdown amid tight global financial conditions have dealt an enduring setback to development in EMDEs, one that will persist for the foreseeable future. By the end of 2024, economic activity in these economies is expected be about 5% below levels projected on the eve of the pandemic. In low-income countries—especially the poorest—the damage is stark: in more than one-third of these countries, per capita incomes in 2024 will still be below 2019 levels. This feeble pace of income growth will entrench extreme poverty in many low-income countries.

“Many developing economies are struggling to cope with weak growth, persistently high inflation, and record debt levels. Yet new hazards—such as the possibility of more widespread spillovers from renewed financial stress in advanced economies—could make matters even worse for them,” said Ayhan Kose, Deputy Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. “Policy makers in these economies should act promptly to prevent financial contagion and reduce near-term domestic vulnerabilities.”

In advanced economies, growth is set to decelerate from 2.6% in 2022 to 0.7% this year and remain weak in 2024, the report says. After growing 1.1% in 2023, the U.S. economy is set to decelerate to 0.8% in 2024, mainly because of the lingering impact of the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year and a half. In the euro area, growth is forecast to slow to 0.4% in 2023 from 3.5% in 2022, due to the lagged effect of monetary policy tightening and energy-price increases.

The report also offers an analysis of how increases in U.S. interest rates are affecting EMDEs. Most of the rise in two-year Treasury yields over the past year and a half has been driven by investor expectations of hawkish U.S. monetary policy to control inflation. According to the report, this particular type of interest rate increases is associated with adverse financial effects in EMDEs, including a higher probability of financial crisis. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in countries with greater economic vulnerabilities. In particular, frontier markets—those with less developed financial markets and more limited access to international capital—tend to see outsized increases in borrowing costs; for instance, sovereign risk spreads in frontier markets tend to rise by more than three times as much as those in other EMDEs.

In addition, the report provides a comprehensive assessment of the fiscal policy challenges confronting low-income economies. These countries are in dire straits. Rising interest rates have compounded the deterioration in their fiscal positions over the past decade. Public debt now averages about 70% of GDP. Interest payments are eating up a rising share of limited government revenues. 14 low-income countries are already in, or at high risk of, debt distress. Spending pressures have risen in these economies. Adverse shocks such as extreme climate events and conflict are more likely to tip households into distress in low-income countries than anywhere else because of limited social safety nets. On average, these countries spend just 3% of GDP on their most vulnerable citizens—well below the 26% average for developing economies.

A European Union ban on seafood from Cameroon is prompting local fleets to look toward China for investment, according to Edwin Ngwafor, who is the director of Timezone Marine Ventures, a Yaoundé-based firm with a permit for 40 vessels.

Ngwafor, who is also the deputy managing partner at a Cameroonian law firm, wants to attract a Chinese partner who can bring money and expertise to a joint venture project that would aim to sell species including barracuda, sole, tuna, and shrimp to local markets and abroad in Asia.

This comes as the E.U. in January 2023 designated Cameroon a “noncooperating country,” barring its fishery products from entering European markets because the country continues to register fishing vessels operating outside its waters without sufficiently monitoring their activities.

SeafoodSource spoke with Ngwafor about how Cameroonian fishing efforts aim to respond and adapt to the red card ban and what he personally aims to accomplish with his own fishing ventures.

SeafoodSource: Why do you seek new access to Asia? Would it not be better to fix the problems highlighted by the E.U. and retain access to that valuable market?

Ngwafor: The economic relationship between China and Africa is not a secret, and this is true across all sectors. China has played active roles in Africa in infrastructure projects, trade and commerce, telecommunications, defense, and security. Many fishing companies in Cameroon have focused on partnerships with China, especially following the unfortunate sanction meted out recently against Cameroon by the E.U.

Following the E.U. ban, local fishing companies in Cameroon have found the necessity to adapt and survive irrespective. They provide employment and sources of income to hundreds of thousands of people, and this is crucial for the local economy. Local companies believe the fostering and advancement of their partnerships with Asia in general, and China in particular, provide a viable commercial alternative which will, in turn, enable the realization of their business objectives.

This by no means implies that the Cameroonian government is resting on its laurels in the process to restore its credibility and relationship with the E.U. To address the problem, the [Cameroon] Ministry of Livestock, Fisheries and Animal Industries is collaborating with other organizations to launch a project entitled “Stop IUU [illegal, unregulated, unreported] fishing in Cameroon.”

The project is implemented in collaboration with other institutions, such as Global Fishing Watch and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, along with Cameroon’s Ministry of Transport and the National Navy. There have also been several consultation meetings for the revision of the Cameroonian law on the governance of fishing and aquaculture and an inventory of the Cameroonian fishing fleet.

SeafoodSource: What is the opportunity for Chinese companies for fishing in Cameroon?

Ngwafor: There are wide-ranging opportunities in the sector for international fishing companies, including Chinese companies, especially given the fact that Cameroon continues to be unable to meet the nutritional needs in fishery products of the population, which are estimated at nearly 500,000 tons annually. Also, Cameroon is situated in a unique geographical location, which provides a varied diversity in fishery products and is favorable to quick export through the Douala Seaport, the main seaport in the CEMAC [Economic Community of Central African States] subregion.

Cameroon has a global reputation for the quality of its shrimp, which is highly prized in international markets. In addition to all these, there are several investment opportunities in niche areas, such as setting up industrial units for shrimp and fish, distribution chains, manufacturing fishing equipment, processing, and packaging units for fisheries products, as well as assembly plants for fishing vessels.

SeafoodSource: Are you worried about various controversies in Ghana and Senegal featuring Chinese fleets overfishing and illegally fishing?

Ngwafor: The court cases in Ghana are an example such as the cases in the Spanish courts in Europe. These cases are specific in their own facts. Our company is not discouraged by the events in Ghana, as we believe these are unique and not wholly reflective of the general ethos of Chinese fishing companies.

There are thousands of Chinese companies engaged in fisheries partnerships all over the world, and if a fraction of these are naughty, it must not taint the image of those who are ethically sound. Our company is open to do business with responsible partners, including Chinese companies, and commits to adhere to local and international requirements against IUU fishing as we seek to establish a strong and respected global reputation.

SeafoodSource: Don’t you think it would be far more valuable for you to catch and market the fish as a local firm rather than selling or renting licenses to a foreign investor?

Ngwafor: It will be …

Culled from SeafoodSource

The World Bank Group has begun work to assess the business and investment climate in up to 180 economies under its flagship Business Ready project—a key instrument of its new strategy to facilitate private investment, generate employment, and improve productivity to help countries accelerate development in inclusive and sustainable ways.

Business Ready improves upon and replaces the World Bank Group’s earlier Doing Business project. It reflects a more balanced and transparent approach toward evaluating a country’s business and investment climate—one that has been shaped by recommendations from experts from within and outside the World Bank Group, including governments, the private sector, and civil society organizations. The first annual Business Ready report, covering 54 economies, will be published in the Spring of 2024.

Today, the World Bank Group published two key documents: the Business Ready Manual and Guide, specifying the detailed protocols and safeguards it has put in place to ensure the integrity of the assessments; and the Business Ready Methodology Handbook, detailing the project’s indicators and scoring methodology. Data collection on the business environment of the initial 54 economies is being done through extensive consultations with regulatory experts and nationally representative World Bank Enterprise Surveys, collected by competitively selected survey companies.

“The World Bank Group is bringing back a fuller and sharper measure of the investment climate of countries—something that is badly needed in a global economy in the midst of a generalized slowdown,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Governments that do more to make their economies business-ready will do better in reviving private investment, creating jobs, and quickening the transition to cleaner energy.”

The World Bank Group has long been a leader in spurring business-regulatory reforms across the world. Its assessments of the business-enabling environment worldwide helped spur nearly 4,000 regulatory reforms in developing and developed economies over the past two decades. They also significantly advanced academic research in this area, resulting in 4,000 peer-reviewed research papers and at least 10,000 working papers. Countries, moreover, often use these assessments to shape their development strategies.

“The ‘Business Ready’ project represents a new approach to assessing the business and investment climates,” said Norman Loayza, Director of the World Bank’s Indicators Group, which leads the project. “The ‘Business Ready’ approach aims to establish a better balance between the ease of conducting a business and the broader implications for society as a whole. It gives a more positive role for governments, advocating for better public services for businesses. In addition to experts’ assessments, it includes direct information from entrepreneurs and managers on their experience navigating the economy’s business environment.”

Business Ready focuses on 10 topics covering the lifecycle of a firm in the course of starting, operating, or closing or reorganizing its activities: Business Entry, Business Location, Utility Services, Labor, Financial Services, International Trade, Taxation, Dispute Resolution, Market Competition, and Business Insolvency. Over the next three years, the project will grow to cover about 180 economies worldwide annually, starting with 54 economies in 2023-24, 120 economies in 2024-25, and reaching 180 economies in 2025-26.

The project’s objective is reflected in its name—to make each country’s economic environment ready for a dynamic private sector. The name highlights the fact that economies exist in different stages of readiness, and that governments play a key role in creating a business environment that is conducive for sustainable development.

Transparency will be a key feature of Business Ready’s safeguards for data integrity. All information collected by the project—raw granular data, scores, as well as the calculations used to obtain the scores—will be made publicly available on the project website. Moreover, all results presented in the reports will be replicable using straightforward toolkits available on the website.

Populations across the globe are aging at an unprecedented pace, making many countries increasingly reliant on migration to realize their long-term growth potential, according to a new report from the World Bank.

The World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies, identifies this trend as a unique opportunity to make migration work better for economies and people. Wealthy countries as well as a growing number of middle-income countries—traditionally among the main sources of migrants—face diminishing populations, intensifying the global competition for workers and talent. Meanwhile, most low-income countries are expected to see rapid population growth, putting them under pressure to create more jobs for young people.

“Migration can be a powerful force for prosperity and development,” said World Bank Senior Managing Director Axel van Trotsenburg. “When it is managed properly, it provides benefits for all people — in origin and destination societies.”

In the coming decades, the share of working-age adults will drop sharply in many countries. Spain, with a population of 47 million, is projected to shrink by more than one third by 2100, with those above age 65 increasing from 20% to 39% of the population. Countries like Mexico, Thailand, Tunisia and Türkiye may soon need more foreign workers because their population is no longer growing.

Beyond this demographic shift, the forces driving migration are also changing, making cross-border movements more diverse and complex. Today, destination and origin countries span all income levels, with many countries such as Mexico, Nigeria, and the U.K. both sending and receiving migrants. The number of refugees nearly tripled over the last decade. Climate change threatens to fuel more migration. So far, most climate-driven movements were within countries, but about 40% of the world’s population—3.5 billion people—lives in places highly exposed to climate impacts.

Current approaches not only fail to maximize the potential development gains of migration, they also cause great suffering for people moving in distress. About 2.5% of the world’s population—184 million people, including 37 million refugees—now live outside their country of nationality. The largest share—43%—lives in developing countries.

The report underscores the urgency of managing migration better. The goal of policymakers should be to strengthen the match of migrants’ skills with the demand in destination societies, while protecting refugees and reducing the need for distressed movements. The report provides a framework for policymakers on how to do this.

“This World Development Report proposes a simple but powerful framework to aid the making of migration and refugee policy,” said Indermit Gill, Chief Economist of the World Bank Group and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “It tells us when such policies can be made unilaterally by destination countries, when they are better made plurilaterally by destination, transit and origin countries, and when they must be considered a multilateral responsibility.”

Origin countries should make labor migration an explicit part of their development strategy. They should lower remittance costs, facilitate knowledge transfers from their diaspora, build skills that are in high demand globally so that citizens can get better jobs if they migrate, mitigate the adverse effects of “brain drain,” protect their nationals while abroad, and support them upon return.

Destination countries should encourage migration where the skills migrants bring are in high demand, facilitate their inclusion, and address social impacts that raise concerns among their citizens. They should let refugees move, get jobs, and access national services wherever they are available.

International cooperation is essential to make migration a strong force for development. Bilateral cooperation can strengthen the match of migrants’ skills with the needs of destination societies. Multilateral efforts are needed to share the costs of refugee-hosting and to address distressed migration. Voices that are underrepresented in the migration debate must be heard: this includes developing countries, the private sector and other stakeholders, and migrants and refugees themselves.

The World Bank today released its 2023 Logistics Performance Index report, a measure of countries’ ability to move goods across borders with speed and reliability.

The seventh edition of Connecting to Compete, the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) report comes after three years of unprecedented supply chain disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic, when delivery times soared. The LPI, which covers 139 countries, measures the ease of establishing reliable supply chain connections and the structural factors that make it possible, such as the quality of logistics services, trade- and transport-related infrastructure, and border controls.

“Logistics are the lifeblood of international trade, and trade in turn is a powerful force for economic growth and poverty reduction,” said Mona Haddad, Global Director for Trade, Investment, and Competitiveness at the World Bank. “The Logistics Performance Index helps developing countries identify where improvements can be made to boost competitiveness.”

On average across all potential trade routes, 44 days elapse from the time a container enters the port of the exporting country until it leaves the destination port, with a standard deviation of 10.5 days. That span represents 60 percent of the time it takes to trade goods internationally.

According to LPI 2023, end-to-end supply chain digitalization, especially in emerging economies, is allowing countries to shorten port delays by up to 70% compared to those in developed countries. Moreover, demand for green logistics is rising, with 75 percent of shippers looking for environmentally friendly options when exporting to high income countries.

“While most time is spent in shipping, the biggest delays occur at seaports, airports, and multimodal facilities. Policies targeting these facilities can help improve reliability,” said Christina Wiederer, Senior Economist with the World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practice and the report’s co-author.

Such policies include improving clearance processes and investing in infrastructure, adopting digital technologies, and incentivizing environmentally sustainable logistics by shifting to less carbon-intensive freight modes and more energy-efficient warehousing.

Economic activity in the Europe and Central Asia region is likely to remain subdued this year due to the ongoing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, persistent high inflation and tighter financial conditions, says the World Bank’s Economic Update for the region, released today.

Regional output is now expected to grow by 1.4% in 2023, substantially better than the previously anticipated 0.1%. The positive, though deeply depressed, economic activity in 2023 reflects a softer contraction of Russia’s economy and an improvement in Ukraine’s outlook. Regional growth is expected to increase to an average 2.7% over 2024-25 as inflation eases, domestic demand recovers, and the external environment improves.

A sharp rise in consumer prices, particularly for food and energy, resulted in median annual inflation spiking to 15.9% by late 2022 in the emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) of Europe and Central Asia, the highest in more than 20 years, and the highest among all developing regions of the world. Inflation averaged less than 4% in Europe and Central Asia EMDEs before it began rising in 2021.

The outlook remains highly uncertain. Growth in 2023 may be weaker if the war caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalates further, food and energy prices continue to increase, interest rate hikes accelerate globally or in the region, or there is a sudden reversal of capital flows to the region. There could be spillovers to growth from the current banking developments in some advanced economies.

Ukraine’s economy is projected to grow by 0.5% this year, following a staggering contraction of 29.2% in 2022, the year of Russia’s invasion of the country. While the economic toll suffered by Ukraine as a result of the invasion is enormous, the reopening of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and resumption of grain trade, as well as substantial donor support, are helping support economic activity this year. According to recent World Bank estimates, the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine has now grown to $411 billion, which is more than 2 times the size of Ukraine’s pre-war economy in 2021.

Türkiye experienced two devastating earthquakes on February 6, 2023, which have resulted in direct damages of about $34.2 billion, or 4% percent of the country’s 2021 GDP, according to World Bank estimates. Actual costs to meet the full range of recovery and reconstruction needs could be double the direct damages. Incorporating the impact of the recent earthquakes, growth is projected at 3.2% in 2023, rising to an average of 4.2% over 2024-25, underpinned by government support to households and investment amid ongoing reconstruction efforts.

Against the background of slow growth and high inflation, the report includes a special focus chapter on the cost-of-living crisis, which examines the impact of high inflation on the standards of living of people in the region.

“Inflation erodes the real incomes of people – and high inflation affects the poorest much more than the richest segments of the population,” said Ivailo Izvorski, World Bank Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia region. “To better protect vulnerable groups and promote economic growth, policies should take into account the varying impacts of inflation across different income levels and use more precise indicators to measure the actual cost of high prices on the poorest.”

Governments across the region responded to the cost-of-living crisis with social assistance and subsidies, the latter involving moratoriums on energy price increases, reduced public transport fees, and caps on electricity and natural gas prices for households and businesses.

The report’s analysis, however, reveals the unequal burden of the cost-of-living crisis. It finds that inflation was 2 percentage points higher for the poorest 10% of the population compared to the wealthiest 10%. This difference exceeded 5 percentage points in some countries in the region, including Moldova, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.

Policies that do not account for the different inflation rates faced by households are likely to provide inadequate support to vulnerable groups and may end up being both inefficient and less effective, the report notes. It recommends going beyond the standard consumer price index (CPI) to measure inflation in order to capture more precisely the actual cost of living of the poorest. This is essential for designing better growth and poverty alleviation policies.