In defining independence strategies around perfect circumstances, war advocates in the NOSO have often been so blinded by their conception of a desirable future as to overlook current shifts in geopolitical dynamics. Internally, Cameroon was able to maintain its military dominance because President Biya was able to use the levers of the state to seize many opportunities on the diplomatic scene. However, his presidency is coming to an end, and with the tectonic shift in world politics resulting from the Ukrainian war, there is an urgent need to debate what kind of geostrategic outcome President Biya’s departure will bring to Cameroon.

As a geostrategist, these questions preoccupy my mind every day. Despite the widespread perception of theories of change due to an inevitable transition, Cameroonians have not yet begun to look at geopolitics or geostrategy in the right light. I chose this sensational title to get your full attention so that we can focus on the boring but critical realities of geopolitics that will affect current and future generations of our countrymen.

Why is Macron in Cameroon?

Macron is in Cameroon because of Ambazonia. He was invited to Cameroon by President Paul Biya, but his primary interest is Ambazonia. Let me explain. Ambazonia was not the main topic in public, but all the analyzes I have done point to Ambazonia.

The reason is simple. The territory referred to as Ambazonia is home to crude oil, which has remained a cornerstone of the French economy since World War II. Ambazonian oil also accounts for nearly 50% of Cameroon’s import revenue each year. African crude oil remains a strategic asset for France and a key pillar in helping France maintain its standard of living over the past 50 years. We Africans have subsidized Europe with cheap exports, especially crude oil. Europe’s reliance on crude oil and gas, however, has only been moderated over the past two decades by Europe’s access to cheap Russian reserves. If Russian supply lines are closed, as Putin is preparing to do, France, like many other European nations, will have no choice but to rely again on African reserves, especially those of the Gulf of Guinea.

Once you realize that Europe needs oil and gas to power its cars and heat its homes in the winter, you have to accept that the last thing a Western leader wants is for people to freeze to death in the winter. . It’s a real suicide.

Oil diplomacy will intensify in the coming months. We are currently preparing the visit of the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, to President Biya, just after that of President Macron.

TotalFinaElf alias TotalEnergies is the world’s 5th largest oil producer with more than 180 billion dollars in revenue for the year 2021, but France does not produce a drop of oil. Central African countries such as Cameroon are the suppliers. In exchange, France offered its support to regimes like Paul Biya, the Bongos in Gabon, the Debys in Chad and Dennis Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazza. For decades, this arrangement served France but disrupted the economic structures of these countries. Resource-dependent economies have created oligarchs in Central Africa. Today, thanks to advances in internet communication, the tide is turning. There is growing sentiment against what some Africans see as a neo-colonial framework that creates a small superclass at the expense of millions who live in abject poverty.

Many Cameroonians do not have a sufficient vision of the future. The resulting naivety creates an unreasonable expectation that Macron will defend our interests at his expense. Some even think that he should give up the CFA franc. Others demand that he unblock France’s colonial machine. These results remain improbable without sustained pressure and the levers to make them a reality. Macron may be a liberal democrat, but any world leader is by default a fiscal conservative when it comes to global trade. Every Western leader has taken an oath to defend the interests of his country, militarily and economically. Expecting Macron to drop the CFA or advocate for true liberalization of the Cameroonian economy in relation to world trade is no different from expecting him to come out for independence. Ambazonia. If he has to secure African oil and gas to keep his citizens warm in the winter or to run their cars and machines, he will, no matter what we think. It’s realpolitik.

However, as a serious student of geopolitics, I will also tell you that change is constant. Alliances are not permanent. The future could be very different. As long as oil demand remains strong, global powers will attempt to gain access to Ambazonia oil, and Cameroon’s sovereignty or French access will always be contested.

These external forces are what we often overlook in our political debates. I will therefore take the risk of going where many Cameroonian academics tend to abstain when talking about our oil and gas sector.

The oil industry in Cameroon is very important but remains opaque. According to the World Bank, 47% of all the money Cameroon makes from its exports comes from crude oil, and that crude oil is in Ambazonia. However, we all remember that the World Bank also concluded in January 2011 that only about 46% of the total oil revenues accruing to the government between 1977 and 2006 could be transferred to the budget. Their conclusion that the remaining 54% is not properly accounted for remains the same. If we consider the total amount of oil produced by Cameroon, the figures vary between 70,000 and 100,000 barrels per day. With a barrel of oil at $100 or 64,000 CFA today, this means that Cameroon earns between 6,400,000,000 and 10,000,000,000 CFA per day with oil alone. Without going into accounting details, this means for ordinary mortals that more than 3 billion CFA francs can be diverted per day from the oil account. This fluctuation in the reports also indicates accounting irregularities. What is also problematic is that the Cameroonian government was reporting 185,000 barrels per day in 1984 and no one has ever explained why there was a sudden drop of over 100,000 barrels in the reports after 1984. If these missing 100,000 barrels in declared exports are also a reality, then around 10 billion CFA francs are being siphoned off daily. Cameroonians will therefore want to know who is sucking up this money and where it is going. There are now more tools available for credible investigation by Cameroonian academics and financial experts. The oil debate is one we will have at another time, but these numbers are worth noting to understand the complexity we will have to tackle along the way and the questions that will arise.

TotalFinaElf alias TotalEnergies is the world’s 5th largest oil producer with more than 180 billion dollars in revenue for 2021 alone, but France does not produce a drop of oil. Central African countries such as Cameroon are the suppliers. In exchange, France offered its support to regimes like Paul Biya, the Bongos in Gabon, the Debys in Chad and Dennis Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazza. For decades, this arrangement served France but disrupted the economic structures of these countries. Resource-dependent economies have created oligarchs in Central Africa. Today, thanks to advances in internet communication, the tide is turning. There is growing sentiment against what many see as a neo-colonial framework that creates a small superclass at the expense of millions who live in abject poverty.

Many Cameroonians do not have a sufficient vision of the future. The resulting naivety creates an unreasonable expectation that Macron will defend our interests at his expense. Some even think that he should give up the CFA franc. Others demand that he unblock France’s colonial machine. These results remain improbable without sustained pressure and the levers to make them a reality. Macron may be a liberal democrat, but any world leader is by default a fiscal conservative when it comes to global trade. Every Western leader has taken an oath to defend the interests of his country, militarily and economically. Expecting Macron to drop the CFA or advocate for true liberalization of the Cameroonian economy in relation to world trade is no different from expecting him to come out for independence. Ambazonia. If he has to secure African oil and gas to keep his citizens warm in the winter or to run their cars and machines, he will, no matter what we think. It’s realpolitik.

However, as a serious student of geopolitics, I will also tell you that change is constant. Alliances are not permanent. The future could be very different. As long as demand for oil remains strong, global powers will attempt to gain access to Ambazonia oil, and Cameroon’s sovereignty or French access will always be contested.

These external forces are what we often overlook in our political debates. I will therefore take the risk of going where many Cameroonian academics tend to abstain when talking about our oil and gas sector.

Today, Cameroon is a serious victim of the Dutch disease – the curse that afflicts many oil-producing nations. Elf Serepca discovered oil in 1947 off the coast of Southern Cameroons, long before independence. In 1960, Cameroonians, and even President Ahidjo, did not even know that we had oil. After independence, President Ahidjo was made aware of oil, which prompted him to call for the replacement of the Federal Republic by a unitary state. Without a unitary state, he had no basis for a legal claim. When he finally achieved the unitary state through the 1972 referendum, he then proceeded with the land reform of 1974, which made the President of Cameroon the owner of all untitled land throughout the National territory. From 1974 to 1977, President Ahidjo discreetly set up the SNH. The majority of the Cameroonian people only knew that we had oil after the establishment of SONARA. It was not possible to conceal a refinery.

Since 1977, all oil revenues have been controlled exclusively by the Presidency of the Republic. SNH is not an entity accessible to the public. With total control of oil revenues estimated at well over $100 billion since 1977, President Biya has been able to maintain control. As things stand, any president of Cameroon with access to the SNH account can pay the army even if Cameroonians refuse to pay taxes or shut down the economy. This leverage will not be available when Cameroonians start looking at the oil sector.

France benefited from this arrangement, but not as much as many believe today. The situation has changed over the past two decades. Prior to 2002, the French government was a major shareholder in TotalFinaElf, aka TotalEnergies, but had to cede its stake to the European Commission following a ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Communities which condemned the government’s excessive desire Frenchto control the business. As early as 2011, Total Energies began selling or deploying its key assets and operations from Cameroon to Côte d’Ivoire. Since 2009, most oil interests have been held by the Russians, Chinese and British. Companies like New Age Energy, Lukoil and Petrochina have won major concessions. Other Russian companies like Gazprom, Tatneft and Rosneftfaz continue to try to enter the market. It is these companies/competitors that Macron is interested in. His main interest is to obtain more latitude from President Biya. Western powers know that Putin makes money in Cameroon through Lukoil. If Europe is at war with Putin, granting concessions to Lukoil or any other Russian company can be interpreted as an act of hostility towards the West. The French journalist’s question asking President Biya about his position on the war in Ukraine highlights the deep concerns of Western capitals.

You may be wondering why it is important to know this and what is the connection to Ambazonia.

Today, Macron’s official position is that President Biya is an essential ally who will be able to guard and secure the oil assets from Ambas Bay to Bakassi. If President Biya is open to a long-term succession plan, France will probably prefer continuity to change. France will also prefer to support the decentralization programme. Macron will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that the interests of the French people are served. And the best way is to preserve and maintain the status quo.

But this dynamic is also subject to fundamental change if the NOSO war continues.

There is also growing concern in the West about President Biya’s declining mental and physical acuity. Many people have concluded that President Biya has set his sights on the Russians and the Chinese. The signing of the cooperation agreements with Russia is a diplomatic mistake that cemented this view. President Macron has just left Cameroon and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is about to arrive. In recent months, many Western capitals have begun to wonder whether working with Ambazonians will not be a more effective long-term approach to securing the key resources the West needs. If this continues, what if Ambazonians start exploring how to transfer Ambazonian oil interests to the French and Americans? What if Ambazonians come to their senses, put aside anti-French sentiment (which is growing exponentially among French speakers) and give Macron the political and economic dividends he desperately needs? What if Ambazonians choose to sell their oil to France, the United States, or both if the price is right? Can Cameroon survive if the Biya regime is perceived as hostile to the West in the midst of an existential war?

Geopolitics is about to get very complicated, as Putin redoubles his efforts. Ambazonia is in the eye of the storm. The geopolitical and economic importance of the Gulf of Guinea is about to increase. As Europe enters winter and Russian supply lines are closed, this is a time when Cameroon must rethink its strategic position. If the Ambazonians step up their diplomacy and offer assurances to the oil companies while Cameroon rests on its laurels because it killed the Marshal of Lebialem, there is a real risk that we will lose the war.

In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends. When we know that France has backed Biafra, we cannot exclude the likelihood that Macron and future French presidents will be Ambazonia’s key strategic partner in a few years, while French-speaking Cameroon disintegrates in the ethnic wars to come. if thePresident Biya has no viable succession plan. Even if President Biya is replaced by Franck Emmanuel Biya, that will not be enough to stop the looming catastrophe.

We can no longer continue to ignore it when it is the determining factor in the trajectory of our domestic and foreign policy. Cameroonians will have to look into the oil sector because it is at the heart of our destiny in geopolitics. We need to start thinking. If we fail to get around the table with solutions, we will all be on the menu after President Biya leaves.

If Ambazonia had no oil, would Cameroon be at war with our English-speaking brothers? If Ambazonia had no oil, would Macron be in Cameroon?

By Pr. Eric Mathias Owona Nguini

Vice-Rector in charge of Research of the University of Yaoundé I

Cameroonian political scientist

The visit of a president to Cameroon has never aroused as much interest as that of the 45-year-old French President, Emmanuel Macron. Many are wondering why the ruling party is so excited about the visit. The reasons are simple and clear.

When you have failed all your exams, whatever comes your way becomes a trophy. Macron’s visit is already being projected as a success as if he was competing with any other president. Why should a foreign president’s visit be celebrated as a success in Cameroon? France has always been the master and Cameroon has always been the plantation while Cameroonians are the plantation workers. On the surface, the visit is a success, but there is more to it than meets the eyes. Failure sometimes makes people to celebrate things which do not need celebrations. Cameroon has clearly and sadly come to such an unfortunate point in its history.  

If Cameroonians must understand the facts surrounding the disaster that is unfolding in their country, they must scratch beyond the surface. The message being projected is that Macron is with the country’s president who is very ill and almost dead. Mr. Biya has been receiving energy boosters for months just to prepare for this visit, but things are fast falling apart. The muscles are all gone and any medication he has taken over the last two months has not lived up to its billing. Age is defying science and the dream of portraying Mr. Biya as a strong and healthy person is fast turning into a nightmare.

Biya is sick! He is a colony of diseases. His mind is failing him and the fear of an embarrassment among the sycophants surrounding him is palpable. If Biya was healthy, he would have been at the airport to receive the young French President who will be telling Mr. Biya that it is time for him to walk away from power, especially as Mr. Biya has been struck by the deadly Alzheimer’s disease. 

Biya is a shadow if his former self. All the drama which will be unfolding around him today will not be able to hide the massive elephant in the room. Biya is shuffling himself to the nearest cemetery in Cameroon and this is hurting the looters who have been propping the corruption and incompetence engineered by Mr. Biya.  

Mr. Biya cannot walk. He has lost control of himself. He is at the mercy of the kleptocrats who are putting up a façade of happiness and satisfaction with the old man’s dismal performance.  Mr. Biya’s right leg, which has been a burden to him for decades, has gotten worse. If he must rid himself of the excruciating pain generated by the leg, then he must accept an amputation. 

His bowel system and urinary track are all failing, and this only points to the fact that all humans are mortal. He will be receiving Macron today at the Unity Palace, but everything has been choreographed to ensure that he does not fall during the picture-taking phase of the visit. 

This may be the last time Macron will be having a tete-a-tete with the dying Biya whose mind has taken French leave of him. The end is near and there is nothing anybody can do. Biya clearly belongs to the past. He has inflicted a lot of pain on Cameroonians and his demise will be a welcome relief to a nation which should have been the envy of the continent. 

However, though Biya’s fate is known, that of the country’s economy remains an equation that might not be solved by the French alone. Cameroon is in the abyss of a financial crisis. If left unattended, the country might spiral into chaos and this is a major concern to the French who have already lost Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea Conakry, and the Central African Republic. The French empire in Africa has been caught up in a downward spiral and if Cameroon flips, then the French will be totally out of the continent. 

Cameroon’s economy is on life support and the country just like its dying president needs a lot of drips. Years of mismanagement and incompetence have eroded the country’s financial base. Civil servants and the military are already facing the likelihood of not receiving a monthly salary as the economy continues its onward march to a man-made catastrophe. 

Politically, Cameroon is a ticking time bomb and if care is not taken, it could go off at any time. The country’s English-speaking minority is gradually walking away and if it succeeds, this will rob the French of massive oil deposits and other minerals. In the north, things are not looking good. Boko Haram has successfully chased the country’s military from this vast region. Boko Haram has killed thousands of soldiers over the last five years.

But it is not Boko Haram which is the main threat right now. Northerners have woven an alliance which spells danger to the country if Mr. Biya’s succession is not well-prepared. The north just like the English-speaking minority is laying claim to power and if this is not properly handled, the world will soon be watching a world-class implosion. 

A few low-class ill-behaved Betis have been trying to promote Franck Biya as the country’s next president, but they seem to be oblivious of many things. Cameroon is not Chad, and it will never be Gabon. Cameroonians are politically conscious and will protest vehemently if the French seek to manipulate things. The country’s English-speaking regions are currently ungovernable and in the event of any political misstep on the part of the French, these two regions will serve as massive highways for the importation of sophisticated weapons into the country. 

The French will be doing themselves a world of good by ignoring the noise that Fame Ndongo and other sycophants are making about Franck Biya. The idea of a son succeeding a father will never fly in Cameroon. Cameroonians are already used to blood and picking up weapons to chase away those who have ruined the country will not be any tough challenge. There is no room for mistakes in Cameroon.  

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai  

French President, Emmanuel Macron, is currently in Cameroon on an official visit which will determine many things in the country. He was received at the airport by the country’s Prime Minister, Joseph Dion Ngute, who was representing the country’s old and ailing president, Paul Biya. This event is very likely to be Mr. Ngute’s last official event as a cabinet reshuffle will follow once Mr. Macron leaves the country. Unity Palace insiders have hinted Cameroon Concord News that the Southwest native will be replaced by another South-westerner in the next cabinet. 

Mr. Ngute is no longer in the good books of the Biya hawks as he has failed to disconnect the Southwest from the Northwest as many of them had expected. The government is now focusing on a South-westerner who has leverage on separatists, especially those in the United States.

The government is looking at a prime minister who can easily convince Sisiku Julius Ayuk Tabe to flip sides and embrace federalism which is what the French are proposing.  Two South-westerners have already been identified and one has been talking to some separatists, something the government believes can deliver good results.

 It is also believed that the Candidate working on the continent has a good relationship with Sisiku Julius Ayuk Tabe and is connected to people like Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor and Dr. Fontem Neba.  

During the French President’s visit, messieurs Biya and Macron will discuss a wide range of issues confronting the country, including corporation ties between Cameroon and France as well as succession planning.

The French are already scared of the future as the Biya era has caused a lot of pain and suffering in Cameroon. Most Cameroonians hold that France is responsible for most of the problems which have plagued the country over the last 40 years.

 Mr. Biya’s incompetence has transformed him into a polarizing figure. He has ruled the country for 40 years and his strategy has been to divide Cameroonians so that he can stay in power forever. And this is a real threat to French interest in the country.

Today, the country is more divided than it has ever been. The country’s English-speaking minority is determined to walk away from the lopsided union with the Francophone majority which has caused English-speaking Cameroonians more pain. 

The Country’s English-speaking minority has taken up arms and the message is clear. Southern Cameroonians want to disconnect from France and its French-speaking population in Cameroon. 

The French are not very happy about this unfortunate situation, and they are surprised that for more than five years, the Cameroon military, which has received massive support from the French government, has not been able to roll back the rebellion. This is indeed bad news for the French which have been benefiting from the misrule in Cameroon. 

France is already losing out on some major contracts in Cameroon and this is not good news to Macron who is very unpopular at home. Cameroon’s only oil refinery which went up in smoke some three years ago is being revamped by Russians. The French thought they would be handed the contract, but the bidding process did not favour them.

But things are only getting worse for the French in Cameroon. Northerners are also prepared to take up arms and they have made their intention known. They are just waiting for the day Biya gets recalled by the Lord. Cameroon is falling apart, and the French are worried. The seeds of destruction they had sown many years ago are today bearing fruits and they are among the victims of the ticking time bomb they had planted in Cameroon. They stand to lose if chaos ensues after Mr. Biya’s death. 

Some ill-intentioned Cameroonians are promoting the idea that Franck Biya should be the country’s next president, but this is not going down well with many French politicians who hold that getting Franck Biya into the Unity Palace might only cause the country to implode.

 If Anglophones are on their way out and Northerners have already hoisted their colors, then Cameroon is just a ticking time bomb that might go off anytime soon if Mr. Paul Biya’s succession is not well planned. 

Northerners hold that they also deserve to rule the country after 40 years of marginalization. Anglophones, for their part, hold that after 60 years of marginalization, they must be given a chance to rule, if not, they will walk away and the guns which have caused the Biya regime to lose sleep over the last five years will continue to deliver the results. Mr. Biya’s succession is one major item that might make or break Franco-Cameroon relations in the days ahead. 

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai with contributions from Rita Akana  

The Civil Cabinet at the Presidency of the Republic released a tentative program on President Emmanuel Macron’s visit saying that Biya or his representative will welcome the French leader at the Nsimalen International airport.

The program clearly reveals that Biya is now an X Factor and his regime is unsustainable.  For the first time in the history of the country, the presidency as an institution is not sure on who is going to receive a visiting French president.

To be accurate, Biya and his regime have no capacity to reform the sinking ship. The Francophone dominated administration is facing growing economic woes, crumbling infrastructure, warring elites and a serious secession crisis in Southern Cameroons.

For more than three decades, the 89-year-old Biya has relied on military action as his government’s prime means of legitimizing its power, something that has only become evident since the Ambazonia standoff exploded in 2016.

Before the Southern Cameroons Crisis, Biya and his criminal gang were looking fairly stable and could last for several years without profound change.

With age telling on Biya and fuel crisis hitting Cameroon’s bottom line, political elites and the military leadership, the only sharp tool in Biya’s box is his kinsmen and women in the military, and Biya is increasingly flexing them in the Far North and in Southern Cameroons.

Now, Cameroon is actively, almost openly aggressively, bolstering activity in the Far North against Boko Haram Camerounaise, rebels from the Central African Republic and armed bandits in the cities of Douala and Yaoundé including Ambazonia Restoration Forces.

Political commentators noted that the last edition of the Africa Cup of Nations hosted in Cameroon was one of the most militaristic in years.

The French have been supplying Biya with outdated tanks, post World War I missiles, expired electronic warfare systems and flying coffins passing for fighter jets. But what is more disturbing for the French now is Cameroon’s next president.

The problem for President Emmanuel Macron is that France doesn’t seem to have a long-term vision any more for its “former” colonies in Africa. President Macron himself has been jumping from solving crisis to solving crisis all over Francophone Africa-Guinea, Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, and Macron is gradually drifting toward Anglophone Africa where leaders think properly and where political and strategic solutions are constantly being applied rather than military solutions.

It is hard to tell what Biya’s biggest problem right now is! Everything in Cameroon is crashing and fast and even Francophone millionaires are fleeing an economy which now has no room to expand.

And with foreign and local investors running away, Biya now has very limited choices: play nice with the Bamilekes, which means relax the Beti Ewondo grip on the Douala Port and pretend to ignore the Bamileke boycott of the Kribi Port or be replaced as Head of State by a Bamileke. Neither of these sound like options Biya is comfortable with!

So what does this actually mean for the so-called one and indivisible Cameroon? The answer is simple: collapse. Cameroon is indeed is a plane in a tailspin.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

President Paul Biya is on his way out and events in Yaoundé including the fuel crisis are shifting the balance in favour of his departure, Cameroon Intelligence Report has gathered from credible sources inside the military.

French President Emmanuel Macron is expected to push the authoritarian leader to resign during his visit to Cameroon next week.

Biya’s days as head of state are now over concurred three senior military officials contacted by our undercover reporters in the nation’s capital, who offered their assessments of the numerous crises that have rocked the Cameroonian nation.

Still, Cameroon Intelligence Report military sources acknowledged that they expect the Cameroonian people to face continued struggle and sacrifice.

CIR understands France and the United States are maintaining contacts with the regime in Yaoundé, including contacts with some Beti Ewondo officials as a matter of principle.

“Hike in the prices of food items and the current fuel crisis is appearing as if Yaoundé is under EU and AU sanctions” observed our Yaoundé City reporter.

In all, every Cameroon government department exploited by the Biya Francophone regime to guarantee President Paul Biya’s continued stay in power has now been subjected to these natural sanctions. Hunger, poverty, power failure, insecurity, the crisis in Southern Cameroons, Boko Haram incursions and now the fuel crisis is choking off Biya’s ability to prosecute its campaign of suppression against the Cameroonian people.

The metrics are moving against Biya

The French are handling the situation in Cameroon in a markedly different manner. President Macron is expected to privately call on Biya to step down next week during his one day visit to Yaoundé. The French are now aware that Cameroon will change in its own way  and that the so-called Biya family clamour for Franck Biya to succeed his father will unleash an unprecedented massacre in Sub Saharan Africa.

There has been an uptick in horrific brutality witnessed in Southern Cameroons and Biya’s pledge to make peace with British Southern Cameroonians remains a lie and an empty promise.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

Five years into a deadly separatist conflict in Cameroon’s English-speaking regions, hopes of finding a negotiated settlement seem more distant than ever as both the government and secessionist rebels dig in, according to civil society activists.

It’s a conflict marked by spikes of extreme violence that invariably target civilians. The latest high-profile incident was last month, when government soldiers killed nine people in Missong village, in the anglophone Northwest region.

Rights groups accuse both the security forces and secessionist fighters of serious abuses that include extrajudicial killings, rape, kidnapping, and torture.

The root of the conflict is the central government’s historical marginalisation of the two English-speaking regions, the Northwest and Southwest, home to about 20 percent of the population.

But the dynamics of the violence have changed with the growth of a lucrative “war economy”, typically involving kidnapping and the broader extortion of the civilian population. The political and economic spoils of the war have reduced the incentive to find a negotiated settlement.

“This is no longer a struggle for the common man, but instead an economic venture,” Alhaji Mohammed Aboubakar, the influential imam of the Central Mosque in Buea, Southwest region, told The New Humanitarian by cell phone earlier this year.

And that is not good news for the 640,000 people displaced over the five years of war. The conflict has upturned the lives of more than two million people and lead to sexual and gender-based violence perpetrated by both sides, shuttered schools, and impoverished both regions.

Peace postponed

All known peace initiatives – and they have so-far involved the United Nations, the Catholic church and regional and international governments – have either stalled or failed.

That has included the “Swiss process”, a behind-the-scenes move by the Geneva-based NGO Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue to host a series of “pre-talks” — capacity-building sessions with separatist leaders. It ran aground in 2019 after the Cameroon government rejected the approach.

Secret bilateral negotiations, led primarily by the office of Prime Minister Joseph Ngute and a group of imprisoned separatist leaders known as the “Nera 10” , also stumbled after two exploratory rounds – the result of infighting among secessionists and a perceived lack of will within the government to make the necessary political concessions.

The largely diaspora-based separatist leadership – initially key to raising funds and buying weapons – has seen their influence slip as fighters increasingly turn to homegrown sources of revenue. Their political clout has also been diminished by constant internal feuding.

“When petty self-interest clouds the minds of so-called leaders, their relevance to the suffering masses – who are literally an ocean away – will be non-existent,” said Sarah Derval of the pro-peace coalition of female civil society leaders, the Southwest-Northwest Women’s Task Force.

That lack of control over fighters has encouraged a sense of lawlessness, which has undermined the appeal of the separatist cause.

In some cases, tired of the war – and what is often the high-handedness of the armed men in the bush – communities have demanded that secessionist fighters leave their villages, or have attacked separatist camps. That does not necessarily mean a vote of confidence in the government; rather, it’s likely a sign of frustration over the disruption caused by the conflict.

Yet, the perception of the fighters is that they are local champions, risking their lives for a legitimate cause. “We are living among the people we are fighting for, and will never lose touch of what their situation is,” the spokesperson for the umbrella Ambazonia Military Forces, who goes by the nom de guerre “The Liberator”, told The New Humanitarian.

Rise of the ‘conflict-preneurs’

Abductions have been one of the main methods for separatist fighters to assert control. They are referred to as “arrests”, with individuals released when “bail is paid” – in other words, a ransom.

Once largely limited to government officials, and those seen as hostile to the secessionist movement, kidnapping is now so widespread it can be impossible to determine who is responsible for a particular abduction, with multiple groups – some purely criminal – demanding money.

“At the outset of this crisis, it was clearly the non-state armed groups engaging in the practice,” said Akem Kelvin Nkwain, a lawyer with the Buea-based NGO Centre for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa. “While that still occurs, now there are many gangs who have no stake in the conflict and are after people for no political reason – it’s just about money.”

There is a similar, long-standing practice of paying bribes to government officials for the release of people detained by the security forces – sometimes on the flimsiest of pretexts. It’s a racket that has increased with the crisis, with failure to pay a bribe potentially resulting in being held indefinitely on terrorism charges.

Separatist groups also tax profitable areas of the economy, including the cocoa industry. Cameroon is the world’s fifth largest producer, with nearly half of the cocoa coming from the Southwest region. Output suffered at the beginning of the conflict, but over time, armed groups have imposed a system of fees that allows the crop to be transported over the border to Nigeria or to the main international port in Douala.

“We allow them to do their business, but they have to support the struggle,” a separatist fighter, known as General A.M. Michael, based in the Southwest region, told The New Humanitarian.

A triumphal government

Although the war has absorbed some of the military’s best units, an emboldened government feels able to contain the insecurity. This month it celebrated the death of a feared commander, Oliver Lekeaka – better known as “Field Marshal” – whose body was put on public display.

A critical earlier victory was the successful hosting of the 2021 African Cup of Nations football tournament. Despite the separatists’ vow to wreck the event, matches went ahead in the Southwest region, with little disruption.

The government sees the situation in urban areas as relatively stable, with the separatists unable to coordinate any major action – especially as bouts of internecine violence among rival commanders continues to take a toll on the movement.

Seemingly of more pressing concern to politicians is the succession issue, analysts suggest – who will take over from the country’s ageing president, Paul Biya. Political concessions now, as part of a peace deal, would mean changes to a political economy on which Biya’s rule is based.

“Biya and his tribesmen have robbed the country blind, and refuse to concede power of any instrument of state in order to continue to do so,” said Joseph Wirba, a former MP who fled the country after condemning the government’s actions in the anglophone regions. “They won’t change unless forced,” he told The New Humanitarian.

So what’s next?

It’s widely acknowledged that at some stage there needs to be a negotiated settlement. “Every day that this pointless war goes on, the blood of another life stolen from us stains the ground of this land,” said Esther Omam, a leading peace advocate.

The urgency for talks is even shared by some rank and file separatist fighters. “The more the war is prolonged, even if we get the desired result at the end of the day, we run the risk of many lives being lost,” explained The Liberator.

But peacemaking takes hard work, notes Andrew Nkea, archbishop of Bamenda. He has been involved in multiple efforts to initiate talks in his conflict-hit community, and is realistic that ending a war, in which so many interests are involved, will be an uphill struggle.

“There is no quick fix to a conflict like this one,” he told The New Humanitarian. “This is going to be a long process.”

Culled from The New Humanitarian

The growing political conflict in Yaoundé over who to succeed the 89-year-old President Paul Biya is a result of some tribalists struggling to maintain the Beti Ewondo hegemony and making extremely provocative moves.

It’s a serious situation in which some few in Etoudi are driving the already divided country into a major conflict east of the Moungo, and it’s all about Beti Ewondo political elites protecting the Biya hegemony and also protecting their unique power status.

An obscure group known as the National Network of Youths for Peace and Stability in Cameroon has recently being flying banners of Franck Emmanuel Biya in Yaoundé as the potential successor to his father President Paul Biya.   

In one of its large banners deployed on Saturday, July 9, 2022 in front of the Grand Mosque near the Police Academy in Yaoundé and ignored by state authority, the so-called youth movement wrote that “God, destiny and the country present Franck Emmanuel Biya to continue the work of his glorious predecessors. Together, let us take up the challenge of a more prosperous Cameroon”.

The leader of the group Alhadji Aboubakar Garba, an unknown political figure has been quoted as saying that the banner heralds Franck Biya’s campaign for the presidential elections of 2025.

The choice of an Alhadji as leader of the group is deliberate and is designed to bring tremendous pressure on the Northern regions and also on the huge Muslim community in order to try to make the North accept the Beti Ewondo’s leadership and to comply with the Biya family succession plan. This is a dangerous situation and the consequences will be far reaching.

These Etoudi insiders are playing with fire at a petrol station by attempting to give Franck Biya the nation’s top job.  

The placing of the Franck Biya banner in front of the Grand Mosque in Yaoundé remains an extremely provocative move by the Biya gang. The people of French speaking Cameroon have been very, very slow to respond, but they will do at some point.

The 51 year-old Franck Biya, has not commented on the current situation and some in Yaoundé say he is simply apolitical, entrepreneur and a businessman.

By Rita Akana in Yaoundé

Never underestimate your enemy and never hold that old ways will always deliver the same results. This is the lesson the Yaoundé government is learning after realizing that the military violence which had put an end to the Marquisard movement which rocked the country shortly after independence cannot roll back the massive rebellion staged by the country’s English-speaking minority.

When the issues in the two English-speaking regions of the country started, the government thought it would resort to its old ways to roll back the uprising. It did not know that times had changed and a change in attitude was necessary.

For more than five years, the English-speaking parts of the country have been transformed into an open killing field for both soldiers and civilians. The government had underestimated the anger that had been eating up English-speaking Cameroonians and its poor choice of outdated solution has only made matters worse.

For close to six years, Cameroon has been bleeding. Thousands of its sons and daughters have been sent to an early grave. A protest, designed to draw the government’s attention to the sorry plight of the English-speaking minority, has been poorly managed and it has today become a millstone around the government’s neck. Many children are out of school because they are being denied their right to education by separatist fighters in many towns and villages in Southern Cameroons.

Sex has become a weapon of war, with women being raped and young girls impregnated by people they do not even know. Soldiers who are supposed to protect honest and ordinary citizens have themselves become a major threat to the people they are supposed to protect. The Southern Cameroons crisis has become their stock in trade and their bosses in Yaoundé are doing their best to ensure that the war does not come to an end anytime soon.

The Amba fighters, whom many people thought would protect the population in their poorly organized war for independence, have become the law onto everybody. They have turned against their own people, using the war to earn fast cash. Uneducated gun-totting rascals have become judges, lawyers and even archbishops.  They settle disputes they know nothing about, and their decisions are never based on any sentencing guides. To them, anything is just an opportunity for them to demonstrate their newfound power, power exercised through the barrel of the gun.

The Southern Cameroons crisis is a real disaster in its superlative degree and there is no end in sight. Many lives have been lost and people’s livelihoods have been ruined because the government’s poor decisions. This is a war which could have been avoided through dialogue and negotiations if the government had embraced new and innovative ways of dealing with conflicts.

The government, especially its extremist members, who thought that violence was their weapon of choice to crush the rebellion, is now seeking to find new ways which will help the country heal. The talk in Yaoundé now is how to bring in moderate Southern Cameroonians into the government so as douse some of the fire which is destroying the country. 

Any Southern Cameroonian who has some leverage over some of the people in Southern Cameroons and abroad is today being wooed to play a key role in the country’s government. According to a secret service agent in Yaoundé who spoke to Cameroon Intelligence Report on condition of anonymity, human rights activist, Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor-Balla, had been contacted for him to join the government as a way of demonstrating that the government was warming up to the idea of an inclusive government. 

Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor-Balla, who has been a key player in the socio-political events playing out in the two English-speaking regions of the country, tactfully declined the proposal brought to him by a Beti Minister whose identity the Cameroon Concord News Group has decided to protect.

According to the secret service agent who received the minister’s report and feedback, Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor-Balla told the minister that he was focused on the post-Biya era, as the government had demonstrated a lot of bad will when it comes to dealing with the main issues Southern Cameroonians have presented to the government. The government is clearly stranded, and it is now using any means to find a lasting solution to a problem it said did not exist.

For months, the Unity Palace has been struggling to put together a government of national unity which will include a brand new and neutral prime minister who does not belong to a political party and has extensive leverage over the separatists who have demonstrated that they are made of the stuff which can destabilize the Yaounde government. 

According to a secret service agent who operates within the Unity Palace, government officials are losing sleep because of the chaos which is playing out in Southern Cameroons. They have run out of solutions and even the most zealous among them are now eating a massive humble pie. Their threats and intimidation have not cowed Southern Cameroonians who are more determined to address many issues now rather than later to spare future generations the pain of dealing with a decades-old problem. 

The Unity Palace has been talking with non-CPDM members for a possible replacement of the current prime minister, Dion Ngute, who has fallen short of the ruling Mafia’s expectations. He has not succeeded to disconnect the Southwest region from the rebellion as expected and he is even accused of killing his former henchman, Kenneth Nanji, because of money.

It is being reported that the leading candidate for the post of Prime Minister is insisting on the government releasing all Southern Cameroonians arrested during the conflict which is tearing the country apart. To the candidate, such a gesture will demonstrate that the government is honest and serious about bringing peace to the country.

The candidate, an international civil servant, who, according to sources at the Presidency, clearly stands for an American or a Canadian-style federal system, is also calling for a general amnesty for all those who have been directly or indirectly involved in the war which has already consumed more than seven thousand lives as evidence that the government wants to walk away from this conflict which has cost much money and ruined the economy.  He has also advised the government to rapidly deal with the issue of dual nationality which will be a demonstration of its willingness to work with its expanding Diaspora. 

The government is stuck, and it wants to relief itself of its self-imposed pain. Its arrogance has brought more pain than gain and if it really wants to put the country back onto the path to peace and development, it must make peace with the various factions which disagree with it, especially its English-speaking minority which has proven that winning a war does not depend on the size of the military. If peace must really return to Cameroon, Biya regime must change its ways. It must consider English-speaking Cameroonians as citizens of Cameroon in their own right, and it must learn how to live up to its own commitments. 

There is no issue in Cameroon that cannot be addressed if the political will is there. For more than five years, the government has been chasing shadows. It must learn how to focus on the objects, if not its issues will continue to stalk it like a stubborn shadow. The Southern Cameroons crisis will not go away until the government adopts new ways. Silence and arrogance have not cut it for five years. This demonstrates that the wrong solutions have been adopted and the results leave much to be desired. The government cannot be trusted. It has always been speaking on both sides of its mouth and that is why reasonable Southern Cameroonians are reluctant to be part of any solution engineered by the government.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai with correspondent files