President Paul Biya is now the world’s oldest head of state following the demise of Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II on Thursday. The Queen died peacefully at Balmoral in Scotland on Thursday aged 96, Buckingham Palace announced.

“The death of Her Majesty Elizabeth II is felt painfully and affects the Commonwealth of Nations. She had a unique stature and played an emblematic role throughout history,” tweeted Biya, who now becomes the world’s oldest sitting head of state.

The 89-year-old autocrat has been at the helm of central Africa’s largest economy for 40 years and counting. If his prior seven years as prime minister are added to his four-decade reign, Biya would be the world’s longest-ruling non-royal leader.

Economic downturn

Biya is followed in age by Michel Naim Aoun, the 88-year-old former military general who has served as president of Lebanon since October 2016.

Under Biya, Cameroon survived an economic downturn in the mid-1980s to the early 2000s and moved from a one-party to a multiparty state.

The Lion Man, as the octogenarian leader is fondly referred to by members of his ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) party and his admirers, reluctantly accepted multiparty politics in the 90s, though he has remained a serial election winner, with opposition parties describing all the votes as routinely rigged in his favour.

Cameroon has had only two heads of state since its independence from France in 1960 and Biya is the only president most of the nearly 28 million Cameroonians (World Population Review) have ever known. He inherited a country of less than 10 million people when he was sworn in for the first time in 1982, succeeding the country’s first president, Ahmadou Ahidjo. Cameroon has a largely youth population, with more than 60 per cent of the populace under the age of 25.

Biya raised hope when he ascended to the helm but his tenure has been mired in controversies, with the leader coming under heavy criticism for authoritarian rule and endemic corruption in a country where an average citizen lives on less than $2 a day.

Cameroon had been rated as ‘the most corrupt country in the world’ by Transparency International, which ranked the country as the top most corrupt nation in the world successively in 1998 and 1999.

Biya has also become notorious as an absentee president ruling from abroad, lavishly spending taxpayers’ money in luxurious hotels in Switzerland, which is described as the second home of the permanently holidaying leader. He regularly swings off to the Alpine country for some rest at the Intercontinental Hotel in Geneva.

A 2018 investigation by the Organised Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP) estimated that Biya spent nearly 60 days on private visits out of the country the previous year and that he spent a third of the year abroad in 2006 and 2009.

The report, described by Biya’s supporters as “propaganda”, said the leader had spent $182 million on his private travel since becoming president. It said Biya spent $40,000 a day for hotel accommodation for himself and his entourage.

Dominated parliament

Biya would have been ineligible to run and eventually be elected for a sixth term in 2011 if the ruling party-dominated parliament had not voted three years earlier to amend the constitution, removing presidential term limits. The tinkering of the constitution gave Biya the leverage to stay in power indefinitely.

Cameroon had largely been relatively peaceful under Biya until an insurgency by Nigerian-based Boko Haram spilled over into the country since 2013. Three years later, what could be his biggest challenge – an industrial strike by lawyers and teachers in the English-speaking part of the country – started. It morphed into a separatist conflict crackdown on protesters.

Separatist groups sprouted and increased demands for independence of the two regions, giving birth to armed groups that have been battling government troops since. The violence has caused about 6,000 deaths and a major humanitarian crisis, with almost 600,000 people internally displaced in the Anglophone and neighbouring regions, and over 77,000 forced to become refugees in Nigeria, according to humanitarian organisations.

Biya, who rarely speaks to the media, left it up in the air whether he will seek reelection or retire at the end of his current mandate when he told a French journalist in July that he still has three years left for his current seven-year term to expire.

“Wait until the end of the mandate to know whether I will stay or go back to the village,” Biya said at a joint press conference with visiting French President Emmanuel Macron in Yaoundé.

Culled from The Citizen

Cameroon, like most countries in the world, has signed many agreements on environmental protection and under those agreements; Cameroon is expected to protect endangered species. However, from every indication, environmental protection in Cameroon is just another slogan designed to please the international community. 

Ever since the price of beef went up following the outbreak of violence in Ukraine, Cameroonians have stepped up their consumption of wildlife as an alternative source of animal protein.

In many parts of the country, many “carnivorous” Cameroonians could be seen eating “bush meat” which is considered a delicacy in the country. Unfortunately, not many of them care about the impact of their irresponsible actions on the environment and future generations. 

Besides the trade on animals, there is also the danger of felling trees for fuel wood. Many Cameroonian households are incapable of purchasing cooking gas whose price has gone up over the last six months. The use of fuel wood and biomass to cook in Cameroon is altering the country’s landscape and setting the stage for many natural disasters which will hit the country like a ton of bricks.

Climate change is real, but Cameroonians are not worried about its adverse impact. Floods, rising sea levels and fires are threatening lives in many cities and towns in Cameroon. Recently, most coastal towns in Cameroon were flooded after many days of heavy rainfall and not even the government is sensitizing the public on how to mitigate the impact of such disasters. 

Cameroon is part of the Convention on international trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). To implement and incorporate it into its national laws, Cameroon laid down the National Strategy and Wildlife Control Strategy to regulate the trade and to manage and protect endangered species. 

Cameroon also ratified the UN treaty to combat desertification which has been implemented through a National plan to combat Desertification. Cameroon also ratified the UN Convention on the law of the sea and the Fisheries Act as well as the Territorial Waters Act which have been adopted, but partially implemented in real life due to the lack of a political will, lack of expertise and funding.

Lastly, the enforcement of most environmental instruments in Cameroon leaves much to be desired due to some internal and external factors and challenges such as funding, training, corruption, political will, commitment, technology, science and the government’s half-hearted involvement in environmental protection activities in the country

The country is clearly trailing other countries in this regard and political corruption, embezzlement of public funds and the absence of sufficient or adequate structures and infrastructure capable of strengthening and materializing the environmental laws and principles into real and concrete facts with relevant results from an institutional perspective are to blame for the government’s abysmal performance regarding environmental protection.

 Similarly, national scientists, researchers, public and private sector lack the means to participate in this process which must be inclusive. The public must also be trained and sensitized on the environmental issues facing the country and this requires financial resources which are unfortunately not available. This unfortunate situation has therefore triggered a vicious circle whereby poverty leads to environmental degradation, and environmental degradation compounds the poverty that is already hurting the population. 

By Briyan Tambe Ashu

Populations in the Anglophone north-west and south-west regions of Cameroon remain at risk of atrocities amidst ongoing clashes between government forces and armed separatist groups. On 11 August Human Rights Watch reported that between 24 April and 12 June 2022 at least 10 people were summarily killed by Cameroonian security forces during military operations against armed separatists groups. During the operations soldiers burned homes and destroyed and looted health facilities and shops. Armed separatists perpetrated grave human rights abuses during the same period, including killing and kidnapping civilians. Separatists have also continued their assault on education, attacking students, teachers and schools. Human Rights Watch documented that at least 33 students and five teachers were kidnapped by armed separatists since January.

Populations in Cameroon’s Anglophone regions have faced widespread violence since tensions over cultural rights and marginalization of Anglophone populations escalated in October 2016. In the resulting clashes, government forces and armed separatist groups have perpetrated grave violations and abuses that may amount to atrocities, including extrajudicial killings, kidnappings and torture. Since the crisis began, more than 6,000 civilians have been killed and at least 666,000 displaced. Few perpetrators have been held accountable.

Since 2021 the government has intensified its attacks against armed separatist strongholds in attempts to end the conflict. During military operations, government forces have routinely targeted civilian populations for their alleged cooperation with separatist groups. Armed separatists have retaliated by using more deadly weapons, including improvised explosive devices and anti-tank rocket launchers, putting civilians at increased risk. Separatist groups have also expanded their sources of revenue through kidnapping and extortion in the north-west and south-west. Civilians are also at risk of targeted attacks by armed separatists for their suspected collaboration with the government.

Juliette Paauwe, Cameroon Expert at the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, said that, “despite escalating violence, the international community has failed to adequately respond to years of deadly conflict in Cameroon. While long overdue, the African Union (AU) and the UN Security Council (UNSC) must help establish a comprehensive ceasefire to address the growing atrocity risks faced by civilian populations in the Anglophone regions.” The AU and UNSC should also facilitate an inclusive dialogue between the government, separatist groups and Anglophone communities, mediated by a neutral player on neutral territory. Security forces must end all extrajudicial killings of unarmed civilians and ensure that the human rights of all Cameroonians are equally protected, regardless of cultural identity. Armed separatist groups must also halt attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure.

Source: reliefweb.int

For more than six years, Cameroonians in the country’s two English-speaking regions have been religiously observing the civil disobedience called for by separatists. Each Monday, English-speaking Cameroonians are asked by people they do not see to stay at home as a way of expressing their disagreement with the Yaoundé government which has been inflexible and indifferent to the people’s plea. 

Businesses in the two regions are still required to pay their taxes regardless of whatever the business-owners believe in. While many extremists among the population seem to enjoy this game that is hurting the economy of the two regions, businesses are not enjoying this game which does not really make any economic sense. 

Many businesses have been shut down and those which are still hoping for better days are really struggling. Despite their struggle, the Yaoundé government still expects these businesses to pay taxes. The businesses have a choice. They can either take instructions from the Yaoundé government and open their doors everyday of the week or comply with the orders of those they don’t know or will never see and shut down their businesses every Monday. 

However, one thing remains. Any businesses which are open must pay taxes whether they operate one day in a week or four times a week. The Yaoundé government only expects the taxes to hit its accounts at the end of the month, failure of which, the government will send out its agents to seal the business premises forever.

While the government and business-owners are still struggling to find a common ground due to ghost town operations, the architects of this destructive policy can transform their ghost town operations into something admirable.

One thing many English-speaking Cameroonians lay claim to is their unique way of doing things. They hold that their towns were cleaner prior to the 1972 reunification and many of them are looking forward to a return to those days when community labour made the towns and villages in the English-speaking regions very clean.

Instead of keeping the population at home on Mondays, the architects of Ghost town operations could as well call on everybody in the two English-speaking regions to come out on Monday from 8am to midday to clean their environment. Ghost town operations could be transformed into a blessing in disguise.

A revolution must not only be painful! It can also bring huge benefits! If East Cameroon is dirty as many English-speaking Cameroonians claim, Southern Cameroonians could use this period marked by a rebellion to demonstrate how constructive they can be. It does not make sense to keep people at home all day long hoping that the Yaoundé government will feel the impact. 

Human beings were made to work and not to be at rest. A body at rest will always be at rest. If Southern Cameroonians transform their Monday Civil Disobedience Day into something positive, the world will see the rebellion as something which can bring some benefits to the people and their environment. Southern Cameroonians should not only be noted for their massive destructive ability. Out of a bad situation, something positive could be manufactured. 

The leaders of the insurgency should declare Mondays in the two English-speaking regions as Environment Day and the population should be made to clean their immediate surroundings, unclog the gutters, and make sure that when it rains, the run-off should find its way to the rivers and the sea. 

Instead of burning shops when the owners open them on Mondays, the business-owners should be given lessons on environmental science, climate change and recycling. Today, most towns and villages in the two English-speaking regions of the country are dealing with the impact of climate change. Plastic pollution has become the new disease as the population disposes of its plastic mess without thinking of the long-term impact. 

It will be a great thing to add something positive to a questionable strategy. Ghost towns for a better environment should be the new slogan in the two English-speaking regions and this will go a long way in addressing those issues which are making life out there unbearable. 

If the invisible leaders have good heads on their shoulders, this is the type of idea they should embrace, develop, and sell to the population. Keeping your environment clean does not only spare you the pain of dealing with diseases, it also helps you to develop environmental awareness. Environmental hygiene is something everybody should embrace. If practiced in those two regions, Mondays will never be considered as wasted days.  Make the most of a painful strategy!

By Dr Joachim Arrey

It was late on Friday, July 29, 2022 and Biktusi music was pulsating from the residence of a multimillion-FCFA home in Yaoundé owned by a former cabinet minister who orchestrated one of the biggest frauds in Cameroon history.

After four years in the Kondengui Maximum Security Prison in Yaoundé, the former Minister of Water and Energy, Basile Atangana Kouna is now a free man.

Basile Kouna’s clemency decision went very fast. The Special Criminal Court ordered his release late on Friday, July 29, 2022 and before it was 9 pm that same Friday, Basile Atangana Kouna was already enjoying life in the nation’s capital.

Annie Noelle Bahounoui Batende, president of the collegiality of judges and also president of the Special Criminal Court pronounced the decision following the restitution of the corpus delicti to the public treasury, an amount of 1.265 billion FCFA.

Interestingly, there was a correspondence from the Minister-Secretary General at the Presidency of the Republic, Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh to the Minister of Justice, Keeper of the Seals, Laurent Esso, informing him that President Paul Biya has decided to stop the prosecution of Basile Atangana Kouna.

On the same day after being granted clemency by President Biya and released after serving four years at the Kondengui Prison, Minister Basile Atangana Kouna was under a biktusi ball celebrating with his wife, family and supporters from his Beti Ewondo tribal extraction.

Not far away from Yaoundé precisely in Paris, France, Chief Inoni Ephraim former Prime Minister and Head of Government, who had been convicted in a separate scheme to siphon off millions of dollars in fraudulent Albatross payments, was also at a private Cameroon government holiday home instead of in the Kondengui Maximum Security prison. Thanks to several commutations by President Biya, CPDM criminals are being relieved of any “remaining obligation.”

This is not the outcome that judges at the Special Criminal Court expected when they and other top state prosecutors and police investigators set out to expose what these cabinet ministers have done to the state of Cameroon.

After four years of painstaking work including millions of FCFA spent to arrest Minister Kouna Atangana in Nigeria — participants in a type of fraud that costs the Cameroonian taxpayer several millions of FCFA — had been wiped away by the stroke of a Biya-Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh pen.

The so-called presidential rationale did not hold much weight with those who had sought to hold Minister Basile Kouna accountable. Correspondingly, no anger has been elicited among those who spent years pursuing the complex prosecution against the Minister.

President Biya’s tribal clemency decision remains an incredible kick in the teeth to the judges and prosecutors at the Special Criminal Court who work every day under very difficult circumstances to achieve justice and some restitution to the Cameroonian taxpayer from the billions that has literally been stolen.

This frustration is shared by many deep inside the regime including some prominent magistrates who spent two years working on the case.  A senior aide to Minister Laurent Esso has been quoted as saying that the Biya clemency decision is disheartening and demoralizing.

In 2013, President Biya commuted a former Minister of Basic Education; Haman Adama after four years of pre-trial detention for misappropriation of public funds. Like Basile Atangana Kouna, Haman Adama we are told also repaid the embezzled funds.  But those who reportedly considered Minister Haman Adama case to be the most important conviction were outraged at what Mr. Biya did.

Basile Kouna’s presidential pardon so to speak is an insult and slap in the face to Cameroonians. Everyone in the political bureau of the ruling CPDM remains baffled at why Mr. Biya acted in this case. The Head of State supports men and women with ill gotten wealth, supports  rich and well-connected people — really bad people by giving them special treatment when decent people are languishing in the jails.

The festivities at Minister Kouna’s home soon after his release surprised everyone in Yaoundé. But a neighbour contacted by this reporter opined that crime pays in Biya’s Cameroon.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

It is really hard to define who is a Cameroonian, how we see ourselves in the troubled passage towards living together in a multi tribal so-called democracy.

Anticipating the inevitable tumult that would, rightly, encompass an Anglophone presidency after Biya– poverty, diseases, cost of living, complete and total degradation of public services, about the tortuous, denied consequences of joining the Francophonie and the Commonwealth – it is worth dwelling for a moment on an optimistic note.

An Anglophone head of state will not resolve the Southern Cameroons crisis immediately; the Cameroonian political and ethnic divide is another matter. But it would be an event that will guarantee for a long time the existence of the one and indivisible Cameroon or better still the United Republic of Cameroon.

We of the Cameroon Concord News Group believe that a head of state of Anglophone heritage would be something to celebrate.

This is not to say that all is well in Yaoundé, or that all is even well within the ruling CPDM party. Frankly speaking, it is not. The 89-year-old President Biya is still struggling to put up a strong man image, but it is clear that he is running out of time. Like any other common African dictator, he may end up humiliating himself, his family and country if he refuses to exit soonest through the big door.

However, from the look of things, Biya is insisting on dying in power and he might do so in public during one of those events in which he might want to prove that he is physically strong to rule the country.

The late veteran CRTV journalist Epsy Ngum repeatedly said that the CPDM have a problem with Anglophones and, indeed, research from prominent Anglophone media houses showed that the Biya regime is an anti-Anglophone regime.  

Without government incentives and support, the Anglophone community in the so-called one and indivisible Cameroon is, relative to other Francophone groups, educated and well-off.

From all the nonsense coming out of Yaoundé!  Judged on the content of what Francophone political commentators are saying, and how they are saying it, an Anglophone is overwhelmingly the better choice to take over the presidency after Biya. None deep within the ruling CPDM party is a presidential material and none looks like men and women who can cope with being head of state.

An Anglophone head of state will reinstall patriotism that we are all citizens of a country whose institutions matter. Biya’s presidency has been a disgrace principally because he has no respect for the explicit treaties and tacit conventions by which a democracy reproduces itself. An Anglophone head of state will return to the bounds of decency and respect for norms.

It is indeed shameful that there are some few in Yaoundé who are doing their best to steer away from substantive issues with the Franck Biya For President joke. There is nothing they are offering with the Franck Biya joke than simply saying he should succeed his father!  No discourse about the failures of state institutions and corruption, nothing on education, nothing on healthcare and almost nothing on job creation. The Franck Biya stuff is depressingly trivial.

The Southern Cameroons crisis, the dangerous Boko Haram incursions, the deteriorating security situation in the East and the huge political divide in the country has made it more obvious than ever that the job of choosing a head of state after Biya cannot fall to the members of a political party.

A majority of French speaking Cameroonians now believe that having an Anglophone head of state would make things better for them, and that majority says it doesn’t matter whether he or she is a South Westerner or North Westerner.

By Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai

In defining independence strategies around perfect circumstances, war advocates in the NOSO have often been so blinded by their conception of a desirable future as to overlook current shifts in geopolitical dynamics. Internally, Cameroon was able to maintain its military dominance because President Biya was able to use the levers of the state to seize many opportunities on the diplomatic scene. However, his presidency is coming to an end, and with the tectonic shift in world politics resulting from the Ukrainian war, there is an urgent need to debate what kind of geostrategic outcome President Biya’s departure will bring to Cameroon.

As a geostrategist, these questions preoccupy my mind every day. Despite the widespread perception of theories of change due to an inevitable transition, Cameroonians have not yet begun to look at geopolitics or geostrategy in the right light. I chose this sensational title to get your full attention so that we can focus on the boring but critical realities of geopolitics that will affect current and future generations of our countrymen.

Why is Macron in Cameroon?

Macron is in Cameroon because of Ambazonia. He was invited to Cameroon by President Paul Biya, but his primary interest is Ambazonia. Let me explain. Ambazonia was not the main topic in public, but all the analyzes I have done point to Ambazonia.

The reason is simple. The territory referred to as Ambazonia is home to crude oil, which has remained a cornerstone of the French economy since World War II. Ambazonian oil also accounts for nearly 50% of Cameroon’s import revenue each year. African crude oil remains a strategic asset for France and a key pillar in helping France maintain its standard of living over the past 50 years. We Africans have subsidized Europe with cheap exports, especially crude oil. Europe’s reliance on crude oil and gas, however, has only been moderated over the past two decades by Europe’s access to cheap Russian reserves. If Russian supply lines are closed, as Putin is preparing to do, France, like many other European nations, will have no choice but to rely again on African reserves, especially those of the Gulf of Guinea.

Once you realize that Europe needs oil and gas to power its cars and heat its homes in the winter, you have to accept that the last thing a Western leader wants is for people to freeze to death in the winter. . It’s a real suicide.

Oil diplomacy will intensify in the coming months. We are currently preparing the visit of the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, to President Biya, just after that of President Macron.

TotalFinaElf alias TotalEnergies is the world’s 5th largest oil producer with more than 180 billion dollars in revenue for the year 2021, but France does not produce a drop of oil. Central African countries such as Cameroon are the suppliers. In exchange, France offered its support to regimes like Paul Biya, the Bongos in Gabon, the Debys in Chad and Dennis Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazza. For decades, this arrangement served France but disrupted the economic structures of these countries. Resource-dependent economies have created oligarchs in Central Africa. Today, thanks to advances in internet communication, the tide is turning. There is growing sentiment against what some Africans see as a neo-colonial framework that creates a small superclass at the expense of millions who live in abject poverty.

Many Cameroonians do not have a sufficient vision of the future. The resulting naivety creates an unreasonable expectation that Macron will defend our interests at his expense. Some even think that he should give up the CFA franc. Others demand that he unblock France’s colonial machine. These results remain improbable without sustained pressure and the levers to make them a reality. Macron may be a liberal democrat, but any world leader is by default a fiscal conservative when it comes to global trade. Every Western leader has taken an oath to defend the interests of his country, militarily and economically. Expecting Macron to drop the CFA or advocate for true liberalization of the Cameroonian economy in relation to world trade is no different from expecting him to come out for independence. Ambazonia. If he has to secure African oil and gas to keep his citizens warm in the winter or to run their cars and machines, he will, no matter what we think. It’s realpolitik.

However, as a serious student of geopolitics, I will also tell you that change is constant. Alliances are not permanent. The future could be very different. As long as oil demand remains strong, global powers will attempt to gain access to Ambazonia oil, and Cameroon’s sovereignty or French access will always be contested.

These external forces are what we often overlook in our political debates. I will therefore take the risk of going where many Cameroonian academics tend to abstain when talking about our oil and gas sector.

The oil industry in Cameroon is very important but remains opaque. According to the World Bank, 47% of all the money Cameroon makes from its exports comes from crude oil, and that crude oil is in Ambazonia. However, we all remember that the World Bank also concluded in January 2011 that only about 46% of the total oil revenues accruing to the government between 1977 and 2006 could be transferred to the budget. Their conclusion that the remaining 54% is not properly accounted for remains the same. If we consider the total amount of oil produced by Cameroon, the figures vary between 70,000 and 100,000 barrels per day. With a barrel of oil at $100 or 64,000 CFA today, this means that Cameroon earns between 6,400,000,000 and 10,000,000,000 CFA per day with oil alone. Without going into accounting details, this means for ordinary mortals that more than 3 billion CFA francs can be diverted per day from the oil account. This fluctuation in the reports also indicates accounting irregularities. What is also problematic is that the Cameroonian government was reporting 185,000 barrels per day in 1984 and no one has ever explained why there was a sudden drop of over 100,000 barrels in the reports after 1984. If these missing 100,000 barrels in declared exports are also a reality, then around 10 billion CFA francs are being siphoned off daily. Cameroonians will therefore want to know who is sucking up this money and where it is going. There are now more tools available for credible investigation by Cameroonian academics and financial experts. The oil debate is one we will have at another time, but these numbers are worth noting to understand the complexity we will have to tackle along the way and the questions that will arise.

TotalFinaElf alias TotalEnergies is the world’s 5th largest oil producer with more than 180 billion dollars in revenue for 2021 alone, but France does not produce a drop of oil. Central African countries such as Cameroon are the suppliers. In exchange, France offered its support to regimes like Paul Biya, the Bongos in Gabon, the Debys in Chad and Dennis Sassou Nguesso in Congo-Brazza. For decades, this arrangement served France but disrupted the economic structures of these countries. Resource-dependent economies have created oligarchs in Central Africa. Today, thanks to advances in internet communication, the tide is turning. There is growing sentiment against what many see as a neo-colonial framework that creates a small superclass at the expense of millions who live in abject poverty.

Many Cameroonians do not have a sufficient vision of the future. The resulting naivety creates an unreasonable expectation that Macron will defend our interests at his expense. Some even think that he should give up the CFA franc. Others demand that he unblock France’s colonial machine. These results remain improbable without sustained pressure and the levers to make them a reality. Macron may be a liberal democrat, but any world leader is by default a fiscal conservative when it comes to global trade. Every Western leader has taken an oath to defend the interests of his country, militarily and economically. Expecting Macron to drop the CFA or advocate for true liberalization of the Cameroonian economy in relation to world trade is no different from expecting him to come out for independence. Ambazonia. If he has to secure African oil and gas to keep his citizens warm in the winter or to run their cars and machines, he will, no matter what we think. It’s realpolitik.

However, as a serious student of geopolitics, I will also tell you that change is constant. Alliances are not permanent. The future could be very different. As long as demand for oil remains strong, global powers will attempt to gain access to Ambazonia oil, and Cameroon’s sovereignty or French access will always be contested.

These external forces are what we often overlook in our political debates. I will therefore take the risk of going where many Cameroonian academics tend to abstain when talking about our oil and gas sector.

Today, Cameroon is a serious victim of the Dutch disease – the curse that afflicts many oil-producing nations. Elf Serepca discovered oil in 1947 off the coast of Southern Cameroons, long before independence. In 1960, Cameroonians, and even President Ahidjo, did not even know that we had oil. After independence, President Ahidjo was made aware of oil, which prompted him to call for the replacement of the Federal Republic by a unitary state. Without a unitary state, he had no basis for a legal claim. When he finally achieved the unitary state through the 1972 referendum, he then proceeded with the land reform of 1974, which made the President of Cameroon the owner of all untitled land throughout the National territory. From 1974 to 1977, President Ahidjo discreetly set up the SNH. The majority of the Cameroonian people only knew that we had oil after the establishment of SONARA. It was not possible to conceal a refinery.

Since 1977, all oil revenues have been controlled exclusively by the Presidency of the Republic. SNH is not an entity accessible to the public. With total control of oil revenues estimated at well over $100 billion since 1977, President Biya has been able to maintain control. As things stand, any president of Cameroon with access to the SNH account can pay the army even if Cameroonians refuse to pay taxes or shut down the economy. This leverage will not be available when Cameroonians start looking at the oil sector.

France benefited from this arrangement, but not as much as many believe today. The situation has changed over the past two decades. Prior to 2002, the French government was a major shareholder in TotalFinaElf, aka TotalEnergies, but had to cede its stake to the European Commission following a ruling by the Court of Justice of the European Communities which condemned the government’s excessive desire Frenchto control the business. As early as 2011, Total Energies began selling or deploying its key assets and operations from Cameroon to Côte d’Ivoire. Since 2009, most oil interests have been held by the Russians, Chinese and British. Companies like New Age Energy, Lukoil and Petrochina have won major concessions. Other Russian companies like Gazprom, Tatneft and Rosneftfaz continue to try to enter the market. It is these companies/competitors that Macron is interested in. His main interest is to obtain more latitude from President Biya. Western powers know that Putin makes money in Cameroon through Lukoil. If Europe is at war with Putin, granting concessions to Lukoil or any other Russian company can be interpreted as an act of hostility towards the West. The French journalist’s question asking President Biya about his position on the war in Ukraine highlights the deep concerns of Western capitals.

You may be wondering why it is important to know this and what is the connection to Ambazonia.

Today, Macron’s official position is that President Biya is an essential ally who will be able to guard and secure the oil assets from Ambas Bay to Bakassi. If President Biya is open to a long-term succession plan, France will probably prefer continuity to change. France will also prefer to support the decentralization programme. Macron will continue to work tirelessly to ensure that the interests of the French people are served. And the best way is to preserve and maintain the status quo.

But this dynamic is also subject to fundamental change if the NOSO war continues.

There is also growing concern in the West about President Biya’s declining mental and physical acuity. Many people have concluded that President Biya has set his sights on the Russians and the Chinese. The signing of the cooperation agreements with Russia is a diplomatic mistake that cemented this view. President Macron has just left Cameroon and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is about to arrive. In recent months, many Western capitals have begun to wonder whether working with Ambazonians will not be a more effective long-term approach to securing the key resources the West needs. If this continues, what if Ambazonians start exploring how to transfer Ambazonian oil interests to the French and Americans? What if Ambazonians come to their senses, put aside anti-French sentiment (which is growing exponentially among French speakers) and give Macron the political and economic dividends he desperately needs? What if Ambazonians choose to sell their oil to France, the United States, or both if the price is right? Can Cameroon survive if the Biya regime is perceived as hostile to the West in the midst of an existential war?

Geopolitics is about to get very complicated, as Putin redoubles his efforts. Ambazonia is in the eye of the storm. The geopolitical and economic importance of the Gulf of Guinea is about to increase. As Europe enters winter and Russian supply lines are closed, this is a time when Cameroon must rethink its strategic position. If the Ambazonians step up their diplomacy and offer assurances to the oil companies while Cameroon rests on its laurels because it killed the Marshal of Lebialem, there is a real risk that we will lose the war.

In geopolitics, there are no permanent friends. When we know that France has backed Biafra, we cannot exclude the likelihood that Macron and future French presidents will be Ambazonia’s key strategic partner in a few years, while French-speaking Cameroon disintegrates in the ethnic wars to come. if thePresident Biya has no viable succession plan. Even if President Biya is replaced by Franck Emmanuel Biya, that will not be enough to stop the looming catastrophe.

We can no longer continue to ignore it when it is the determining factor in the trajectory of our domestic and foreign policy. Cameroonians will have to look into the oil sector because it is at the heart of our destiny in geopolitics. We need to start thinking. If we fail to get around the table with solutions, we will all be on the menu after President Biya leaves.

If Ambazonia had no oil, would Cameroon be at war with our English-speaking brothers? If Ambazonia had no oil, would Macron be in Cameroon?

By Pr. Eric Mathias Owona Nguini

Vice-Rector in charge of Research of the University of Yaoundé I

Cameroonian political scientist