28, June 2018
Ambazonia Crisis has brought Cameroon to the brink of civil war 0
Cameroon’s governance and security problems have historically attracted little outside attention. But this seems likely to change, for two reasons. The first is the growing political crisis in the Central African nation’s English-speaking region. The second is a presidential election scheduled for October 2018.
Roughly 20% of the country’s population of 24.6 million people are Anglophone. The majority are Francophone. The unfair domination of French-speaking politicians in government has long been the source of conflict.
Activists in the country’s Anglophone western regions are protesting their forced assimilation into the dominant Francophone society. They argue that this process violates their minority rights, which are protected under agreements that date back to the 1960s. Anglophone political representation and involvement at many levels of society has dwindled since the Federal Republic of Cameroon became the United Republic of Cameroon in 1972. There are growing calls for the Anglophone region to secede from Cameroon.
This festering conflict represents a major test as Cameroon prepares for the October elections.
Three things are urgently needed now in Cameroon. The first is to understand the origins of the crisis. The second is to support an inclusive national dialogue. And the third is to ensure that the 2018 elections are free and fair for all.
Growing crisis
Before 1961, the Southern Cameroons were a British administered territory from Nigeria. They elected to join the Republic of Cameroon by UN plebiscite in 1961 around the time of decolonization.

A power-sharing agreement was reached: the executive branch of government was meant to be shared by Francophones and Anglophones. But that agreement has not been upheld and, over the years, Anglophone political representation has been steadily eroded.
The crisis came to a head in late 2016 when lawyers, joined by teachers and others with similar grievances, led protests in major western cities demanding that the integrity of their professional institutions be protected and their minority rights respected.
President Paul Biya responded by deploying troops to the region and blocking internet access. When peaceful demonstrations were met with violent repression it exacerbated tensions and escalated the conflict to a national political crisis.
On June 12, Amnesty International issued a report documenting human rights violations in Cameroon. The International Crisis Group says that at least 120 civilians and 43 members of security forces have been killed in the most recent waves of violence.
More than 20,000 people have fled to neighbouring Nigeria, and an estimated 160,000 are displaced within Cameroon.
Some human rights activists worry that Cameroon could be the site of Africa’s next civil war.
Agbor Nkongho, an Anglophone human rights lawyer and director of the Center for Human Rights and Democracy in Africa, told the Washington Post:
We are gradually, gradually getting there (civil war). I’m not seeing the willingness of the government to try to find and address the issue in a way that we will not get there.
Another issue is that there are diverse views even within the Anglophone and Francophone communities about what would be best for Cameroon going forward.
Obstacles to national unity
In October 2017 the separatist leader Julius Ayuk Tabe declared the independence of the Republic of Ambazonia. His interim government laid claim to a territory whose borders are the same as the UN Trust Territory of Southern Cameroons under British rule (1922-1961).

The interim government’s spokesman, Nso Foncha Nkem, invitedFrancophones to leave the region and called on Anglophones in Biya’s “rubber-stamp” government to return to Ambazonia and support the movement. He also pleaded for unity, asking that Anglophones speak in one voice.
However, that call has not overcome the challenges posed by diverse viewpoints within the Anglophone population itself. Some favour secession. Others want to return to the 1961 federation and the power-sharing agreement. There are those who prefer decentralization that would devolve power to regional leaders, and some who simply want an administrative solution that would leave the Republic of Cameroon as it stands.
And among the Francophone population, there is some support for the radical separatists, while some see the Anglophone situation as a general crisis of governance and others deny any problem exists.
Mongo Beti, a Francophone novelist and activist who spent 30 years in exile, observed after returning home in the 1990s that a general absence of identification with a viable, unified nation due to various divisions had frayed Cameroon’s social fabric and was a significant impediment to progress.
It is unclear whether Biya, who is 85 and in power since 1982, will run for re-election. His 38 years in office as a corrupt, absent leader have left the nation in tatters. The vast majority of Cameroonians, whether Anglophone or Francophone, are hungry for change.
The way forward?
There is an urgent need for an inclusive national dialogue to harness this desire for change.
The government must recognize that it faces a substantive national crisis and take extraordinary steps. A general conversation about governance in all its regions is also necessary. Given the depth and severity of people’s grievances, a holistic approach is needed that would address issues of governance, security, and civic engagement to mend the bonds that have been broken.
This is necessary if the current crisis it to become an opportunity to develop a new road map for the future that could empower citizens.
Culled from Quartz Media
9, July 2018
Congo-Kinshasa faces upsurge of violence unless a deal is done with President Kabila 0
Amid a fresh wave of civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the international community must question its confidence in President Joseph Kabila to achieve stability in a turbulent region. He has been at the helm since he took over as president in 2001 after his father, Laurent, was assassinated. The young Kabila ruled for a transitional period until 2006, before winning two elections.
He is now in his seventh year of what should have been just five years of his second term and is constitutionally barred from standing again. But he has remained in office after his mandate ended in late 2016. This, as the country awaits a long-delayed election. The delay has sparked deadly protests.
While Kabila cannot legally stand for a third term, the opposition is concerned that he might. Fears among opposition and church leaders have been further fuelled by Kabila’s appointment of three new judges to the constitutional court. Two are well-known allies.
But Kabila has no legitimacy and his authority is disintegrating. If the elections are delayed again there’s a real possibility that central Africa will slide into violent conflict once again. The armed violence is likely to be bloodier than in the past due to the number of fragmented localised groups aiming to grab their slice in one of the world’s most resource-rich countries.
Deteriorating situation
In the wake of Kabila’s refusal to cede power, the security situation has deteriorated. At least 10 of Congo’s 26 provinces are in the grip of armed conflict. This has forced over two million people to flee their homes, 800,000 of them children. The total number of internally displaced people is estimated to be 4.5 million while refugees are flocking into Uganda, Tanzania, Angola and Zambia.
The security situation in the DRC is dire. As the violence in Kasai and eastern parts of the country intensifies, escalating conflict in south eastern Congo looks set to continue.
More than 70 rebel groups are estimated to be operating in the country. They are all variously involved in skirmishes with the army or, more commonly, prey on civilians. This in turn creates a tangle of ethnic and tribal grievances for warlords to exploit.
In 2012, the M23 rebel movement briefly took the city of Goma. They were eventually thrown out by the Congolese army, supported by the UN. But the current violence in Kasai is threatening to overshadow even that disaster. In August 2017, for example, the “dead city” movements ensured that significant parts of the country’s urban population went on strike.
Some reports have suggested that more than 3,000 people have been killed since the start of 2017. More than 33,000 Kasai residents have fled into Angola. It has been suggested that the Bana Mura- a government sponsored militia – was behind the violence.
Last year major fighting occurred between Twa and Bantu populations in Tanganyika province. And as the year entered its last quarter, Uvira, on the outskirts of Lake Tanganyika, was the site for fighting between the rebel Yakutumba militia and government forces. Government forces fled and the rebels would have taken the city had they not been repulsed by Pakistani peacekeepers.
Despite a failure by the Yakutumba militia to take Uvira, it was a reminder of the level of dissatisfaction rising in the east, since the end of the Second Congo War in 2003. The rise of rebels operating in the east means violence could potentially spread to Kivu and beyond.
Uncertain times ahead
In 2017, presidential and legislative elections were delayed despite the Catholic Church reaching a deal with Kabila. The political crisis was further complicated by the death of long-standing opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi later in the year.
The election planned for December this year is unlikely to bring together the various groups or solve the outbreak of violence in the country. The most likely candidate with the perceived ability to bring together the different groups is Moïse Katumbi. He has succeeded in rallying together opposition parties into a coalition backing his candidacy – an impressive feat in a country as fragmented as the Congo.
He also has by far the best broad plan to reconcile the country, which is what the country needs if the fragile peace is going to hold. But the country’s attorney general announced recently that Katumbi may not be eligible to stand in presidential elections because he held Italian citizenship from October 2000 until January 2017.
Under Congo’s constitution, its nationals cannot hold dual citizenship and have to petition the government to regain their citizenship if they take up a foreign nationality. But the provision, however, is loosely enforced and many prominent politicians are believed to have second citizenships.
Kabila’s time in government has shown an inability to bring together the various ethnic groups and to control the growth of dissatisfied rebel groups. This is despite the fact that the DRC has the world’s largest UN peacekeeping force, numbering 18,000 blue helmets, who try to enforce a measure of calm in the east of the country.
Source: News 24