It is more than 6 years since 91-year-old President Biya launched a full-scale attack on the English speaking people of Southern Cameroons — but who is really winning the war in Ambazonia?

Frankly speaking, the answer cannot be straightforward. To be accurate, it is also no longer dependent on Southern Cameroons Self Defense Forces and the Ambazonia Interim Government but much on the political situation in La Republique du Cameroun.

Judging from Yaounde’s military calculations, progress, so far, has been slower than expected, according to Cameroon Intelligence Report sources, although some Francophone military barons have insisted this is accidental and not deliberate.

While our chief political man, Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai says it is still too early to predict the result with any certainty, we of the Cameroon Concord News Group are of the opinion that there are some areas of the Southern Cameroons war in which Yaoundé or the Ambazonia Interim Government are currently leading.

Our London Bureau Chief Isong Asu breaks them down here:

One and indivisible Cameroon and the Federal Republic of Ambazonia

From every indication, neither President Paul Biya nor President Sisiku Ayuk Tabe has achieved the stated objectives they set out at the beginning of this campaign.

Immediately after Biya launched the invasion of English speaking Cameroon six years ago, he outlined the objectives and stated that “Cameroon was one and indivisible.”

Biya’s aims were to flush out separatists and to defend the territorial integrity of the Republic of Cameroon.

But the Biya Francophone officials have repeatedly shifted their goalposts, stating at the beginning that they were fighting Anglophone terrorists and changing it to separatists. And because of its ever-changing Southern Cameroons war aims, the Francophone dominated military has now commercialized the war and there are military bases all over Southern Cameroons including in villages that are not even accessible by road.  From Yaoundé’s perspective, we think they’re moving closer to achieving their objectives which is that of militarizing the entire Southern Cameroons.

But the Ambazonia Interim Government is making resistance gains and has managed to put pressure on French Cameroun’s tough defensive lines in Buea and Bamenda. This week, Amba fighters raided Buea the chief city in the South West Region and punished Southern Cameroonians who defied ghost town operation orders.

“We still have a long way to go in this war in Southern Cameroons, but recent actions in Buea and Bamenda are something Yaoundé should be worried about,” Soter Agbaw-Ebai said.

Correspondingly, one of Southern Cameroons main objectives — stated in President Sisiku Ayuk Tabe’s independence speech — is to liberate the entire Southern Cameroons from the union with French Cameroun. But this is appearing to be unattainable following the many divisions deep within the Ambazonia Interim Government. 

“So getting to Buea, I don’t actually think that’s ever going to be possible with the Ambazonia leader and his top aides still in Kondengui” Soter Agbaw-Ebai noted.

“No one in Europe takes those clowns in Maryland seriously so it is very hard to see how My Trip To Buea could be achieved in the near term. Only a change of regime in Yaoundé, which seems very unlikely at the moment can reactivate the journey to Buea” Soter Agbaw-Ebai furthered.

La Republique versus Southern Cameroons

If winning the war in Southern Cameroons was based on morale, Southern Cameroonians would emerge as the victor.

Morale among Amba fighters has been high even after the arrest of the Ambazonian leader Sisiku Ayuk Tabe and his top aides in Abuja, Nigeria.  Stark resistances from Southern Cameroons Restoration Forces have forced President Biya to make some huge adjustments to his military deployments in English speaking Cameroon and cabinet ministers from Anglophone Cameroon including Paul Atanga Nji have been told not to comment publicly on the war.

“I think Cameroon government army soldiers are in a weaker position today because they appear to be panicking when deployed to the rural areas in Southern Cameroons,” Agbaw-Ebai said.

Biya and his Francophone political elites made their war aims very unclear from the very beginning, which has made it extremely difficult for them to win support for the war in both French and English speaking Cameroon.

A rising number of French speaking Cameroonians have started to express serious doubts about the progress that is being made in this senseless conflict in Southern Cameroons.

“Whether that means there will be some kind of threat to the Biya Francophone Beti Ewondo regime, I think is a different question, but clearly there is quite widespread discontent with the way the war in Southern Cameroons has been run,” Soter Agbaw-Ebai pointed out. Morale has also been weakened by corruption among Cameroon’s military leaders.

Cameroon Government Military against Ambazonia Forces

It is difficult to say who is currently winning from a military standpoint because the two forces do not have complete control of the security situation in Southern Cameroons.

And even with the continued deployment of troops from French Cameroun to Southern Cameroons towns and villages, it is still unclear how effective these French speaking army soldiers plan to deal with the present invincible Amba fighters as well as how resilient Ambazonia fighters will be this 2024.

“For me, the two sides are relatively balanced and I believe the war will drag on for many years after Biya” Soter Agbaw-Ebai concluded.

By Isong Asu

London Bureau Chief

Cameroon Concord News Group

Since 2016, the Anglophone separatist movement in Cameroon has become characterised by political violence. Armed separatists have imposed boycotts on education, burned down schools and infrastructure, and abducted or killed civilians accused of collaborating with francophone authorities.

In October 2016, lawyer and teacher unions held a series of protests in the English-speaking Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon. They were protesting the economic, cultural, and linguistic discrimination of the Anglophone minority by the Francophone majority. The protests were peaceful, and took place after a series of formal requests to remove the French language from schools and courts in the Anglophone regions were denied. The government response to these peaceful protests was disproportionate. Over a period of several months, the government used an anti-terror law to imprison and charge Anglophone leaders with the death penalty. In addition, security forces arrested over 100 protestors, killed four, dissolved multiple Anglophone civil society organisations, shutdown internet access, and closed school and medical facilities.

The disproportionate response to the protests – notably through the use of the anti-terrorism law – catalysed the violent “Anglophone crisis” in Cameroon. As a consequence, it eliminated opportunities for peaceful solutions to the conflict. Public opinion in the Anglophone regions hardened, and initially modest requests for administrative reforms, such as the protection of the common-law tradition and English-speaking schools, turned into calls for outright secession and the formation of an independent state called Ambazonia. The resulting conflict between separatists and Cameroonian security forces has killed over six thousand people in Cameroon’s two English-speaking regions and internally displaced over seven hundred thousand.

The origin of the Anglophone crisis is colonial; in 1916, the German colony of Kamerun was distributed to France and Britain as Cameroun and the British Southern Cameroons. In 1961, the two territories reunified as a federated state. The Constitution granted two official languages, education systems, and legal systems to represent the French and British systems of government. In reality, power was consolidated by leaders in the francophone capital, Yaoundé. Anglophone Cameroonians have complained of political and economic marginalisation since.

What has been overlooked is that the adoption of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1373 presented an opportunity to better develop the state arsenal that ensured power and control over resources, which remained in Yaoundé. Adopted in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks, resolution 1373 required all UN member states to implement domestic anti-terror legislation. In reality, adherence to resolution 1373 created the context under which the Cameroonian government could eliminate the Anglophone self-determination movement, by framing its repression as counterterrorism. Since that time, studies have identified a strong correlation in some states between the strong adoption of anti-terror legislation and the desire to inhibit protests and penalise government dissent. The 2014 anti-terror law, promulgated in adherence to resolution 1373, is a highly effective tool for eliminating government dissent for several reasons: First, the anti-terror law “doubles up” on the penal code. This creates a dual legal system that is applied selectively according to who the Cameroonian government considers a threat. For example, after the 2016 protests, leaders of Anglophone civil society organisations were arrested and charged with the death penalty under the anti-terror law for “acts of terrorism, complicity in acts of terrorism, insurrection, rebellion against the state, incitement of civil unrest, propagation of false news.” Under the penal code, the death penalty is only applicable in states of emergency, siege or war. Under the anti-terror law, the death penalty becomes applicable in peacetime. Although the Cameroonian government relies more on the threat of the death penalty than on executions themselves, it is the selective application (at the discretion of government-appointed military judges) that deters opposition.

Second, the anti-terror law is approved by the international community. Because it is pursuant to the requirements of resolution 1373, it becomes difficult to criticise when it is used for illiberal intentions instead of a response to genuine threats of terrorism. The UNSC, for example, has only held one informal discussion on the situation in Cameroon, on 13 May 2019 – it focused on the humanitarian situation, not the use of the anti-terror law. The mutual evaluation reports that evaluate state compliance to resolution 1373 are also telling. In the 2022 report for Cameroon, written by the Task Force on Anti-Money Laundering in Central Africa (GABAC), the Cameroonian government was praised for using the anti-terror law against the Boko Haram militants in the Far North region and against the Anglophone separatists in the Northwest and Southwest regions. In doing so, the report constructs a moral equivalence between the Boko Haram terrorist group and the Anglophone separatists. These two groups not only have dramatically different goals and intentions, but utilise violence differently: for religious ideological nationalism in the former, and political goals of self-determination in the latter. By applauding the Cameroonian government for its use of anti-terror law against both groups, the GABAC implicitly approves of the denial of Anglophone self-determination by the Cameroonian government. As a consequence, Cameroon serves as an example of the spread of international norms for illiberal purposes.

Third, by designating the Anglophone separatists as “terrorists,” the anti-terror law has eliminated democratic avenues for dialogue on the issue of Anglophone self-determination, and successfully consolidated power in the francophone government. When the Cameroonian government used the anti-terror law to arrest the Anglophone leaders, the government signalled the self-determination movement as a threat and depoliticised it. This has been identified as a catalyst for the violent shift in the Anglophone movement and the civil war we see today, because democratic avenues for self-determination and dialogue were removed. Efforts at dialogue and the granting of a “special status” to the English-speaking territories have not minimised separatist violence, but instead allowed the elimination of legitimate political opposition and blurred the lines between self-determination movements and terrorism.

In sum, the use of the anti-terror law has not just eliminated opportunities for Anglophone self-determination, but has resulted in increased political violence: the very problem it was intended to solve.

Culled from Australian Institute of International Relations

Leaders of Cameroon’s main opposition party say they are negotiating with more than 30 opposition leaders to present a single candidate in the next election, should 91-year-old President Paul Biya be incapacitated by ill health.

The opposition reacted after Biya, who has ruled for more than four decades, made no mention of running for re-election in a New Year’s message.

Maurice Kamto, president of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement Party, said scores of civil society and political opposition members have set up a platform called the Political Alliance for Change, also known as the PAC, to press for Biya to relinquish power.

The 91-year-old has been president since 1982 and is the world’s oldest political head of state.

Elections to take place by late 2025

Presidential elections are to take place in Cameroon by October 2025, but civil society groups and opposition parties expected Biya to announce, during his New Year’s message, early elections in 2024. That didn’t happen.

Kamto said he has been chosen by the PAC as a single opposition candidate, should Biya resign or is incapacitated. He said supporters of Biya’s CPDM party, who are fed up with Biya’s autocratic rule, should join the PAC.

“The PAC remains open to all those who believe that the current regime is now Cameroon’s problem and therefore can no longer contribute anything to its recovery,” said Kamto. “Our compatriots in the ruling CPDM party who demonstrate a patriotic reawakening are also welcome in the PAC. Let them come and take their place in the train of national renaissance.”

Kamto said he would revive all state institutions he said Biya has ruined, organize an inclusive national dialogue to end the separatist crisis that has claimed more than 6,000 lives in Cameroon’s western regions, and improve living conditions for those stuck in hunger and poverty.

According to Cameroon’s constitution, if Biya dies, resigns or becomes incapacitated, Marcel Niat Njifenji, the 89-year-old president of the Senate, the upper house of parliament, would take power, and organize elections for a new president within 120 days.

In his message, Biya did not say anything about plans to leave power or not, but blamed the country’s current hardships and armed conflict on high levels of corruption and external factors.

Biya said Cameroon, like other African countries, is dealing with an economic crisis caused by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Biya said when the world expected an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the resurgence last October of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict worsened rifts in the international community and further sunk the world’s economy. Biya said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is leading to price hikes in consumer products and, consequently, the cost of living. He said the conflict is also causing shortages of petroleum products.

Despite the challenges, Biya said Cameroon had a 3.7% economic growth rate in 2023 and inflation was contained at less than 7%.

Cameron’s opposition disputed that, saying the economic growth rate is less than 2% and inflation is running above 20%. They say Biya is responsible for what they say is an economic disaster in Cameroon, a country blessed with a variety of minerals that could be exploited to develop the central African state but were misused by the Biya government.

Biya hard to beat, say experts

The Center for Human Rights and Democracy in Central Africa said that Cameroon’s fragmented opposition, which is made up of about 400 political parties, will find it difficult to beat Biya or any CPDM candidate in an election.

Kamto said all the opposition and civil society groups should, for once, rally behind a single candidate, should early elections be called or when presidential elections come up by October 2025.

Source: VOA

As 2023 fades into history and 2024 looms large on the horizon, the Cameroon Concord News Group deems it necessary to talk to a keen observer of the Cameroonian political and economic landscape who will present the past to our readers and walk them into the New Year with relative ease. In this regard, the Group Chairman, Soter Tarh Agbaw-Ebai, talked to Dr. Joachim Arrey, the Executive Director of the Global Think Tank for Africa, a not-for-profit organization delivering humanitarian help to needy pupils, who is always willing to share his perspectives on key issues facing Cameroon, and he had this to say.

Cameroon Concord News: Good day! It’s been a long time since you shared your perspective on what is happening in Cameroon. Are you still interested in what is happening in your homeland?

Dr. Joachim Arrey: Thank you Mr. Chairman for reaching out to me. It has indeed been a long time since we shared perspectives on key political issues in Cameroon, but this is in no way my disengagement from our country’s political landscape. The older I get the more interest I develop in our country’s politics which leaves much to be desired. It is even a misnomer for us to characterize what is happening in Cameroon as politics. Our political system is more of gossiping and intimidation than the healthy politics we all clamoured for in the early 90s. Our fellow citizens have been put on a forceful diet of stress and starvation and many of them are losing weight against their will. Times are hard and a hungry stomach can easily be intimidated. Also remember that a hungry, ignorant and gullible people are easy prey for those with malicious and wicked political schemes. With our people yielding to the intimidation, our so-called advanced democracy has morphed into a full-blown dictatorship. However, it should be underscored that in politics, nobody intimidates you without your own approval. After more than forty years of humiliating and grinding poverty under a regime that is on a diet of power, our fellow citizens should understand Victor Hugo’s wise saying: “where dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.” Silence may be golden, but in a situation of excruciating financial pain and suffering, silence will not deliver the bread-and-butter Cameroonians have been looking forward to for more than four decades.

Cameroon Concord News: You have always been anti-violence and you hold that real political alternation and change can only be a reality in Cameroon if the electoral code is changed; making sure that the bodies running elections in the country are totally independent of the government and its auxiliaries in the various regions. Do you see this happening anytime soon?

Dr. Joachim Arrey:  Change has always been a work-in-progress and it requires patience and consistency. Anybody who expects a political miracle in Cameroon is surely not living on this planet. The Cameroon electoral system has been designed to serve an individual who has surrounded himself with hungry and desperate people. Senators, parliamentarians and appointed officials in the country are hungry and desperate and they hold that he who has made it possible for them to climb to the pinnacle of politics in Cameroon is their God. These people are going to use whatever means are available to them to keep things as they are. However, it behooves the population and key opposition players to mount pressure on a regime which is on its last leg for things to change. Strangely, the population has resigned itself to fate, hoping that there would be some divine intervention on its behalf. Unfortunately, miracles only happen to those who manufacture them. The people of Cameroon must start acting in a different way. Heaven helps only those who help themselves. For the political opposition, not many of its members can be relied upon. Many of them are still in the grip of poverty and poverty hardly breeds virtue. They make noise in the hope that those in charge of government affairs can see them and offer them something. The tough financial times the country is going through have emasculated the political opposition and this unfortunate situation plays in favour of a government whose cardinal objective is to stay in power for decades or centuries without posting any admirable political and economic results. Engineering and delivering an independent electoral system in Cameroon are huge possibilities but that is not without significant challenges. The electoral system has been configured to always favour the ruling party, and changing that requires huge opposition to the government. Without a clash – intellectual and even political – such change will be a distant tomorrow affair. Those who are making huge gains from the current system will never deliver such change to the people on a platter of gold.

Cameroon Concord News: There are multiple elections scheduled to take place in Cameroon come 2025. Are you therefore saying that the opposition does not stand a chance giving that the current electoral code will be the one that will be used?

Dr. Joachim Arrey:  The country’s political opposition still has a fighting chance. Though the system has been designed to favour the ruling party, there is still some leeway for the political opposition to erode the ruling party’s undeserved political gains. The political opposition must be strategic in its approach. Based on my personal analysis, there are two opposition parties which can cause ripples in that political ocean – MRC led by Prof. Maurice Kamto and the SDF led by Josua Osih. However, creating those ripples will require more than just political grandstanding. Maturity and flexibility on the part of those opposition parties could bring about the change Cameroonians have been hankering after. Instead of competing against each other, these two parties can get into a strategic alliance which may roll back the ruling party in regions such as the North West, the South West and the West regions. In the Grand North, the SDF and MRC must make the most of the frustration of the people of those regions. They need to let Cameroonians know that the country is on the brink of collapse and there is no point following the ruling party over the cliff like lemmings. With the ruling party’s chairman gradually fading away, the internecine fighting playing out within the ruling party should be good news to the political opposition. Though poverty has a nation-wide impact, it is in the northern regions that this impact is very visible. The northern regions have simply been left to their own devices and Boko Hara is bombing life out of the people while the government watches helplessly. There is a different way of doing things and the country’s political opposition must come up with effective and efficient ways of delivering hope to the people of the north. They are desperate and they really want change. The current regime is at its wit’s end and it has run out of gasoline. It has nothing to offer to the people of Cameroon. If anything, it is death. Many Cameroonians are dying helplessly and those who are supposed to protect them and deliver hope are either busy robbing the system blind or are rejoicing that they have held the people to their balls.

Cameroon Concord News: Do you think there will be any real elections in the country’s two English-speaking regions?

Dr. Joachim Arrey: Mr. Group chairman, messaging is key in any initiative which is bound to succeed. Real elections can hold in Southern Cameroons depending on the messages which will be put out there.  While the fight for independence is still playing out in the country’s two English-speaking regions, there is no gainsaying that the fight for an independent Southern Cameroons has lost steam. The struggle has lost its way and it is now in the hands of thugs and criminals who are making the most of the ugly situation. Many Southern Cameroonians now agree that total independence is light years away. Federalism seems to be the attractive golden median and many French-speaking Cameroonians are buying into the federalist narrative. Southern Cameroonian politicians should use the popularity of federalism to convince more of those misguided criminals to come out of the bushes. The federalist rhetoric is peaceful, more meaningful and friendly and this has gained ground even in East Cameroon. If the government of Yaoundé yields to the calls for a federal system in Cameroon, the struggle for independence will die a natural death. The government must learn how to yield some ground if peace must return to Cameroon. Federalism has a way of triggering economic prosperity and policies based on federalism can help unleash our country’s economic potential.  My call to all Southern Cameroonian federalists is that they should form a common platform or political party which I know will make major inroads in the 2025 parliamentary elections given the support federalism is enjoying among Southern Cameroonians. I am therefore urging federalists like Dr Simon Munzu and Barrister Felix Nkongho Agbor Balla to step up to the plate to provide much-needed leadership. Preaching federalism on the streets will not cut it. Federalists must find a way to the country’s parliament to fight from within. When Southern Cameroonians understand that there is a party which wants to take the fight to the parliament on their behalf, they will happily vote for those candidates who they believe will help to incarnate their aspirations and dreams. I know there is the issue of financing, but having spoken with many people out of Cameroon, I know that the Diaspora will put vast resources at the disposal of the federalist political party as many members of the country’s Diaspora have deep faith in federalism. There are many people who want to mobilize resources for such a noble cause.

Cameroon Concord News:  Dr. Joachim Arrey, allow me to take you down the economic lane. Cameroon is in the throes of a biting economic crisis. Do you think the coming year holds any hope for Cameroonians, especially our youths who are desperate and looking outwards for opportunities?

Dr. Joachim Arrey: Each year, we all look forward to the head of state’s speech, hoping that tough and sound economic measures will be announced to douse the economic fire which has reduced Cameroonians to paupers. But every New Year only brings more hardship and disappointment to the people as the government fails woefully to engineer sound economic and financial solutions to the economic crisis. The government has failed to put our children to work and many of them are desperate. Thousands are dying in the Sahara Desert and the Mediterranean Sea while struggling to reach Europe, a place many of them think is an El-dorado. Despite these unfortunate situations, the Yaoundé government has pursued the same policies which have delivered excruciating pain to Cameroonians. Many young Cameroonians are willing to walk to North America given that Cameroon is only offering them hardship and premature death. If the government does not take a long and hard look at its policies, the economic and financial fate of its people will change, unfortunately for the worse. I sincerely do not see any hope on the horizon. Our country’s social architects are deeply asleep at the switch. This is taking a huge toll on the country’s economy. Corruption is rippling out like ragweed, delivering pain and death to the poorest who do not know where to turn to. Police officers just like customs officers are making the most of the chaos which is playing out. The system seems to be collapsing and there is a general feeling that there is nobody in charge and this has triggered a wave of looting and corruption. Though the system is collapsing, I still hope that there is no justification for young Cameroonians to undertake such perilous journeys. The future may be bleak, but there are some green shoots. A silver lining is gradually emerging from the dark clouds the government’s incompetence has cast on the country. Entrepreneurship and skills building have come to deliver some hope to our youths. Many of the country’s tertiary institutions are now offering courses which can enable our young men and women to acquire skills and look forward to a brighter future. The lack of skills relevant to the new global economy has left many young Cameroonians unemployed for years. The government should invest more resources into skills development as a means of alleviating the financial hardship which has been stalking young Cameroonians for decades like a stubborn shadow.

Cameroon Concord News: Thank you, Dr. Joachim Arrey, for your time and pearls of wisdom. Any last word for our readers?

Dr. Joachim Arrey: It is always a pleasure sharing my perspectives with you. For your readers, I would encourage them to continue reading the Cameroon Concord News if they must have a balanced perspective of what is happening in Cameroon. Keep informing Cameroonians! Thank you and do extend my regards to your staff.