U.S. President Joe Biden predicted on Wednesday that Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a move into Ukraine and said Russia would pay dearly for a full-scale invasion, with its businesses possibly losing access to the U.S. dollar.

“My guess is he will move in,” Biden told a news conference. “He has to do something.”

The Kremlin has massed some 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders, a buildup that the West says is preparation for a war to prevent Ukraine from ever joining the NATO Western security alliance. Russia denies planning an invasion.

Biden told reporters he believed Putin would test Western leaders and he said that the response to any Russian invasion would depend on the scale of Moscow’s actions and whether U.S. allies squabbled over how to react.

“Russia will be held accountable if it invades – and it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and what to not do, et cetera,” Biden said.

“But if they actually do what they’re capable of doing … it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine,” Biden added.

Biden and his team have prepared a broad set of sanctions and other economic penalties to impose on Russia in the event of an invasion.

Biden, pressed on what he meant by “minor incursion,” said NATO allies are not united on how to respond depending on what exactly Putin does, saying “there are differences” among them and that he was trying to make sure that “everybody’s on the same page.”

“Big nations can’t bluff, number one. Number two, the idea that we would do anything to split NATO … would be a big mistake. So the question is, if it’s something significantly short of a significant invasion or … just major military forces coming across. For example, it’s one thing to determine if they continue to use cyber efforts; well, we can respond the same way,” he said.

U.S. officials reject limiting NATO expansion as a non-starter, but Biden suggested there could be a deal under which the West might not station nuclear forces in Ukraine.

Visiting Kyiv in a show of support, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Russia could launch a new attack on Ukraine at “very short notice” but Washington would pursue diplomacy as long as it could, even though it was unsure what Moscow really wanted.

Source: REUTERS

Joe Biden 1.0 was a calming, grandfatherly figure, a low-key veteran coming out of retirement in 2020 to heal a nation deeply divided by Donald Trump. A year later, meet Biden 2.0 — the frustrated, angry fighter.

“I’m tired of being quiet,” he said last week in a blistering speech.

Biden was referring specifically to his many fruitless “quiet conversations” behind the scenes with senators in a doomed effort to get his signature legislation on voting rights passed. He could just as well have been summing up the exasperation of his first 12 months in the Oval Office.

And if 2021 saw mild Biden, 2022 looks set to feature a louder, more pugnacious version — a president running out of time, patience and allies to save what remain of his ambitions.

Biden took office January 20, 2021 — at 78, the oldest man to ever become US president — facing incredible challenges.

Covid-19 was out of control, Trump’s supporters had just two weeks earlier tried overturning the presidential election, the economy was comatose, and around the world US allies were reeling in Trump shock of their own.

Biden’s answer to all that — not to mention to the explosive tensions over racism after a series of Black Americans were killed during botched arrests — was to promise competency, old-fashioned decency and unity.

“My whole soul is in this. Bringing America together, uniting our people,” Biden pledged in his inaugural address.

And he even seemed to have a chance of pulling it off.

Democrats narrowly controlled both houses of Congress, Trump had been banished from Twitter, and Covid vaccines were ready.

“There were high expectations that Biden, given his experience and his knowledge of Washington, would be able… to make the trains run on time again,” said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.

“It was all about a return to normalcy.”

Fast forward to the start of Biden’s second year.

Beset by the Delta and Omicron Covid variants, an ever-more divided America, and the likely loss of Congress to the Republicans in November’s midterm elections, Biden’s luck at the age of 79 seems to have run short.

With a majority of just one in the Senate and barely more than that in the House, his huge social spending plan — called Build Back Better — is dead in the water. Ditto the voting rights package he says is needed to save US democracy from Trump’s supporters.

A centrist at heart, Biden has failed to connect with the right or satisfy his own party’s left. As he’s discovering, the center today is hard to find.

Average approval polls on fivethirtyeight.com are at a lowly 42 percent, down from 53. A recent Quinnipiac poll, while an outlier, posted a disturbing 33 percent approval.

Abroad, the picture is similar.

While world allies do like having a United States not governed by Trump back, the country’s humiliating military exit from Afghanistan torpedoed the Biden administration’s aura of professionalism. Certainly Russia seems unconcerned, as it masses troops on Ukraine’s border.

It all adds up to a bitter awakening from the days when the White House buzzed with idealism and talk of Biden emulating his hero Franklin Roosevelt, who led America through the Great Depression in the 1930s.

“Their optimism, combined with the public expectation that all of this would be solved, led them down a path of hubris,” Brown said.

‘Less shouting’ or ‘fight’?

There’s still a scenario where Biden comes out on top: the pandemic burns out, the economy stabilizes, inflation recedes, and with the subsequent feel-good factor Biden gets his party to reverse those legislative defeats just in time for the midterms.

Biden’s aides also point out they got Congress to pass the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, juicing a Covid-ravaged economy and preventing more widespread misery. Remarkably, Democrats also got strong Republican support in passing a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package.

All that with a razor-thin majority in Congress.

The more likely outcome for 2022, though, is continued Democratic infighting, followed by Republicans winning one or both chambers of Congress in November.

At that point, Biden can expect aggressive House investigations, and even possibly impeachment, as Republicans seek to further undermine their opponents’ ability to govern.

And it would become increasingly likely a 2024 White House challenge could come from Trump, even as the former president continues to try to subvert the 2020 election.

So much for Biden’s vow to restore “the soul of America.”

David Ignatius, a Washington Post columnist at the heart of the mainstream establishment, advises Biden to pivot back to “less shouting and more of Biden’s trademark common sense.”

But Biden, his back against the wall, is signaling that he sees things more darkly going into 2022.

“I did not seek this fight,” he said in another dramatic speech this month, this time commemorating the anniversary of the January 6 storming of Congress by Trump supporters.

“But I will not shrink from it either,” Biden said. “I will stand in this breach.”

Source: AFP

Russia ruled out Sunday any concession at talks with the United States on soaring tensions over Ukraine as Moscow seeks a wide-ranging new security arrangement with the West but faces strong pressure to pull back troops.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister Sergei Ryabkov told Russian news agencies ahead of his talks in Geneva the Kremlin was also “disappointed” with signals coming from both Washington and Brussels, where NATO and the European Union are based.

The high-level discussions start a week of diplomacy in which Russia will meet with NATO and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), with the US trying to assure European allies they will not be sidelined.

Russia since late last year has amassed tens of thousands of troops at the Ukrainian border and demanded guarantees that NATO will not expand further eastward.

The Kremlin is insisting NATO must never grant membership to ex-Soviet Ukraine, which is pushing to join.

The United States, to be represented by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, agreed to talks even though it made plain that many of Moscow’s proposals are non-starters.

Originally scheduled to start on Monday, Sherman is now due to have a working dinner with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday evening, said a State Department spokesperson.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, dismissing Moscow’s demands as “gaslighting”, has insisted that talks will yield no progress so long as Russia has a “gun to Ukraine’s head”.

“We’re prepared to respond forcefully to further Russian aggression. But a diplomatic solution is still possible and preferable if Russia chooses it,” Blinken said Friday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met his US counterpart Joe Biden in Geneva in June and agreed on regular “stability” talks between Sherman and Ryabkov, who will again lead the Russian delegation.

‘Massive’ retaliation

In two phone calls to Putin, Biden has warned of severe consequences if Russia invades Ukraine.

Measures under consideration include sanctions on Putin’s inner circle, cancelling Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany or, in the most drastic scenario, severing Russia’s links to the world’s banking system.

A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, warned that Washington would also send more troops to eastern NATO members such as Poland and the Baltics if Russia invaded. 

Europeans have showed solidarity, with EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell visiting the frontline in Ukraine, although some nations are expected to hesitate at the strongest measures.

“Whatever the solution, Europe has to be involved,” EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said.

Russia insists it was deceived after the Cold War and understood that NATO would not expand.

Instead, the US-led alliance accepted most of the former Warsaw Pact nations and the three Baltic nations that were under Soviet rule.

Russia has inflicted intense pressure on neighbouring Ukraine since 2014 after a revolution overthrew a government that had sided with the Kremlin against moving closer to Europe.

Russia seized the Crimean peninsula and backs an insurgency in eastern Ukraine in which more than 13,000 people have died.

At a time that Russia is also intervening to shore up allies facing popular uprisings in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Moscow has insisted it wants concrete progress in talks with Washington.

Putin’s foreign policy adviser Yury Ushakov warned after the call with Biden that the United States would make a “colossal mistake” if it went ahead with sanctions.

‘Gigantic bluff’?

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg, meeting foreign ministers of the alliance on Friday, said there remained real risks of a Russian invasion.

But John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine, described the Russian troop build-up as a “gigantic bluff” by Putin to seek a negotiated agreement.

“They are trying to see if the Biden administration or Europe will blink,” said Herbst, now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

“As long as the Biden administration remains at least as strong as it is now,” he said, “it probably is enough to keep Putin from striking large into Ukraine, but I don’t rule out something smaller.”

Matthew Rojansky, director of the Kennan Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, said the Geneva talks were more about preventing the Ukraine crisis from accelerating than reaching a major deal.

“I think this is about pulling the pendulum back, if we can, towards thicker interaction and more effective diplomacy and communication — not permanent and forever resolution of all problems.”

While also downplaying the possibility of a full-scale invasion, Rojansky said the risks of the Russian build-up were real.

“There is the principle of Chekhov — you put a loaded gun on the stage in Act One and it has to be fired by Act Three.”

Source: AFP

Former US president Donald Trump on Monday enthusiastically backed the reelection of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a hero of the far-right who has been accused of creeping authoritarianism.

In a statement issued along the lines of his frequent blessings to Republican candidates in primary elections at home, Trump wrote that the Hungarian leader has his “Complete support and Endorsement” in elections expected in April.

“He has done a powerful and wonderful job in protecting Hungary, stopping illegal immigration, creating jobs, trade, and should be allowed to continue to do so in the upcoming Election. He is a strong leader and respected by all,” Trump wrote.

Trump welcomed Orban to the White House in 2019, a symbolic acceptance for the prime minister who frequently clashes with the European Union leadership and was snubbed both by President Joe Biden and Trump’s predecessor Barack Obama.

Some Trump administration officials argued at the time that the goal was to keep in the Western fold a leader who had flirted with Russia, and then secretary of state Mike Pompeo made a point of meeting activists who ran afoul of Orban during a visit to Budapest.

But Orban has increasingly been hailed both by Trump’s wing of the Republican Party and European far-right leaders such as France’s Marine Le Pen, especially over his refusal to accept refugees.

Tucker Carlson, a Fox News host close to Trump, broadcast last year from Budapest and was given an interview with Orban as well as a helicopter tour of a border fence.

Orban has also sought to mobilize support on opposition to LGBTQ rights, with a ban on “promotion and display” of homosexuality and a related referendum expected on the same day as the election.

Orban, who has been in charge since 2010, faces a potentially serious challenge from Peter Marki-Zay, who describes himself as a traditional Catholic conservative and has vowed to scrap homophobic laws if elected.

Source: AFP

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un capped off his 10th year in power with a speech that made more mention of tractor factories and school uniforms than nuclear weapons or the United States, according to summaries by state media on Saturday.

North Korea’s main goals for 2022 will be jump starting economic development and improving people’s lives as it faces a “great life-and-death struggle,” Kim said in a speech on Friday at the end of the 4th Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), which began on Monday.

The meetings coincided with the 10-year anniversary of Kim effectively assuming leadership of the country after the death of his father in 2011.

Kim has used previous speeches around the New Year to make major policy announcements, including launching significant diplomatic engagements with South Korea and the United States.

But summaries of his speech published in North Korean state media made no specific mention of the United States, with only a passing reference to unspecified discussions of inter-Korean relations and “external affairs.”

The domestic focus of the speech underscored the economic problems Kim faces at home, where self-imposed anti-pandemic border lockdowns have left North Korea more isolated than ever before, with international aid organisations warning of possible food shortages and a humanitarian crisis.

“The main task facing our Party and people next year is to provide a sure guarantee for the implementation of the five-year plan and bring about a remarkable change in the state development and the people’s standard of living,” Kim was quoted as saying.

Kim spent the majority of his speech detailing domestic issues from an ambitious plan for rural development to people’s diets, school uniforms and the need to crack down on “non-socialist practices.”

The big focus on rural development is likely a populist strategy, said Chad O’Carroll, founder of NK News, a Seoul-based website that tracks North Korea.

“Overall, Kim might be aware that revealing sophisticated military development plans while people are suffering food shortages and harsh conditions outside of Pyongyang might not be such a good idea this year,” he wrote on Twitter.

Saturday’s state media report cited the development of “one ultra-modern weapon system after another” as a major achievement of the past year and said Kim called for bolstering the national defence to face an unstable international situation.

A tractor factory he discussed in the speech was likely used to build launch vehicles for missiles, foreign analysts have said, and North Korea is believed to have expanded its arsenal despite the lockdowns.

The reports of Kim’s speech did not mention the United States’ call for denuclearisation talks, or South Korea’s push for a declaration to formally end the 1950-1953 Korean War as a way to restart those negotiations.

North Korea has previously said it is open to diplomacy, but that the American overtures appear hollow while “hostile acts” such as military drills and sanctions continue.

Source: REUTERS

US lawmakers voted Friday to elevate President Joe Biden’s giant social welfare bill to the Senate, in a major step forward for his vision to create a more equitable society — the centerpiece of his domestic agenda.

Build Back Better — Biden’s potentially legacy-defining package of education, health care, childcare and climate reforms — was green-lit by the House of Representatives four days after he signed into law the first part of his economic blueprint, a sweeping upgrade of the country’s crumbling infrastructure.

The $1.8 trillion measure faces a bumpier ride in the upper chamber Senate, with the Democrats’ deficit hawks jittery over spiraling inflation, before it gets a final rubber stamp in the House, likely in January.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi had hoped for a vote late Thursday but Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy scuppered that plan by breaking her record for the longest House floor speech, clocking in at more than eight-and-a-half hours.

The breakthrough vote in the House came as Biden was set to transfer power to Vice President Kamala Harris while he underwent a colonoscopy under anesthesia as part of a regular health check.

The White House released a statement from the president as he was out of action, describing the vote as “another giant step forward in carrying out my economic plan to create jobs, reduce costs, make our country more competitive and give working people and the middle class a fighting chance.”

Dealbreaker

The legislation would provide millions of jobs, according to the White House, although Republicans have characterized it as an example of wildly out-of-control Democratic spending.

It will likely be trimmed further in any case in the upper chamber, where Democrats have the narrowest of majorities and moderates are voicing concerns over Biden’s spending plans.

Annual inflation jumped to 6.2 percent last month, giving Republicans another cudgel to bash Biden with as they bid to retake both chambers of Congress in next year’s midterm elections. 

House Democrats would have lost the party-line vote had there been more than three defectors.

In the end only one Democrat — from a competitive district in Maine — joined the Republicans in rejecting the bill, boosting the majority party’s hopes that members in both chambers can overcome months of infighting to get the package signed into law.

Republicans seized on an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office saying the bill would boost the deficit by $367 billion over 10 years.

But White House officials had already been warning for days that the estimate would not take into account savings that could be made through tougher taxation enforcement.

‘Craptacular mess’

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that Build Back Better was “more than fully paid for,” and would help reduce the deficit in the long run “by asking large corporations and the country’s top earners to pay their fair share.”

The bill is likely to be taken up by the upper chamber in late December or possibly January, with more urgent priorities such as avoiding a debt default and a government shutdown expected to take up much of the holiday period.

Pelosi downplayed the potential for senators making major changes, telling reporters after the vote that 90 percent of the text had been agreed among Democrats in both chambers of Congress and the White House.

“There were some differences at the end, and we’ll deal with that as we go forward,” she said.

The Senate has been locked in a 50-50 split for one of the longest periods in its history, and, with no votes to spare, every Democrat effectively has a veto on any bill as long as Republicans stick together.

Senate progressives are pushing for a national paid family leave program and a bigger expansion of health care benefits, but the latest inflation data could torpedo those efforts.

“We will act as quickly as possible to get this bill to President Biden’s desk and deliver help for middle-class families,” the upper chamber’s leader Chuck Schumer said.

But Nebraska’s Ben Sasse led a chorus of opprobrium from Senate Republicans over the legislation, labeling it a “craptacular mess” that will lead to “a million more annual IRS (tax) audits.”

Source: AFP

President Joe Biden will meet at the White House next week with the leaders of Canada and Mexico, his office said Wednesday, as the US administration seeks to shore up alliances that came under strain under Donald Trump.

At the November 18 meeting, Biden, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will discuss efforts to fight the pandemic, as well as climate change and immigration, the White House said.

Biden is relaunching a gathering known as the North American Leaders’ Summit, the last of which was held in 2016 before being abandoned by Trump.

“During the summit, the United States, Mexico, and Canada will reaffirm their strong ties and integration while also charting a new path for collaboration,” the statement said.

It said the talks will also address “a regional vision for migration,” a touchy issue for the US and Mexico, which regularly sees thousands of mainly Central American migrants arrive at its southern border hoping to reach the United States as they flee poverty and violence at home.

“With respect for each other’s sovereignty and in a true spirit of partnership, we affirm our unwavering vision that North America is the most competitive and dynamic region in the world,” the White House said.

In addition to the three-way talks, Biden will also participate in bilateral meetings with Trudeau and Lopez Obrador.

The US statement noted that Biden held his first foreign bilateral meetings as president with the leaders of Canada and Mexico.

“Since day one of the Biden-Harris administration, the United States has reaffirmed the importance of our regional partnerships to realize a more equal, prosperous, greener, democratic future for all our hemisphere’s citizens,” said Biden’s senior director for western hemisphere affairs, Juan Gonzalez.

The change of tone from the Trump era is stark.

Trump renegotiated a major North American trade deal with the two US neighbors but he also triggered conflicts with them.

His project to build a wall along the southern US border weighed on ties with Mexico.

He also had tense relations with Trudeau, calling him “dishonest” and “weak” at the height of a spat over US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, the European Union and Mexico.

Source: AFP

President Joe Biden returned from Europe Wednesday with a wake-up call for feuding Democrats holding up his sweeping domestic reforms in Congress — after a humiliating state election defeat that many blamed on inertia and infighting among the party’s lawmakers.

“I do know that people want us to get things done,” he told reporters asking for his takeaway on longtime favourite Terry McAuliffe’s loss to a Republican newcomer in Tuesday’s Virginia governor’s election.

“And that’s why I’m continuing to push very hard for the Democratic Party to move along and pass my infrastructure bill and my Build Back Better bill.”

Amid nosediving approval ratings and frustration over his stalled economic agenda, Biden came home to a Republican red wave that swept over the eastern United States Tuesday, from Virginia Beach to Long Island and beyond.

Republicans pulled off a decisive upset in the gubernatorial election in otherwise blue-trending Virginia, with untested multimillionaire Glenn Youngkin beating McAuliffe, while the Democratic governor of New Jersey won re-election but only barely.

There were also Republican gains across New York City and a conservative backlash to a liberal proposal in Minneapolis — the city where George Floyd was murdered by police — to dismantle the local force.

Hours before the polls closed, Biden had voiced confidence about the votes in Virginia and New Jersey, rejecting suggestions in any case that they were a verdict on his presidency.

Asked several times on Wednesday if he took responsibility for the bloodletting in local elections, he avoided giving a direct answer.

But he told reporters at the White House: “People are upset and uncertain about a lot of things — from Covid to school, to jobs to a whole range of things and the cost of a gallon of gasoline.

“And so if I’m able to sign into law my Build Back Better initiative, I’m in a position where you’re going to see a lot of those things ameliorated quickly and swiftly. So that has to be done.”  

‘Clear message’

Biden, who campaigned as a centrist but has governed to the left, is facing a thorny path to the November 2022 midterm elections as he plays peacemaker between the increasingly polarised Democratic factions he has failed to bring together.

The president offered bold action on the climate in Glasgow at the weekend, but the lack of tangible progress in Washington on his environmental goals reverberated through the COP26 summit, underscoring the damage being inflicted on his agenda by months of infighting.

Amid record-shattering turnout, Youngkin squashed McAuliffe’s comeback by leveraging parents’ fears over a public school curriculum they consider too liberal and growing frustration with Biden, who swept the state by 10 points only a year ago.

Democrats have privately been warning for weeks that a McAuliffe loss could spook moderates already skittish about the expansive scale of Biden’s two-pronged, $3 trillion plan to transform infrastructure and enlarge the social safety net.

While Biden’s news conference may spur rank-and-file lawmakers to deal more urgently with considering his priorities, it is far from clear they are united on the lessons they should be taking from Tuesday’s setbacks.

West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, a centrist holdout on much of Biden’s agenda, led calls Wednesday for a handbrake on spending negotiations so that lawmakers can “take time and do it right.”

But progressives reached the opposite conclusion, arguing that Virginia had been lost by middle-of-the-road Democrats blocking provisions for child care, prescription drug reform and paid family leave from Biden’s Build Back Better social welfare package.

“Terry McAuliffe has been saying for weeks that his fate was tied to the progress of negotiations here on Capitol Hill,” Senate majority whip Dick Durbin told reporters, echoing Biden.

“And there ought to be a clear message to my party and all those who support it to get the job done.”

In reality, Congress had nothing to do with perhaps the most damaging gaffe of McAuliffe’s campaign, when he said at a September 29 debate with Youngkin: “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.”

The remark became a rallying cry for conservatives bitter over mask mandates in schools and misled by the false Republican notion that “critical race theory” was being taught to their children.

Peter Loge, a public affairs professor at George Washington University, offered a crumb of consolation to those fearing the death of the party, pointing out that the Virginia governor’s election almost always serves as voters’ first opportunity to cudgel the party of the new president.

“What I do think the White House has to do now is go to Democrats in Congress and other Democrats around the country and say, look, here are the details of the votes,” Loge said.

“Here’s what voters were telling us… Let’s focus on what matters — and that’s families, that’s schools, that’s jobs, that’s inflation.”

Source: AFP

President Joe Biden promised to show the world that democracies can work to meet the challenges of the 21st century. As he prepares to push that message at a pair of global summits, his case could hinge on what’s happening in Washington, where he was struggling to finalize a major domestic legislative package.

After a fitful day of talks over the fate of twin infrastructure and social spending bills that he cast as a choice between “leading the world, or letting the world pass us by,” Biden landed in Rome aboard Air Force One in the dark early Friday with the answer still undetermined.

Headed first to a Group of 20 summit in Rome and then to Glasgow, Scotland, for a UN climate summit, Biden will be pressed to deliver concrete ideas for stopping a global pandemic, boosting economic growth and halting the acceleration of climate change. Those stakes might seem a bit high for a pair of two-day gatherings attended by the global elite and their entourages. But it’s written right into the slogan for the meeting in Rome: “People, Planet, Prosperity.”

It was a reflection of his promise to align US diplomacy with the interests of the middle class. This has tied any success abroad to his efforts to get Congress to advance his environmental, tax, infrastructure and social policies. It could be harder to get the world to commit to his stated goals if Americans refuse to fully embrace them, one of the risks of Biden’s choice to knit together his domestic and foreign policies.

Before leaving Washington, Biden pitched House Democrats to get behind a scaled-back $1.75 trillion “framework” that he believes could pass the 50-50 Senate. It remained to be seen whether lawmakers would embrace the package or send Biden back to the negotiating table, as some key priorities like paid family leave and steps to lower prescription drug costs were excised from the bill, which will be paid for with hiked taxes on the nation’s wealthiest and corporations.

“The rest of the world wonders whether we can function,” Biden told the lawmakers, according to a source familiar with his remarks.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi invoked the trip as she tried to rally Democratic votes around the separate $1 trillion infrastructure package, attempting, unsuccessfully, to build support for a vote on Thursday before Biden arrived in Rome.

“When the president gets off that plane we want him to have a vote of confidence from this Congress,” she said. “In order for us to have success, we must succeed today.”

While Biden was in the air, Pelosi, facing opposition from progressives who also want assurances that the scaled-back social spending plan will pass, pulled the plug on a Thursday vote and instead set out to pass yet another stop-gap funding measure for a range of transportation initiatives.

Biden’s trip abroad comes as he faces an increasingly pessimistic nation at home, and souring views of his handling of the nation’s economy. According to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, just 41% of Americans now approve of Biden’s economic stewardship, down from 49% in August and a sharp reversal since March, when 60% approved.

Americans are split on Biden overall, with 48% approving and 51% disapproving of his handling of his job as president. Only about a third of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction, also a significant decline since earlier this year when about half said so.

Domestic politics, global implications

One consequence of Biden’s decision to so closely link up his domestic and foreign policies is that both are now at the mercy of West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, whose votes are essential in a Senate evenly split between Democrats and Republicans. Biden aides have hoped for, among other things, a more than $500 billion investment to combat climate change in the United States, which would help efforts to persuade China and other nations to make investments of their own in renewable energy.

“It’d be very, very positive to get it done before the trip,” Biden said Monday.

But as talks slogged on, administration officials began to play down the significance of Biden’s spending plan still hovering in limbo. White House press secretary Jen Psaki stressed that the president can still work the phones from Rome, the city that gave birth to the word “Senate.” She suggested that foreign leaders can see beyond ongoing backroom talks with US lawmakers in order to judge Biden’s commitment.

“They don’t look at it through the prism of whether there is a vote in one body of the legislative body before he gets on an airplane,” Psaki said.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan, though, has framed the bills as vital to the nation’s security. “Making these investments in American strength will be very important to our national security going forward,” he said.

Reaching for a deal that has had a perilous journey thus far, the president is beginning his trip abroad with an expert in the power of prayer. Biden, the nation’s second Catholic president, will meet Friday with Pope Francis at the Vatican in a visit that is part personal for the intensely religious commander in chief and part policy, particularly around matters of climate and confronting autocracies.

Delicate diplomacy

Biden will also pay a visit to the Italian hosts of the G-20 summit before he sits down with French President Emmanuel Macron. Biden is trying to close a rift with France created when the US and UK agreed to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia, supplanting a French contract in the process.

Biden is also expected to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who backed down just days ago from threats to expel Western diplomats and whose purchase of Russian surface-to-air missiles has upended his country’s participation in the F-35 fighter program.

In those and other meetings, Biden is expected to address the Iranian nuclear threat, and Iran’s announcement that it could return to talks next month in Vienna.

He is also set to continue to press wealthier US allies to step up their commitments to share Covid-19 vaccines with lower- and middle-income countries. Some nations have been slow to deliver on ambitious pledges and others have largely stayed on the sidelines. Biden will argue that the pandemic can’t be ended until vaccines are available widely, and that democracies can’t let Chinese and Russian vaccine diplomacy — which often comes with strings attached — take root globally.

Biden will have little interaction with those two most significant of American rivals, as China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin participate in the summits only virtually because of the pandemic threat. Those two leaders are critical for broader climate issues at a time of rising energy prices. China has committed to increase coal mining ahead of winter, while Russia’s natural gas reserves give it a degree of political power over parts of Europe.

Beyond the policies and personalities that will be prominent in Biden’s trip, the president will be trying to make the case for democracy itself, arguing that essential aspects — fair elections and representative government — are superior to autocracies in good times and bad.

Heading to Scotland on Sunday night for the climate summit, Biden will lead a large US delegation that he hopes will showcase America’s plans to address the threat of climate change. It’s a sharp reversal from former President Donald Trump, who withdrew the US from the Paris climate accord.

Biden is set to deliver a significant address on climate change and attempt to reclaim the mantle of American leadership. One of the key objections to shifting away from oil and other fossil fuels has been the costs, but the president has been making the claim that nature is already exacting a price with extreme weather from climate change.

Source: FRANCE 24 with AP

The United States and the Taliban will hold their first in-person talks since the US withdrawal from Afghanistan starting Saturday, the State Department said.

The US delegation will meet Saturday and Sunday in the Qatari capital Doha with senior Taliban representatives, a State Department spokesperson said.

The United States has remained in contact with the Taliban since the longtime foes seized Kabul in August as US troops pulled out but the meeting will be the first that is face to face.

“We will press the Taliban to respect the rights of all Afghans, including women and girls, and to form an inclusive government with broad support,” the spokesperson said Friday.

“As Afghanistan faces the prospect of a severe economic contraction and possible humanitarian crisis, we will also press the Taliban to allow humanitarian agencies free access to areas of need,” he said.

The State Department stressed that the meeting did not indicate that the United States was recognizing Taliban rule in Afghanistan.

“We remain clear that any legitimacy must be earned through the Taliban’s own actions,” the spokesperson said.

Letting US citizens leave

The US team will also press President Joe Biden’s key priority of letting US citizens and Afghan allies during the 20-year military operation leave the country.

The United States says that the Taliban have largely cooperated on letting out US citizens. Around 100 remain, predominantly US citizens with roots in Afghanistan who are undecided on whether to leave, according to US officials.

But the United States acknowledges that it was not able to get out most Afghan allies who wanted to leave during a hasty airlift that pulled tens of thousands of people out of Kabul before the withdrawal.

The spokesperson did not specify who would represent the two sides. Senior US officials including Central Command chief General Frank McKenzie met with the Taliban in Kabul in August as US troops took over the airport for the airlift.

(AFP)