5, January 2020
Iraq could ‘pay price’ for US strike on Iran commander 0
The killings of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani and a top Iraqi paramilitary chief in a US strike on Baghdad Friday threaten to drag Iraq into the abyss of regional conflict, analysts warned.
The US strike on Baghdad international airport targeted a convoy carrying Soleimani and his top Baghdad-based adviser Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s powerful Hashed al-Shaabi force.
The raid has confirmed the worst fears of many Iraqis: that their homeland will become the main battlefield in a looming conflict between Iran and the United States.
“Iran’s strongest cards are in Iraq, and I think that Iraq will pay the price for this,” said Fanar Haddad of Singapore University’s Middle East Institute.
Tensions between the United States and Iran have been rising for months, as the Washington accused Tehran-backed factions of firing rockets on their troops across Iraq and on their embassy in Baghdad.
But they have soared over the past week.
On December 27, a rocket attack killed a US contractor working in northern Iraq, prompting retaliatory US strikes that killed 25 fighters from Kataeb Hezbollah, a hardline Hashed faction.
Angry Hashed supporters laid siege to the US embassy as Washington announced hundreds of new US troops were en route to the region.
– Path to war? –
But Washington delivered its most decisive blow yet early Friday when a volley of strikes hit near Baghdad international airport, leaving two cars torched on the access highway.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed Soleimani was killed in the strike while the Hashed announced Muhandis’s death.
With the two dead, the Quds Force — the foreign operations arm of Iran’s Guards Corps — has been left decapitated and the Hashed lost its de facto chief, too.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed “severe revenge” for the raid and its top security council was meeting to discuss options.
Analysts said the outbreak of a wider conflict was looking increasingly likely.
“If Iran does need to respond and make a performance out of this, the fear is that there will be something more than just loading rockets at embassies,” said Haddad.
“It could set Iraq along the path of internal conflict and that’s something Iran can very easily instigate,” he said.
The nature of the strike is unpredecented because of the seniority of those targeted — making its repercussions hard to picture, said Ramzy Mardini, a researcher at the US Institute of Peace.
“The problem with judging what happens next is a problem of imagination. Nobody thought this was in the realm of possibility,” he told AFP.
“It’s likely that all actors on all sides will be playing things by ear in the short term, which is a recipe for miscalculation,” said Mardini.
– ‘Heads will roll’ –
Friday’s strike had shown that Iran could no longer use its allies in Iraq to carry out attacks against US interests “without risking an American conventional retaliation on Iran,” Mardini told AFP.
“Plausible deniability has gone out the window.”
The US had expressed increasing frustration with the escalating rocket attacks on its 5,200 troops in Iraq and on its embassy in Baghdad over the past two months.
US forces led the 2003 invasion against then-dictator Saddam Hussein and Washington has worked closely with Iraqi officials and commanders since then.
But its influence has waned compared with that of Iran, which carefully crafted personal ties with Iraqi politicians and armed factions, even during Saddam’s reign.
Soleimani was the prime example, sweeping into Baghdad regularly to hold meeting with top Iraqi officials during times of turmoil.
Ranj Alaaldin, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Doha, said that would leave Iran with a range of questions for its Iraqi partners.
“How did the US know of Soleimani’s arrival in Baghdad? Who leaked the intel?” Alaaldin tweeted.
“Watch the Iraqi political space. Heads will roll.”
Source: AFP
9, January 2020
Persian Gulf: Trump says Iran ‘standing down’ after missile attack 0
US President Donald Trump on Wednesday said Iran appeared to be “standing down” after missile strikes against Iraqi bases that caused no US casualties, indicating there would be no immediate new military response.
In a televised address to the nation from the White House, Trump emphasized that there were “no Americans harmed” in the salvo of missiles aimed at two bases.
While he promised to immediately impose “punishing” new economic sanctions against Iran, Trump welcomed signs that Iran “appears to be standing down” in the tit-for-tat confrontation, signalling that the United States did not plan a new military riposte.
Trump closed his remarks by addressing Iranians directly, saying that he was “ready to embrace peace with all who seek it”.
However, the US president, facing both an impeachment trial in Congress and a tough re-election in November, touted his decision to order the killing of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani last Friday – the operation that prompted Tehran’s missile strike.
Soleimani, a national hero in Iran, was “the world’s top terrorist” and “should have been terminated long ago”, Trump said.
Although Trump ended his remarks with the call for peace, he opened by stating bluntly that he would never allow Iran to procure a nuclear weapon.
He then urged European allies and other world powers to follow America’s lead in abandoning a teetering international agreement on managing the country’s nuclear ambitions, and negotiate a new one instead.
Revenge ‘another issue’
Iran’s overnight missile strikes targeted the sprawling Ain al-Asad airbase in western Iraq and a base in Arbil, both housing American and other foreign troops deployed in a US-led coalition fighting the remnants of the Islamic State (IS) group.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called the missiles a “slap in the face” for the United States and indicated that more was to come.
“An important incident has happened. The question of revenge is another issue,” Khamenei said in a speech broadcast live on state television.
The office of Iraq’s premier said it had received advance warning from Iran that a missile attack on US forces was imminent.
“Iraq rejects any violation of its sovereignty and attacks on its territory,” the statement said, without specifically condemning the missile strikes.
Iraqi President Barham Saleh denounced the missile attack, warning against attempts to turn Iraq into a “battlefield for warring sides”.
‘Proportionate measures’
The brazenness of the strike was highly unusual for Iran, which has tended to disguise attacks on US interests or troops through its use of proxy Shiite forces.
“Ballistic missiles openly launched from Iran onto American targets is a new phase,” said Phillip Smyth, an expert on Shiite militias.
But as the dust settled, it appeared that Iran’s strike – coming soon after the burial of Soleimani at a funeral in front of vast crowds – might have been more symbolic than anything.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps warned any US counter-attack would be met with an even “more crushing response” and threatened to strike Israel and America’s “allied governments”.
However, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif seemed to indicate that Iran was satisfied for now.
“Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self-defence,” Zarif said on Twitter.
Sadr calls for restraint
The strikes sparked worldwide condemnation, including from NATO, Germany, France and the UK.
France said its forces deployed in Iraq sustained no casualties while the UK was concerned about “reports” of victims as British troops are stationed there. The Norwegian military said coalition troops were warned of the attack in advance through intelligence channels.
The apparent de-escalation did not remove pressure from approximately 5,200 US troops stationed across Iraq, where Iran has close links to powerful armed Shiite militias.
And Iranian allies in the country said they still intend to take revenge for Friday’s US attack in which top Iraqi paramilitary commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed alongside Soleimani.
Paramilitary chief Qais al-Khazali – blacklisted as a “terrorist” by the US – said his side’s response to the United States ” will be no less than the size of the Iranian response.”
Influential Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said the crisis Iraq was experiencing was “over” following de-escalation rhetoric from both Iran and the US, calling on militia groups not to carry out attacks.
“I call on the Iraqi factions to be deliberate, patient, and not to start military actions, and to shut down the extremist voices of some rogue elements until all political, parliamentary and international methods have been exhausted,” he said.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP)