Senate Republicans have blocked a move to pass an aid bill for Ukraine after failing to secure border compromises they sought in exchange.

The $110bn (£87.3bn) package included $61bn for Ukraine, as well as funds for Israel and aid for Gaza.

Republicans are insisting that any aid to Ukraine be tied to sweeping US immigration and asylum reforms.

The White House has warned that US funds for Ukraine could soon run out.

Senators voted 51 to 49 against advancing the bill, with 60 votes needed. The vote throws uncertainty into the future of aid for Ukraine and sends lawmakers back to the negotiating table with just days to go until Congress has scheduled winter break.

Every single Republican Senator voted against the measure, along with independent Senator Bernie Sanders, who had earlier in the day expressed reservations that the legislation included billions in military aid for Israel.

“I do not believe we should be appropriating over $10 billion for the right-wing extremist Netanyahu government to continue its current military approach,” Mr Sanders said, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing campaign in the Gaza strip, which has so far killed thousands of civilians.

Mr Sanders, who is a long-time critic of Mr Netanyahu, added: “What the Netanyahu government is doing is immoral, it is in violation of international law, and the United States should not be complicit in those actions.”

Earlier on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden said he was “willing to make significant compromises on the border” in order to get the aid bill passed.

“This cannot wait,” he said, adding that “Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he could hope for”.

Also on Wednesday, the Biden administration announced $175m in new security assistance for Ukraine from the supply of funding that has already been approved. The package includes ammunition, including missiles and artillery shells, as well as “equipment to protect critical national infrastructure”, the US Department of Defense said in a news release.

Concerns over the future of the $110bn package grew on Tuesday after a classified briefing for lawmakers aimed at shoring up support for new funds broke down spectacularly.

Senators shouted at each other over border security and least a dozen Republicans walked out.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also cancelled a virtual briefing with lawmakers over a “last-minute matter”, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Tuesday, without providing further detail.

Mood dims in Kyiv as US stand-off imperils war effort

The package already includes provisions for border security, but Republican demands for additional changes to asylum rules has complicated negotiations with Democrats. While the party’s members are overwhelmingly in favour of aid to Ukraine, some have sought to use the issue as a way address mounting domestic concerns over the US southern border.

Ahead of the failed vote to bring the package to the floor, Mr Schumer delivered an emotional plea to his colleagues on the Senate floor, telling them that the vote was an important “moment in history” and that they should “rush to the defence of democracy” in Ukraine.

“You can be sure that Vladimir Putin is watching closely,” he said.

Source: BBC

Republicans on Tuesday made their fourth pick in just two weeks to replace the ousted speaker of the US House of Representatives, underlining the chaos engulfing the fragmented party after three previous nominees failed to win the gavel.

Louisiana’s Mike Johnson won an internal party vote just hours after previous nominee, Majority Whip Tom Emmer, buckled under a backlash led by former president Donald Trump and announced his withdrawal.

Congress has been at a standstill and unable to address multiple global crises, as well as the fast-approaching threat of a government shutdown, since McCarthy’s historic dismissal in a far-right rebellion on October 3.

“The dysfunction in the Republican Party right now seems to be saying we want to lose,” exasperated Kentucky Republican Andy Barr told CNN.

“That is crazy to me. We were elected as a majority to govern, and we are not doing that right now.”

Johnson — the vice chairman of the conference but a relative novice in politics — lost out to Emmer earlier in the day but quickly threw his hat back in the ring after his leadership colleague bowed out.

But all the indications are that Johnson will likely fall foul of the same internal divisions that have left the party incapable of uniting around any leader.

Tuesday’s disarray marked two weeks since the party’s first nominee to replace McCarthy, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, withdrew as it became clear he was nowhere near the 217 votes needed to be elected.

Hard-line Trump ally Jim Jordan, the next nominee, flopped three times on the House floor as successively larger tallies of Republican opponents joined the Democrats to reject him.   

Growing desperation

Adding to the sense of growing desperation in Republican ranks, McCarthy was pitching what looked like a far-fetched plan ahead of the latest contest that would see him reinstalled as speaker with Jordan as his assistant.

If Johnson were to succeed where his colleagues have failed, he would be the least experienced speaker in more than a century, having never chaired a committee or held a top leadership role.

And he could find himself presiding over a government shutdown in three weeks unless he can cut a 2024 budget deal with much more seasoned negotiators in the White House that is acceptable to his party.

He would also be expected to lead the deeply fractured conference through upcoming fights over funding for Ukraine and Israel in their conflicts with Russia and Hamas.

Johnson moved up to the House from state-level politics in 2017.

He is best known as a driving force among more than 100 Republicans who signed on to a legal brief supporting a lawsuit seeking to overturn the 2020 election results in four swing states won by Biden.

He can afford to lose just four Republicans and still claim the speakership if every Democrat votes against him, although the House adjourned until Wednesday with no election scheduled.

Only 128 of Johnson’s colleagues voted for him in the final round of balloting, according to US media — with 29 preferring his rival, Florida lawmaker Byron Donalds, and another 44 casting their votes for someone else entirely.

Like Johnson, Emmer had baselessly sown doubt over the validity of Biden’s 2020 election win over Trump, but supporters of the former president were angered by the majority whip voting to certify the result.

The writing was on the wall when Trump took to his Truth social website to brand Emmer a “globalist RINO” — short for “Republican in name only.”

Trump took credit for Emmer’s downfall as he spoke to reporters at his New York civil fraud trial.

“I assume it had a big impact,” he said of his statement.

Source: AFP

Israel would let aid enter Gaza via Egypt, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced Wednesday, saying only “food, water and medicine” would be allowed into the blockaded Palestinian enclave.

Humanitarian supplies will not be able to enter the enclave from the Israeli side of the border.

“In light of (US) President (Joe) Biden’s demand, Israel would not foil the supply of humanitarian aid via Egypt,” the prime minister’s office said, announcing a cabinet decision.

The statement noted that aid to civilians in the southern Gaza Strip would be allowed “so long as these supplies do not reach Hamas”, which rules Gaza.

Source: France 24

Bill Richardson, a two-term Democratic governor of New Mexico and an American ambassador to the United Nations who also worked for years to secure the release of Americans detained by foreign adversaries, has died. He was 75.

The Richardson Center for Global Engagement, which he founded and led, said in a statement Saturday that he died in his sleep at his home in Chatham, Massachusetts.

“He lived his entire life in the service of others — including both his time in government and his subsequent career helping to free people held hostage or wrongfully detained abroad,” said Mickey Bergman, the center’s vice president. “There was no person that Gov. Richardson would not speak with if it held the promise of returning a person to freedom. The world has lost a champion for those held unjustly abroad and I have lost a mentor and a dear friend.”

Before his election in 2002 as governor, Richardson was the U.S. envoy to the United Nations and energy secretary under President Bill Clinton and served 14 years as a congressman representing northern New Mexico.

But he also forged an identity as an unofficial diplomatic troubleshooter. He traveled the globe negotiating the release of hostages and American servicemen from North Korea, Iraq, Cuba and Sudan and bargained with a who’s who of America’s adversaries, including Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. It was a role that Richardson relished, once describing himself as “the informal undersecretary for thugs.”

“I plead guilty to photo-ops and getting human beings rescued and improving the lives of human beings,” he once told reporters.

He helped secure the 2021 release of American journalist Danny Fenster from a Myanmar prison and this year negotiated the freedom of Taylor Dudley, who crossed the border from Poland into Russia. He flew to Moscow for a meeting with Russian government officials in the months before the release last year of Marine veteran Trevor Reed in a prisoner swap and also worked on the cases of Brittney Griner, the WNBA star freed by Moscow last year, and Michael White, a Navy veteran freed by Iran in 2020.

Armed with a golden resume and wealth of experience in foreign and domestic affairs, Richardson ran for the 2008 Democratic nomination for president in hopes of becoming the nation’s first Hispanic president. He dropped out of the race after fourth place finishes in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary.

‘Giant in public service’

Richardson was the nation’s only Hispanic governor during his two terms. He described being governor as “the best job I ever had.”

“It’s the most fun. You can get the most done. You set the agenda,” Richardson said.

As governor, Richardson signed legislation in 2009 that repealed the death penalty. He called it the “most difficult decision in my political life” because he previously had supported capital punishment.

Other accomplishments as governor included $50,000-a-year minimum salaries for the most qualified teachers in New Mexico, an increase in the state minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.50 an hour, pre-kindergarten programs for 4-year-olds, renewable energy requirements for utilities and financing for large infrastructure projects, including a commercial spaceport in southern New Mexico and a $400 million commuter rail system.

U.S. Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M., called Richardson a “giant in public service and government.”

“In his post-government career, he was trusted to handle some of the most sensitive diplomatic crises, and he did so with great success. Here in New Mexico, we will always remember him as our governor. He never stopped fighting for the state he called home,” Lujan said in a statement.

Some of his most prominent global work began in December 1994, when he was visiting North Korean nuclear sites and word came that an American helicopter pilot had been downed and his co-pilot killed.

The Clinton White House enlisted Richardson’s help and, after days of tough negotiations, the then-congressman accompanied the remains of Chief Warrant Officer David Hilemon while paving the way for Chief Warrant Officer Bobby Hall to return home.

The following year, and after a personal appeal from Richardson, Saddam Hussein freed two Americans who had been imprisoned for four months, charged with illegally crossing into Iraq from Kuwait.

Richardson continued his freelance diplomacy even while serving as governor. He had barely started his first term as governor when he met with two North Korean envoys in Santa Fe. He traveled to North Korea in 2007 to recover remains of American servicemen killed in the Korean War.

In 2006, he persuaded Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir to free Pulitzer Prize-winning American journalist Paul Salopek.

Richardson transformed the political landscape in New Mexico. He raised and spent record amounts on his campaigns. He brought Washington-style politics to an easygoing western state with a part-time Legislature.

Scandal over equipment at Los Alamos

Lawmakers, both Republicans and Democrats, complained that Richardson threatened retribution against those who opposed him. Former Democratic state Sen. Tim Jennings of Roswell once said Richardson was “beating people over the head” in his dealings with lobbyists on a health care issue. Richardson dismissed criticisms of his administrative style.

“Admittedly, I am aggressive. I use the bully pulpit of the governorship,” Richardson said. “But I don’t threaten retribution. They say I am a vindictive person. I just don’t believe that.”

Longtime friends and supporters attributed Richardson’s success partly to his relentlessness. Bob Gallagher, who headed the New Mexico Oil and Gas Association, said if Richardson wanted something done then “expect him to have a shotgun at the end of the hallway. Or a ramrod.”

After dropping out of the 2008 presidential race, Richardson endorsed Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton. That happened despite a long-standing friendship with the Clintons.

Obama later nominated Richardson as secretary of commerce, but Richardson withdrew in early 2009 because of a federal investigation into an alleged pay-to-play scheme involving his administration in New Mexico.

Months later, the federal investigation ended with no charges against Richardson and his former top aides. Richardson had a troubled tenure as energy secretary because of a scandal over missing computer equipment with nuclear weapons secrets at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the government’s investigation and prosecution of former nuclear weapons scientist Wen Ho Lee.

Richardson approved Lee’s firing at Los Alamos in 1999. Lee spent nine months in solitary confinement, charged with 59 counts of mishandling sensitive information. Lee later pleaded guilty to one count of mishandling computer files and was released with the apology of a federal judge.

William Blaine Richardson was born in Pasadena, California, but grew up in Mexico City with a Mexican mother and an American father who was a U.S. bank executive.

He attended prep school in Massachusetts and was a star baseball player. He later went to Tufts University and its graduate school in international relations, earning a master’s degree in international affairs.

Richardson moved to New Mexico in 1978 after working as a Capitol Hill staffer. He wanted to run for political office and said New Mexico, with its Hispanic roots, seemed like a good place. He campaigned for Congress just two years later — his only losing race.

In 1982, he won a new congressional seat from northern New Mexico that the state picked up in reapportionment. He resigned from Congress in 1997 to join the Clinton administration as U.N. ambassador and became secretary of energy in 1998, holding the post until the end of the Clinton presidency.

Source: AP

Following the announcement by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen that he was stepping down after nearly four decades in power, here are the world’s longest-serving leaders, except for monarchs.

40 years plus

Equatorial Guinea: The Soviet Union was still a decade from collapse when Teodoro Obiang Nguema came to power in a coup in the west African state of Equatorial Guinea in 1979.

Under his repressive nearly-44-year rule, Equatorial Guinea has become known as the “North Korea of Africa”.

Cameroon: The world’s oldest elected leader is 90-year-old Cameroonian President Paul Biya, who has ruled with an iron fist since November 1982.

Nicknamed “the Sphinx” for his inscrutable nature, leader, he won a seventh consecutive term in 2018 after elections marred by allegations of fraud.

30 years plus

Republic of Congo (also known as Congo-Brazzaville): Denis Sassou Nguesso, 78, has spent 38 years at the helm of the country in central Africa. He was president from 1979 to 1992, then returned in 1997 after a civil war and has remained in power ever since.

Uganda: Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, 78, has led the central African country for 37 years. He was re-elected to a contested sixth term in 2021.

Iran: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been supreme leader of the Islamic republic since the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989.

Tajikistan: Emomali Rakhmon, a former collective farm boss who came to power shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has had a firm grip on his poor, mountainous country for 30 years.

Eritrea: Former rebel leader Isaias Afwerki has been president of the reclusive Horn of Africa nation of Eritrea since it won independence from Ethiopia in May 1993.

– 20 years plus –

Belarus: President Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, has used Soviet-style repression to remain in power in Ukraine’s neighbour for 29 years.

Djibouti: President Ismail Omar Guelleh, who was re-elected to a fifth term in 2021, has been leader of the country that styles itself the “Dubai of Africa”, for 24 years.

Russia: Putin became prime minister in August 1999, then president the following year, and served two terms before swapping jobs with prime minister Dmitry Medvedev in 2008 only to reclaim the role of Kremlin leader in 2012.

Rwanda: Paul Kagame, a former Tutsi rebel leader who put an end to the Rwandan genocide of 1994, has been president of the small mountainous nation since 2000.

Syria: President Bashar al-Assad, who has clung onto power through a 12-year civil war, has also been in power for 23 years.

Longest ever: Castro

The longest-serving leader in history was Cuba’s revolutionary hero Fidel Castro, who spent 49 years in power. When he handed over in 2008 in his early 80s, it was to his brother Raul.

Source: AFP

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomed new security commitments from the G7 powers on Wednesday, but warned that these could not be a substitute for eventual NATO membership.

Speaking after talks with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, Zelensky said the G7 promises should be seen “not instead of NATO, but as security guarantees on our way to integration”.

“We can state that the results of this summit are good, but should we receive an invitation, then that would be the optimum,” he said at NATO’s summit in Vilnius.

The G7 announcement will provide a framework under which individual nations will later agree bilateral deals with Kyiv detailing the weapons they will give.

The West wants to send a message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he cannot keep the war grinding in the hope that international backing for Ukraine will eventually falter.

“This multilateral declaration will send a significant signal to Russia that time is not on its side,” White House advisor for European affairs Amanda Sloat said.

US President Joe Biden has previously suggested a model for Ukraine similar to one under which Washington has committed to giving Israel $3.8 billion in military aid per year over a decade.

Russia launched drone strikes on Kyiv for the second night in a row, the head of the city’s military administration said early Wednesday.

All of the Iran-made Shahed explosive drones launched at Kyiv were were “detected and destroyed”, Sergiy Popko said on Telegram, adding “there was no information about victims or destruction as of now”.

‘Absurd’ 

Western backers have already sent weapons worth tens of billions to Ukraine to help it fight back against Russia’s invasion.

Germany on Tuesday said it would provide more tanks, Patriot missile defences and armour vehicles worth another 700 million euros ($772 million).

France said it was sending long-range missiles and a coalition of 11 nations announced they will start training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 jets from next month.

But the pledges, while desperately needed by Ukraine’s troops, fall short of Zelensky’s aspirations of putting Kyiv under NATO’s collective defence umbrella.

NATO leaders vowed after the first day of their summit that “Ukraine’s future is in NATO” and shortened the eventual process Kyiv would have to go through to enter the alliance. 

“We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met,” a statement said.

But that didn’t go much beyond a 2008 vow on future membership, and reflects the concerns of dominant power the United States about being dragged into a potentially nuclear conflict with Russia.

Zelensky had earlier fired a broadside saying that failure to issue Ukraine a timeframe for joining was “absurd”. “Uncertainty is weakness,” he thundered.

Frustration

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said she understood Ukraine’s “frustration” as it desperately seeks to get into NATO’s protective embrace.

She said she hoped written security commitments would show Ukraine that Western arms will keep flowing even if leaders are voted out in key countries supporting Kyiv.

As part of their attempt to convince Zelensky that Kyiv is moving closer to the alliance, NATO organised an inaugural meeting of a Ukraine-NATO council with him in Vilnius.

That gives him more of a seat around the table to set the agenda in talks with the alliance, but is still far from being in the club.

On the sidelines of the sit-down, Zelensky held meetings with key allies, including Biden, to press for more support.

Biden will later also give a keynote speech at Vilnius university laying out Washington’s commitment to defending every inch of NATO territory.

Source: AFP

Mike Pence announced Wednesday his entry into the 2024 United States presidential election, as the former vice president goes up against his ex-boss Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.

The evangelical Christian is scheduled to appear at a campaign launch event the same day in the early-voting state of Iowa — joining an already crowded field that includes Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Trump’s closest competition.

“Today, before God and my family, I’m announcing I’m running for president of the United States,” he said in an online campaign video.

Pence’s announcement comes two days after papers filed with the US Federal Election Commission showed he had formally entered the race.

“I believe in the American people, and I have faith God is not done with America yet,” the 64-year-old wrote in a tweet accompanying the video.

“Together, we can bring this Country back, and the best days for the Greatest Nation on Earth are yet to come!”

Pence honed his reputation as an unstintingly loyal vice president who stuck with Trump throughout a scandal-plagued four years in the White House, and brought the religious right into the tent.

But he became a pariah in Trumpworld after rejecting the Republican leader’s demands that he overturn the 2020 election in his role as president of the Senate.

Berated constantly by Trump after Joe Biden’s election victory — and even heckled at a conservative conference with chants of “traitor!” — Pence continued to praise the tycoon in public.

That changed after Trump’s torrent of false claims of election fraud led to a mob chanting for Pence to be hanged at the US Capitol.

Pence announced his presidential run a day after former New Jersey governor Chris Christie joined the contest.

Former governors Nikki Haley and Asa Hutchinson are also in the race, while North Dakota’s chief executive Doug Burgum is also due to announce on Wednesday.

Polls show Trump as the overwhelming early front runner, regularly posting leads on DeSantis in excess of 30 points. None of the other candidates is achieving double figures.

But the former president is facing multiple criminal investigations into his personal and professional conduct that have already yielded dozens of felony charges in New York.

Source: AFP

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan defeated opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday’s Turkish presidential election runoff – a victory analysts ascribe to Erdogan’s focus on identity issues and use of the government’s resources, as well as Kilicdaroglu’s tepid leadership of a precarious coalition.

The first round was a shock to many Western observers who thought they might finally see the back of Erdogan. But after the Turkish president came within a whisker of re-election in that ballot, his second-round victory surprised no one. He defeated opposition challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu with 52.1 percent of the vote.

“I will be here until I’m in the grave,” Erdogan said as he addressed jubilant supporters from an open-top bus in Istanbul.

These polls belied the Western cliché that elections are about “the economy, stupid”. Along with his much-criticised response to February’s devastating earthquakes, Turkey’s economic woes looked like a big weakness for Erdogan at the outset of the campaign.

While growth remains robust, five years of an inflation and currency crisis has seen the cost of living soar for many Turks – a major reversal after the abundant economic gains after Erdogan first took power in 2003. Experts blame this crisis on Erdogan’s unorthodox belief that cutting interest rates helps reduce inflation while all mainstream economic theories hold that higher interest rates are required to calm rampant inflation in an economy.

Identity politics

But culture war has been at the heart of Turkish politics ever since Mustafa Kemal Ataturk made the country a modern nation-state in 1923, introducing strict secularism as he transformed Turkey along Westernising lines. Erdogan’s traditional constituency of socially conservative Muslim voters in the Anatolian heartland have always seen him as their champion in this culture war. A gifted orator and political strategist, Erdogan has already gone down in history as the leader who smashed secular Kemalism’s long hegemony over Turkish politics.

“Erdogan won primarily because he was once again able to shift the focus from socio-economic issues to identity issues,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Ankara bureau.

Erdogan also instrumentalised Turkey’s long fight against Kurdish militant group the PKK, which has waged a guerrilla war against the Turkish state punctuated by ceasefires since 1984 and is classified as a terrorist group by the EU and the US as well as Turkey.

Kilicdaroglu won the support of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Erdogan then accused the opposition of having links to terrorism, saying opposition leaders went into “dark rooms to sit and bargain” with militants.

“He was particularly successful in directing the anger of Turkish society towards the PKK [against] the opposition,” Unluhisarcikli noted.

Meanwhile, Kilicdaroglu’s big-tent approach was always going to be a tremendous challenge. The opposition contender had to juggle the Nation Alliance – the heterogenous six-party coalition behind his candidacy, which included the nationalist Good Party – with the HDP’s endorsement of his candidacy.

After Kilicdaroglu’s disappointing first-round performance, he won the support of the nationalist Victory Party’s Umit Ozdag and adopted his hard line on the Kurdish issue – which evidently risked alienating the millions of Kurdish voters Kilicdaroglu needed.

“The diversity of the opposition alliance was both an advantage and a disadvantage,” Unluhisarcikli observed. “It was an advantage because it made it possible for Kilicdaroglu to address a wider audience. It was a disadvantage because it led to an image of dysfunctionality. Moreover, while most voters could find an element they could identify with in the opposition alliance, they could also find one that they could not tolerate.”

When he was performing well in opinion polls ahead of the first round, Kilicdaroglu’s unassuming, professorial demeanour looked like a potential boon after two decades of Erdogan’s often mercurial style. But in reality Kilicdaroglu’s image was that of a “lacklustre candidate” backed by a “wobbly coalition”, said Howard Eissenstat, a Turkey specialist at St. Lawrence University and the Middle East Institute in Washington DC.

‘Authoritarian reasons’

Beyond the issues and personalities, Erdogan was able to mobilise resources surpassing the typical advantages of incumbency. He made lavish offers to voters using the state’s largesse, notably promising discounted gas bills for a year. Erdogan’s presidential power was helpful to his campaign in other ways, as the government controls 90% of the national media and has effectively curtailed the power of the independent press, seeing Turkey fall to 165 out of 180 in the World Press Freedom Index.

Highlighting restrictions on press freedom, observers from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe found during the campaign that the polls were “marked by an unlevel playing field” even if they were “still competitive”.

“There are electoral reasons why Erdogan won and there are authoritarian reasons why he won,” Eissenstat said, emphasising that both sides of this equation are crucial.

“Given Erdogan’s gross mismanagement of the economy, his electoral skills would mean little without the authoritarian components: his control of 90% of the media, his use of the courts to limit the opposition, his use of government resources to support his own campaign,” Eissenstat continued. “As the saying goes, ‘only amateurs try to steal elections on election day’: Erdogan is no amateur. Election day had some irregularities, but nothing wildly out of the ordinary. Erdogan controlled every aspect of how the election was [run] and that is the key explanation for why he won.”

All that said, Kilicdaroglu came closer to defeating Erdogan than any previous opposition standard-bearer. In the 2018 presidential elections many Western observers thought Muharrem Ince had a decent chance of winning. But Erdogan clinched re-election in the first round, despite a lively campaign from the candidate representing Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party.

“The second round was closer than I thought it would be,” Eissenstat said. “The opposition did very well given the limits it was working under, and the voter turnout was higher than I expected.”

“I am in Turkey right now and my sense from conversations before the run-off [was] that opposition voters were demoralised and that many would stay home,” Eissenstat continued. “In the event, the Turkish electorate’s belief in the moral importance of voting trumped their hopelessness. The exception was the Kurdish vote, which clearly was dampened by Kilicdaroglu’s swerve to the right in the second round.”

Potential successors?

But there is no mistaking the sense of jubilation among Erdogan and his supporters as he enters his third decade in power. This year is symbolic, too, as Turkey is marking a century since Ataturk made it a nation-state.

Beneath the congratulations pouring in from Washington to Moscow, there is a clear divide between the perspectives of Western governments and those of Turkey’s geopolitical partners, pre-eminently Russia. After the Western commentariat hailed Erdogan as a reformer in the 2000s, their attitudes soured during the following decade, as he ramped up an assertive foreign policy amid his turn towards illiberal democracy at home.

How the West, Russia see Turkey’s presidential elections

Russia will “celebrate” Erdogan’s victory as Moscow sees his “transactionalism as convenient” – while “for the West, he will continue to be a challenge, but they will try to make the best of it”, Eissenstat said. “They won’t be happy, but in the end, they want to work with Turkey and Erdogan is its president.”

On foreign and domestic policy alike, Eissenstat expects Erdogan is unlikely to make any major changes during this new presidential term.

“He will likely make some half-hearted nods at a reset with some Western powers and with the markets to try to help stabilise the economy, but I think the general trajectory of his rule is set,” Eissenstat said. “I don’t expect him to become wildly more repressive and I certainly don’t expect him to liberalise.”  

Nevertheless, both analysts foresee one key difference in the 69-year-old Erdogan’s third term: he’s likely to hand-pick his political successor.

Source: AFP

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received an invitation to next week’s Arab summit in Saudi Arabia, the presidency said Wednesday, the first such invitation since the country’s war began in 2011.

Assad received an invitation from Saudi King Salman “to participate in the thirty-second Arab League summit, which will be held in Jeddah on May 19”, the Syrian presidency said in a statement.

Assad said the summit “will enhance joint Arab action to achieve the aspirations of the Arab peoples,” the statement added.

Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Jordan, Nayef bin Bandar al-Sudairi, delivered the invitation.

On Sunday, the Arab League welcomed back Syria’s government, securing Assad’s return to the Arab fold after years of isolation.

The pan-Arab body suspended Damascus in November 2011 over its crackdown on protests that spiralled into a war that has killed more than 500,000 people, displaced millions and battered the country’s infrastructure and industry.

The last Arab League summit Assad attended was in 2010 in Libya.

The invitation comes a day after Riyadh and Damascus announced that work would resume at their respective diplomatic missions in Syria and Saudi Arabia, after more than a decade of severed ties.

Assad had been politically isolated in the region since the war began, but a flurry of diplomatic activity has been underway in recent weeks after a decision by arch-rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran, a close ally of Damascus, to resume ties shifted the political landscape.

Source: AFP